Weekly-Financial-Review-

The Supreme Court’s Gavel and the Global Relief Rally: Market Review for the Week Ending 20 February 2026

The third week of February 2026 turned out to be a real cracker for global financial markets, defined by a massive legal shake-up in Washington that sent ripples across every major trading floor from London to Sydney. While the week started off fairly quiet due to holiday closures in the United States and parts of Asia, it finished with a burst of activity that saw most major indices snap losing streaks and find some solid ground. The headline act was undoubtedly the United States Supreme Court, which handed down a decision that essentially threw the global trade rulebook out the window, at least for a few hours. This judicial intervention, combined with a cooling inflation story in Europe and some mixed economic signals in Asia, created a complex environment for investors to navigate.

Across the globe, the narrative was one of cautious optimism clashing with stubborn reality. Investors had to balance the excitement of a potential $175 billion tariff refund in the US against the sobering news of slowing American growth and intensifying geopolitical friction in the Middle East.1 In the background, the “AI revolution” continued to be a double-edged sword, driving massive spending in the West while causing a fair bit of anxiety in the Indian IT sector. By the time the closing bells rang on Friday, the world’s stock markets looked quite different from where they started, with a clear rotation away from overpriced tech and into more reliable, value-based sectors.

United States: Legal Drama and the 1.4% Growth Reality Check

The American market had a bit of a slow start this week, keeping the gates closed on Monday for a public holiday.3 However, once the traders got back to their desks, they were met with a firehose of economic data and a courtroom drama that would ultimately define the week’s performance. The major averages—the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average—all spent the middle of the week looking a bit shaky, only to be rescued by a landmark legal ruling on Friday afternoon.1

The Supreme Court Strikes Back: Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump

The single most significant event for US investors occurred on Friday, 20 February, when the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) issued its opinion in the case of Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump. In a 6-3 decision, the justices ruled that the President had overstepped his constitutional authority by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs in April 2025.1 The court’s 170-page document made it clear that while the President has broad powers to regulate imports during an emergency, the power to levy tariffs—which are essentially taxes—belongs solely to Congress.1

The market’s reaction was almost instantaneous. Stock indexes that had been trading in the red following disappointing growth data suddenly shot higher. The S&P 500 climbed 0.7% to close at 6,910.51, the Nasdaq advanced 0.9% to 22,886.07, and the Dow rose 0.5% to finish at 49,625.97.1 For the week, the S&P gained 1.1%, snapping a two-week losing streak.1 Investors were particularly buoyed by the prospect of $175 billion in potential refunds for American importers who had been footing the bill for these duties over the past year.2

However, the “relief” part of the rally was a bit of a tug-of-war. Almost as soon as the ruling was announced, President Trump hit back, calling the court’s decision a “disgrace” and immediately signing an executive order to impose a new 10% global tariff under different statutes.1 He argued that the tariffs would remain in place for at least 150 days while the Commerce Department conducted further investigations.7 This quick pivot by the White House helped ease some fears that the loss of tariff revenue would blow an even bigger hole in the US budget deficit, which in turn helped stabilise the bond market.8

Economic Data: A Shutdown Slump and Sticky Inflation

While the lawyers were arguing in Washington, the bean-counters were releasing data that showed the US economy is hitting a bit of a rough patch. Fourth-quarter GDP growth for 2025 came in at a measly 1.4% on an annualised basis, which was a massive miss compared to the 2.8% consensus forecast.5 Most analysts reckon the government shutdown late last year was the main culprit, likely shaving about 1% off the total growth figure.8

To make matters worse, inflation is proving to be a lot harder to kill than the Fed would like. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—the Fed’s favourite way to track prices—rose 0.4% in December and 3.0% year-on-year.1 This was higher than expected and suggests that interest rate cuts might still be a long way off. The manufacturing sector also looked a bit sick, with the S&P manufacturing PMI for February falling to 51.2, down from 52.4.5

US Economic Metric (Feb 2026)Actual ValueConsensus Forecast
Q4 GDP Growth (Annualised)1.4%2.8%
Core PCE Inflation (YoY)3.0%2.9%
Manufacturing PMI (Feb)51.252.4
Initial Jobless Claims206,000221,000
Trade Deficit (Dec)$70.3 Billion$58.4 Billion

The labour market remains the only real bright spot in the American story. Initial jobless claims dropped to 206,000 for the week ended 14 February, which was a fair bit better than the 221,000 expected.10 It seems that while companies are worried about growth, they aren’t exactly rushing to the exits just yet. However, the trade deficit jumped to $70.3 billion in December, a sign that the country is still importing a lot more than it’s exporting, despite the tariff wars.10

Private Credit and Geopolitical Jitters

The financial sector had its own set of headaches this week, particularly in the “shadow banking” or private credit market. Blue Owl Capital Inc. caused a bit of a stir when it sold $1.4 billion in loan assets and then moved to permanently halt redemptions in one of its retail-focused funds.10 This triggered a bit of a panic among investors who are worried about liquidity and transparency in these types of private markets. As a result, shares in alternative asset giants like Blackstone and Apollo Global Management tumbled by more than 5%.10

On the geopolitical front, the tension between the US and Iran reached a fever pitch. Disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program led President Trump to suggest that a decision on a military strike could be made within the next 10 days.10 This news pushed crude oil prices up by about 2%, adding another layer of uncertainty for a market that is already trying to figure out the future of global trade and interest rates.10

Europe: Manufacturing Rebound and the 14-Month Growth Streak

European stocks had a “ripper” of a week, largely outperforming their American cousins for most of the period. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index notched its fourth straight weekly gain, closing up 0.84% on Friday to finish at 630.56.8 This positive sentiment was driven by a combination of better-than-expected business activity data and a few “beaut” earnings reports from major continental firms.

