The Geopolitical Anatomy of a Negotiated Stalemate: Iran, Israel, the United States, and the Fragile Regional Ceasefire of 2026

Historical Genesis: From the Twelve-Day War to the Outbreak of the 2026 Conflict

The contemporary security architecture of West Asia is defined by a highly unstable, multi-layered conflict system that escalated rapidly from a series of localised confrontations into a full-scale regional war¹. To understand the fragility of the current ceasefire, the geopolitical trajectory must be traced back to the collapse of the June 2025 Twelve-Day War ceasefire³. Brokered under the joint mediation of the United States and Qatar, the 2025 truce went into effect on June 24, following a highly structured 24-hour wind-down sequence³. Under those terms, Iran initiated a complete cessation of hostilities, followed twelve hours later by Israel, in a sequenced mechanism designed to bring an official end to the twelve days of intense kinetic exchanges³.

However, the structural defects of the 2025 ceasefire became apparent almost immediately³. In the opening hours of the truce, Iranian air defences in Tehran engaged active targets, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched three successive salvos of ballistic missiles toward Beersheba³. Although Israeli defences successfully intercepted two additional Iranian missiles over Northern Israel later that morning, the truce managed to persist in a highly degraded state³. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu heralded the campaign—codenamed Operation Rising Lion by Israel and supported by the joint US-Israeli Operation Midnight Hammer—as a “historic victory” that had successfully neutralised Iran’s immediate ballistic missile and nuclear enrichment ambitions². On June 27, 2025, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz issued a stern enforcement plan, warning that the ceasefire would remain valid only as long as Tehran refrained from reconstituting its nuclear cascades or ballistic missile infrastructure³.

Independent military assessments, including a comprehensive study by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), concluded that while the 2025 strikes severely damaged Iran’s enrichment capacity by destroying thousands of gas centrifuges at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, the operations were strictly cost-imposing measures³. They did not systematically target the domestic security apparatus or attempt to topple the clerical regime³. Consequently, the strategic deterrence established in mid-2025 was fundamentally temporary⁶.

The geopolitical balance deteriorated further in January 2026, when severe economic mismanagement, infrastructure failures, and hyperinflation triggered the largest domestic protests in Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution⁷. The Iranian government responded with extreme domestic repression, utilising lethal force to suppress the demonstrations and killing thousands of protesters⁷. In response to the state-sponsored violence, US President Donald Trump ordered the largest military buildup in the Persian Gulf since the 2003 invasion of Iraq⁸. Though indirect negotiations briefly opened in mid-February to establish a nuclear settlement, the intense regional friction and the deployment of massive US naval assets created a highly volatile environment⁸. Citing the imminent threat of Iranian retaliation and a determination to permanently dismantle Tehran’s nuclear program, the Trump administration launched a preemptive joint military campaign with Israel on February 28, 2026, officially initiating the 2026 Iran War, or the Third Gulf War².

Operation Epic Fury: Strategic Execution, Allied Support, and System-Level Degradation

Codenamed Operation Epic Fury by the United States and Operation Roaring Lion by Israel, the joint military campaign began midmorning on February 28, 2026, with an overwhelming wave of nearly 900 strikes executed in the first twelve hours². The primary operational objective was to execute a rapid, decisive decapitation of Iran’s political-military leadership while simultaneously neutralising its offensive missile infrastructure, air defences, and naval assets⁴.

The initial wave successfully targeted and killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei before he could relocate to a secure bunker facility². The opening strikes also eliminated key military leaders, including IRGC Commander Hossein Salami, Armed Forces Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri, and Aerospace Force Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh¹³. While Ali Larijani, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, was widely believed to have assumed de facto leadership of the state in the immediate aftermath of Khamenei’s death, he too was assassinated in subsequent waves of strikes on February 28⁸.

Despite the high precision of the strikes, the campaign incurred catastrophic civilian casualties⁸. On the first day of operations, a US missile targeting an IRGC naval base in Minab, near Bandar Abbas, struck the adjacent Shajareh Tayyebeh Elementary School⁹. The resulting structural collapse killed 156 civilians, including 120 schoolgirls, 26 female teachers, and several parents, generating widespread international condemnation and fueling a wave of fierce nationalist solidarity within Iran¹⁵.

