Finance The Week That Was

Global financial markets navigated a week of divergent signals and regional fortunes, culminating in a third winning week out of the last four for major US indices. The dominant narrative was one of resilience, particularly in the United States, where strong economic data and a robust start to the corporate earnings season propelled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to new all-time highs before a quiet consolidation into the weekend. This performance was underpinned by a growing belief in a “soft landing” for the US economy, where growth remains firm even as inflation expectations cool, giving the Federal Reserve potential room to ease monetary policy later in the year.

The second week of July 2025 delivered a stark “tale of two halves” for global financial markets, as initial optimism gave way to a wave of anxiety. Early in the week, major stock indices, particularly in the United States, climbed to new record highs, buoyed by the lingering effects of strong corporate earnings and hopes for stable interest rate policies. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both notched all-time peaks on Thursday, continuing a multi-week winning streak. However, this momentum came to an abrupt halt on Friday. A sharp reversal pulled markets into negative territory for the week, driven by the sudden re-emergence of geopolitical risk as a primary concern for investors.

The week ending July 4, 2025, was defined by a stark divergence in global equity markets. United States stock markets, buoyed by a potent cocktail of strong domestic economic news and fresh fiscal stimulus, surged to new record highs, seemingly insulated from growing global headwinds. In sharp contrast, markets across Europe and much of Asia faltered, weighed down by a pervasive sense of anxiety over the impending July 9 deadline for US trade tariffs. Investor sentiment became a tale of two worlds: one of confidence in American economic resilience and another of deep-seated caution over the profound uncertainty of global trade policy.

Global equity markets posted a powerful and broad-based rally in the week ending June 27, 2025, with several major indices in the United States, Europe, and Asia reaching record or multi-year highs. The surge was propelled by a significant “risk-on” shift in investor sentiment, ignited by a potent dual catalyst: the de-escalation of geopolitical tensions and growing optimism surrounding international trade agreements. A ceasefire between Iran and Israel, coupled with constructive dialogue between the U.S. and its key trading partners, China and the European Union, allowed a significant geopolitical risk premium to evaporate from the market. This was most clearly observed in commodity markets, where safe-haven assets like gold and oil retreated while industrial metals surged.

The week ending June 20, 2025, was characterised by a tense tug-of-war between escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a widening divergence in monetary policy among the world’s major central banks. Global equity markets struggled for clear direction as investors grappled with these conflicting forces. A palpable flight to safety was evident across asset classes, with heightened volatility, a stronger U.S. dollar, and a surge in gold prices. This risk-off sentiment was primarily fueled by an intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran, which overshadowed economic data and corporate earnings for much of the week.

The week ending June 13, 2025, will be etched in the memory of global investors as a stark reminder of the primacy of geopolitical risk. What began as a period of cautious optimism, carefully constructed on a foundation of encouraging inflation data from the United States and dovish central bank policy in Europe, was violently upended in the final trading session. The narrative of the week, and potentially the weeks to come, was irrevocably redefined by a single, seismic event: reports of Israeli military strikes on nuclear and military facilities within Iran.1