The execution of Operation Epic Fury relied heavily on access to a broad network of European and regional military installations¹⁷. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte publicly revealed that the Italian government had permitted more than 500 US combat aircraft to launch sorties from bases on Italian soil¹⁷. This revelation triggered a severe political crisis in Rome for Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who had previously assured parliament that Italy had neither supported nor participated in the military campaign against Iran¹⁷. While Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto defended the government by asserting that only non-kinetic, logistical activities were authorised under strict historical protocols, opposition parties demanded formal investigations into the covert utilisation of Italian airspace¹⁷.

On the strategic nuclear front, Operation Epic Fury focused heavily on entombed facilities⁵. US B-2 stealth bombers and Tomahawk cruise missiles targeted the highly fortified nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan⁵. Nuclear expert David Albright assessed that the campaign successfully degraded 90% of Iran’s defence industrial base, effectively neutralising its centrifuge manufacturing capabilities⁵. At Fordow, high-yield bunker-buster munitions penetrated the mountain ventilation shafts, crushing the uranium enrichment cylinders and entombing the complex, rendering it a highly toxic nuclear waste site⁵. Strikingly, US intelligence opted to bypass the Pickaxe Mountain underground facility near Natanz, judging that the physical progress at the site did not yet warrant the expenditure of scarce strategic munitions⁵.

Despite these tactical successes, the US Air Force’s regional operational capacity was severely degraded, suffering at least 42 aircraft lost or damaged over the course of the 38-day intensive campaign¹².

U.S. Aircraft Losses During Operation Epic Fury:

The extensive loss of high-demand airframes—particularly the aging E-3 Sentry and strategic refuelers—strained the US military maintenance infrastructure, forcing the Pentagon to submit an emergency supplemental budget request to Congress totalling $67 billion to cover immediate operational and repair costs²⁰.

The Humanitarian and Material Ledger of the 2026 War

The kinetic phase of the 2026 war, often characterised as the “Third Gulf War,” generated unprecedented casualties, physical destruction, and macroeconomic volatility across the global energy grid². The conflict expanded far beyond the borders of Iran and Israel, engulfing neighbouring Arab states that hosted Western forces or sought to maintain transit routes through the Strait of Hormuz².

The closing of the Strait by the IRGC Navy disrupted approximately 20% of the global oil and gas supply, causing Brent crude prices to skyrocket to $106 per barrel by mid-March²¹. For import-dependent economies, particularly in Asia and South America, the resulting inflationary pressure and spike in maritime insurance rates threatened to trigger a deep global recession⁶.

To capture the physical and human scale of the 2026 conflict, the following statistics represent the compiled assessments of regional governments, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), and independent monitors such as the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA)²:

Beyond the immediate theatre, the strategic costs extended to globalised supply chains²¹. Flight corridors across West Asia were completely closed, paralysing the aviation and tourism sectors⁸. Security risks in Cyprus escalated dramatically following an Iranian-aligned drone attack on the UK’s Akrotiri military base, forcing several European states to preemptively deploy rapid-reaction forces to protect their Mediterranean logistics⁷.

The Islamabad Memorandum: The 14-Point Diplomatic Architecture

By June 2026, the combination of mounting daily economic costs, the complete disruption of commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and a military stalemate forced the United States and Iran back to the negotiating table²⁸. Under the mediation of Pakistan, Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, the two nations drafted a transitional framework to halt the conflict¹⁴.

On June 17, 2026, President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian remotely signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran²⁹. Trump signed the document at the Palace of Versailles during a formal dinner with French President Emmanuel Macron, while Pezeshkian signed concurrently in Tehran, with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif formally endorsing the text as the official mediator on June 18²⁶.

The 14 Articles of the Islamabad Memorandum:

1. Cessation of Hostilities: Immediate, permanent termination of military strikes on all fronts, including Lebanon [cite: 31, 32].
2. Sovereign Equality: Explicit commitment to respect territorial integrity and refrain from internal interference [cite: 31, 32].
3. Treaty Window: Establishment of a compressed 60-day period to negotiate a permanent regional peace treaty [cite: 31, 32].
4. Blockade Removal: U.S. to lift its naval blockade within 30 days and withdraw forces from the Iranian littoral [cite: 31, 32].
5. Hormuz Open Passage: Iran to guarantee safe, toll-free passage for commercial vessels for exactly 60 days [cite: 29, 32].
6. Development Fund: Commitment to develop a $300 billion private-sector-funded Iranian reconstruction plan [cite: 32, 33].
7. Sanctions Relief: Progressive schedule to terminate all unilateral, primary, secondary, and UN Security Council sanctions [cite: 32].
8. Proliferation Commitments: Iran reaffirms NPT obligations, agreeing to down-blend highly enriched uranium to reactor-grade [cite: 6, 33].
9. Strategic Status Quo: Both sides freeze military movements; U.S. commits to zero new sanctions or force deployments [cite: 32].
10. Oil Export Waivers: Immediate issuance of U.S. Treasury licenses to permit the global sale of Iranian crude oil [cite: 32, 34].
11. Unfreezing Assets: Releasing restricted Iranian capital in offshore accounts in a structured, multi-tranche mechanism [cite: 29, 33].
12. Bilateral Engagement: Creation of direct, technical-level working groups to resolve remaining nuclear files [cite: 35].
13. Phased Execution: Immediate execution of Articles 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11, with subsequent negotiations on other paragraphs [cite: 29, 36].
14. Binding UNSC Ratification: Final, permanent treaty to be formally endorsed by a binding UN Security Council resolution [cite: 35, 36].

To give immediate legal effect to Article 10 of the memorandum, the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued Iran General License X on June 22, 2026³⁷. This license authorised global financial institutions, insurers, and maritime transporters to process and support shipments of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and petrochemical derivatives³⁷.

This immediate waiver allowed Iran to market its energy resources, restoring a massive revenue stream and granting Tehran immediate access to $20 billion in hard currency²⁹. This sum was divided into $12 billion in unfrozen foreign reserves and $8 billion in rapid-onset oil revenues, effectively bypassing the European Union and United Kingdom sanctions that officially remained in force³⁰.

However, the strategic compromise generated intense criticism from conservative defence analysts³⁸. The Islamabad MoU was heavily criticised for failing to place any restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missile program or its regional support for non-state armed groups, such as the Houthis in Yemen or the Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq³⁰. Critics accused President Trump of abandoning his primary war aims³⁸. Trump defended the omission by arguing that it was “unfair” to deny Iran defensive missiles while neighbouring states retained equivalent offensive capabilities³⁰.

Furthermore, the $300 billion reconstruction program—which Vice President JD Vance claimed would be funded by a “Gulf Coast Coalition” of wealthy GCC states—provoked deep resentment in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, as those nations were expected to subsidise the economic recovery of their primary regional rival²⁶.

The Strategic Rift in Lebanon: Opposing Peace Tracks and the Risk of Civil War

While the Islamabad MoU sought to establish a broad, regional de-escalation framework, it directly collided with the security priorities of Israel and the sovereign government of Lebanon³⁹. The conflict in Lebanon had reignited on March 2, 2026, when Hezbollah launched a massive wave of more than 1,300 rockets and drones into northern Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Ali Khamenei¹.

Israel responded by launching a ground invasion of southern Lebanon, establishing a 10-kilometre security zone along the “Yellow Line” and carrying out daily precision strikes against Hezbollah figures¹. This campaign culminated in Operation Eternal Darkness on April 8, 2026, during which 100 Israeli warplanes launched 100 airstrikes in just ten minutes across southern Lebanon and Beirut, killing 350 people—including Ali Yusuf Harshi, the secretary to Hezbollah’s leadership—and wounding over 1,200⁴².

To halt the devastation, a series of fragile, US-mediated ceasefires were negotiated between the Lebanese government under President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and the Israeli government²². An initial 10-day truce effective on April 16 was followed by successive extensions on April 23 and May 15, culminating in a June 1 agreement in which Israel committed to cease targeting Beirut’s southern suburbs⁴⁶.

On June 26, 2026, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a breakthrough in Washington: the signing of the U.S.-Israel-Lebanon Trilateral Framework Agreement on Recognised Sovereignty, Mutual Security and Peaceful Relations²⁴.

Signed by Israeli Ambassador Yechiel Leiter, Lebanese Ambassador Nada Hamadeh Moawad, and State Department Chief of Staff Daniel Holler, the Trilateral Framework established a conditional, performance-based roadmap for peace²⁴:

• Bilateral Direct Diplomacy: Israel and Lebanon formally declared their intent to end the state of war that had persisted since 1948⁴⁵.
• Pilot Zones: Israel agreed to withdraw its forces from two specific “pilot zones” (one south of the Litani River, and one north of it within the expanded security zone)⁴⁸.
• LAF Deployment: The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) would deploy to these pilot zones, assume full security control, and begin the verified disarmament of Hezbollah and other non-state armed groups⁴⁵.
• US Security Funding: The United States committed $100 million in immediate humanitarian assistance through the UN, and $30 million to reimburse and bolster the operational capabilities of the LAF²⁴.
• Sovereign Monopoly on Force: The Lebanese government explicitly rejected the right of any domestic or foreign non-state actor to use force on its behalf²⁴.
• Legal Immunity: Both countries agreed to cease all hostile actions in international legal forums, shielding the IDF from prosecution for war crimes committed inside Lebanon³⁹.

The Structural Collision of the 2026 Ceasefires:

The structural incompatibility of these two peace tracks created an immediate crisis³⁹. Hezbollah and its political allies fiercely rejected the Washington Trilateral Framework⁴⁵. Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem denounced the deal as a “humiliation and a surrender of sovereignty,” declaring that the organisation would never surrender its weapons or accept unilateral Israeli dictates⁴⁰.

Senior Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah warned that any attempt by the Lebanese Armed Forces to enforce the Washington agreement on the ground would instantly plunge the country into a bloody civil war⁴⁵. This warning was reinforced by mass street demonstrations in Beirut, where Hezbollah supporters clashed with security forces, prompting Lebanon’s public prosecutor, Judge Ahmed Rami al-Hajj, to place all national security agencies on high alert to prevent widespread riots⁴⁵.

Sovereignty and Maritime Coercion: The Strait of Hormuz Toll System

The most immediate threat to the global economy remains the unresolved dispute over the transit regime of the Strait of Hormuz⁶. While Article 5 of the Islamabad MoU required Iran to facilitate safe, unhindered commercial passage for 60 days, the newly installed regime under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has sought to permanently alter the legal status of the waterway³⁰.

Because Iran signed but never ratified the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), Tehran rejects international transit passage rules⁵⁷. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf announced that the Strait “will never return to its pre-war conditions,” and has initiated joint talks with the Sultanate of Oman to establish a bilateral “administration of navigation”³⁰.

This proposed regime seeks to enforce a mandatory toll system, requiring all transit vessels to pay maritime service fees denominated in Chinese yuan and coordinate their physical routes directly with the Iranian Coast Guard⁸. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei instructed negotiators that the unblocking of the waterway must be leveraged for direct economic gain, with all toll revenues funnelled to families of IRGC martyrs, veterans, and domestic reconstruction⁵⁸.

This position was rejected by the United States and its regional GCC allies²⁶. During his diplomatic tour of the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain, Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted that the Strait must remain completely toll-free, warning that the US Navy would enforce freedom of navigation by force³⁹.

The dispute escalated sharply on June 25, 2026, when an Iranian-aligned attack drone struck the upper deck of a large commercial cargo vessel transiting the Strait, causing minor hull damage and forcing the International Maritime Organisation to temporarily pause all civilian ship evacuations through the chokepoint⁹. On June 26, President Trump ordered direct military retaliation, with CENTCOM air assets striking Iranian missile storage sites, drone launch facilities, and coastal radar stations along the southern coast¹⁵.

The IRGC Navy quickly retaliated on June 28, launching a joint ballistic missile and drone attack against US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, claiming the destruction of eight military facilities in what it termed “hell on the regional forces”¹⁵. Despite the rapid escalation, a high-level diplomatic intervention by Qatari and Pakistani mediators successfully prevented a slide back into total war¹⁴.

On June 28, a US official confirmed that both nations had agreed to halt active hostilities and stand down their forces⁴⁰. To resolve the underlying dispute over transit fees and navigation routes, both Washington and Tehran agreed to dispatch senior delegations to Doha, Qatar, to open technical stabilization talks⁶².

Parallel Governance Models: Trump’s “Peace through Strength” and the Gaza Board of Peace

To understand the broader strategic doctrine undergirding the Trump administration’s West Asian policy, a comparative analysis must be drawn between the “offshore suzerainty” model applied to Iran and Lebanon, and the direct, colonial-style governance implemented in the Gaza Strip⁶³. Under the offshore suzerainty paradigm, the United States avoids committing ground forces, relying instead on strategic naval blockades, precision air strikes, and unilateral financial sanctions to force compliance while leaving domestic administration in the hands of weakened sovereign states³⁰.

Conversely, in Gaza, the administration has utilised the October 2025 US-brokered ceasefire to establish a direct, authoritarian administrative entity known as the Board of Peace⁶³.

Authorised by the UN Security Council to oversee the administration of the territory until December 31, 2027, the Board of Peace represents a highly unilateral governance model⁶³:

• Executive Leadership: The Board of Peace is chaired directly by Donald Trump, who holds the unilateral authority to establish or waive all legal immunities within the territory⁶³.
• The Yellow Line: Gaza is physically bisected by a heavily fortified, militarized boundary⁶⁵. Approximately two million Palestinian civilians (40% of the territory) remain under Hamas administrative control, while the remaining 60% is occupied and patrolled by the IDF⁶⁵.
• International Stabilisation Force (ISF): A projected 20,000-strong international military force has been deployed to disarm Hamas and secure the enclave⁶³. Egypt has committed extensive border troops to the ISF, alongside military and police delegations dispatched by Kosovo and Albania⁶⁵.
• Sweeping Legal Immunity: A highly controversial draft resolution, labelled “sensitive but unclassified,” seeks to grant absolute legal immunity to all members of the Board of Peace, the Office of the High Representative (OHR), the ISF, Palestinian technocrats, and private security contractors, insulating them from arrest, detention, or prosecution in any Gaza court⁶³.
• Eminent Domain and Property Confiscation: The draft resolution includes a clause granting the Board of Peace the right to acquire any public property or land in Gaza “free of charge” to construct military bases, administrative buildings, and logistical hubs⁶³. Omar Shakir, executive director of the human rights organisation Dawn, condemned the provision as a repressed land-grab that mirrors the most severe forms of territorial confiscation⁶³.

This Gaza paradigm demonstrates that where the administration cannot rely on offshore suzerainty, it is willing to establish direct, internationally insulated administrative mechanisms to enforce security outcomes, irrespective of local sovereign aspirations or international legal norms⁶³.

Synthesis: Geopolitical Trajectories and the Fragile Triumvirate

The current ceasefire between Iran, Israel, and the United States represents a volatile regional equilibrium⁶. Each actor is operating under severe systemic constraints that compel short-term compliance while ensuring long-term friction⁶:

The United States is attempting to balance the preservation of its global economic stability with a desire to minimise direct ground engagements in West Asia²¹. By utilising offshore suzerainty, Washington has successfully degraded Iran’s conventional military and nuclear infrastructure, but has been forced to accept a flawed, highly temporary ceasefire that leaves Tehran’s missile and proxy networks intact⁶.

Iran’s clerical establishment has survived a decapitation campaign and severe economic shock, but faces a crisis of domestic legitimacy⁷. To prevent total collapse, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian are utilising the 60-day Islamabad MoU window to secure immediate financial relief, unfreeze global reserves, and slowly reconstitute their defensive industrial base¹⁶. However, the regime’s ideological commitment to regional hegemony and its determination to leverage the Strait of Hormuz ensure that Tehran will continue to push the boundaries of the truce³⁰.

Israel remains committed to a unilateral doctrine of self-defense²³. While the Netanyahu government has signed the Washington Trilateral Framework to showcase a diplomatic path toward neutralising Hezbollah, the IDF has no intention of abandoning its southern Lebanese security zone or permitting the return of displaced Lebanese civilians as long as any armed presence remains south of the Litani River⁴¹. Israel views the US-Iran diplomatic track as a dangerous compromise that directly undercuts its military achievements¹⁸.

Ultimately, the 2026 ceasefire is a conflict-management instrument designed to manage, rather than resolve, a systemic regional crisis⁶. The structural contradictions between the US-Iran MoU and the Washington Trilateral Framework, the looming dispute over navigation fees in the Strait of Hormuz, and the domestic fragility of both the Iranian and Lebanese governments ensure that the current peace remains highly precarious³⁹. While the intensive combat of the Third Gulf War has paused, the underlying regional struggle continues, leaving West Asia positioned on the edge of a renewed and potentially more devastating escalation².

Geopolitical Risk Advisory Disclaimer

This research report is prepared for informational, academic, and professional strategic planning purposes only. The information, statistics, and geopolitical risk assessments contained herein are derived from publicly available sources and compiled military intelligence briefings. They do not constitute formal investment, legal, security, or financial advice. Geopolitical conditions are highly volatile and subject to rapid, unannounced changes. Readers and organisations are strongly advised to conduct independent due diligence and consult with qualified legal, financial, and security risk professionals prior to making operational, personnel, or investment commitments in the West Asian theatre.

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44. US-Israel-Lebanon sign trilateral framework agreement aimed at dismantling Hezbollah, https://www.jpost.com/international/article-900621
45. US, Israel, Lebanon sign trilateral framework agreement after 4 days of talks in DC, https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/us-israel-lebanon-sign-trilateral-framework-agreement-after-4-days-of-talks-in-washington-2935292-2026-06-26
46. ‘First step towards peace’: Israel, Lebanon sign framework agreement with US; Hezbollah warns of civil war, https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/first-step-towards-peace-israel-lebanon-sign-framework-agreement-with-us-hezbollah-warns-against-it-101782505933930.html
47. US, Iran said to agree to halt Hormuz attacks, hold talks about issue in Qatar on Tuesday, https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-june-28-2026/
48. Israel-Lebanon deal: Takeaways from trilateral framework, how key players have reacted, https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-global/israel-lebanon-us-trilateral-framework-hezbollah-10761770/
49. June 27: Netanyahu maintains Israel ‘created conditions’ for Iranian regime’s collapse, https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-june-27-2026/
50. Middle East crisis: Rubio and Vance hold call with Lebanon’s president; Trump claims Iran has agreed to nuclear inspections ‘long into future’ – as it happened, https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/jun/23/iran-us-israel-lebanon-un-peace-deal-nuclear-iaea-frozen-assets-strait-of-hormuz-latest-news-updates
51. Iran Update Special Report, May 26, 2026 – Institute for the Study of War, https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-special-report-may-25-2026-2/
52. Secret correspondence claims suggest tensions at top of Iranian government, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/21/secret-correspondence-iranian-government-tensions-supreme-leader
53. Trump accuses Iran of ‘foolish’ ceasefire violation by firing on ships in Hormuz, https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-accuses-iran-of-foolish-ceasefire-violation-by-firing-on-ships-in-hormuz/
54. Iran’s Mojtaba Khamenei demands US-Israel must face courts for child killings, hospital attacks, war crimes, https://www.livemint.com/news/world/irans-mojtaba-khamenei-demands-us-israel-must-face-courts-for-child-killings-hospital-attacks-war-crimes-11782660160360.html
55. Iran and US agree to halt attacks and renew talks – News | InDaily, Inside South Australia, https://www.indailysa.com.au/news/just-in/2026/06/29/iran-and-us-agree-to-halt-attacks-and-renew-talks
56. Trump’s Board of Peace plans to grant itself sweeping immunity, documents show, https://www.theguardian.com/law/2026/jun/27/board-of-peace-legal-immunity-un
57. The Islamabad Memorandum, https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/the-islamabad-memorandum/
58. Decision or stagnation in Gaza?, https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/06/26/decision-or-stagnation-gaza/
59. Time to be cautious rather than excited, https://www.dawn.com/news/amp/2011344