PMIs Point to a Strong Start for 2026

The big news in Europe was the flash PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) data, which showed that the regional economy is actually picking up steam. The eurozone composite PMI rose to 51.9 in February, staying above the 50-point growth threshold for the 14th month in a row.11 Even more encouraging was the news that manufacturing output in the eurozone grew at its fastest pace since August 2025.11

In Germany—often seen as the “sick man” of Europe lately—the factory sector finally returned to expansion for the first time since June 2022.12 The German DAX 40 index took full advantage of this, gaining 0.87% on Friday and roughly 1.3% for the week.11 The rally in Frankfurt was further fueled by the US Supreme Court ruling; German carmakers like Porsche, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW all saw their shares jump because they’ll likely face fewer hurdles when shipping their high-end rides to American buyers.13

European Index Performance (Friday Close)ValueDaily Change (%)
Stoxx 600630.56+0.84%
DAX (Germany)25,260.69+0.87%
CAC 40 (France)8,515.49+1.39%
FTSE 100 (UK)10,686.89+0.56%
FTSE MIB (Italy)46,201.53+0.89%

Britain’s Economy “Turns a Corner”

The UK market also had a solid week, with the FTSE 100 closing at 10,686.89.11 While it stayed slightly below its recent record highs, the underlying data for the British economy was surprisingly strong. Retail sales in January bounced by 1.8%, the biggest monthly jump in nearly two years.11 Additionally, the UK government reported a budget surplus of £30.4 billion in January, which is the largest on record.11

Inflation in the UK is also behaving a lot better than it is in the States. Consumer price inflation (CPI) eased to 3.0% in January, a 10-month low that has traders betting on a Bank of England rate cut as soon as March.15 This helped support the mid-cap FTSE 250, though the index did see a bit of a pull-back on Thursday when oil prices hit a seven-month high due to the Iran tensions.15

Corporate Winners and the Lagarde Factor

Earnings season continued to throw up some big winners. Moncler, the luxury puffer-jacket maker, saw its shares surge over 13% after reporting a strong rise in fourth-quarter sales.11 BAE Systems, the defence giant, also had a great run, jumping 3.1% after reporting a double-digit rise in operating profits.16 The defence sector, in general, has been a massive driver for European markets as governments across the continent look to beef up their military spending.

There was also some drama at the European Central Bank (ECB). Rumours had been swirling that President Christine Lagarde might be stepping down early, but she put those to rest by telling the Wall Street Journal that she intends to serve out her full term.12 This stability at the top of the ECB helped calm the markets, even though negotiated wage growth in the eurozone accelerated in the fourth quarter, which might make the bank a bit hesitant to cut rates too quickly.11

Asia: Lunar New Year Closures and Japan’s Political Recovery

Asia was a bit of a mixed bag this week, mainly because many of the major players were off celebrating the Lunar New Year. Mainland China’s markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen were shut for the entire week and won’t reopen until Tuesday, 24 February.17 This created a “liquidity vacuum” in the region, with trading volumes significantly lower than usual.19

Japan: Takaichi’s Mandate and the Nikkei’s Record Run

While China was closed, Japan was well and truly open for business. The Japanese market has been on an absolute tear in 2026, recently hitting record highs above the 57,000 level.20 Much of this optimism stems from the landslide election victory of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, whose Liberal Democratic Party secured a massive mandate to push through her “dovish” economic agenda.20

Takaichi’s plan includes a monetary easing package exceeding $135 billion, focusing on defence spending, tax cuts, and corporate reform.20 This has been music to the ears of Japanese stock investors. However, this week saw a bit of a reality check. The Nikkei 225 closed down 1.12% on Friday as traders digested some weak GDP data.1 Japan’s economy grew at a tiny 0.2% annualised rate in the final quarter of 2025, which was way below what economists were expecting.4

Asian Market Performance (20 Feb)ValueDaily Change (%)
Nikkei 225 (Japan)56,825.70-1.12%
Hang Seng (Hong Kong)26,705.94+0.52%
Shanghai Composite4,082.07(Closed)
KOSPI (South Korea)5,696.89+0.35%
Straits Times (Singapore)5,024.57+0.46%

Inflation in Japan is also hitting a bit of a “sweet spot.” Core CPI slowed to 2.0% in January, exactly matching the central bank’s target.22 This is the first time in two years that inflation hasn’t overshot the mark, which gives the Bank of Japan a bit more breathing room as it considers when to finally start raising interest rates from their rock-bottom levels.

Hong Kong: The Proxy for China Beta

With the mainland markets closed, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index became the primary venue for anyone wanting to trade “China” news. The Hang Seng had a shortened week, operating only a half-day on Monday and then shutting down until Friday.17 When it did reopen, it managed to post a modest gain of 0.52%, supported by a rally in materials and energy stocks.4

The main narrative for China right now is the “Spring Festival” travel rush. Officials are projecting a record number of trips during the nine-day holiday period, which investors hope will translate into a big boost for domestic consumption.17 We’ll have to wait until next week to see if the “Year of the Horse” starts with a gallop when the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges finally reopen.

India: The IT Sell-Off and the Financials Rebound

The Indian market had a bit of a “nervy” week, struggling to find its feet after a heavy sell-off in the technology sector. The BSE Sensex and the Nifty 50 both spent much of the week in the red, only to staged a gutsy recovery on Friday to finish with modest gains. The Sensex ended the week at 82,814.71, up 316 points on the day, while the Nifty 50 finished at 25,571.25.24

AI Disruption Fears Weigh on IT Giants

The big headache for Dalal Street this week was the Information Technology (IT) sector. Investors are increasingly worried that the rapid adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the West will start to cannibalise the traditional software outsourcing work that Indian firms are famous for.25 This “AI involution” fear triggered a massive wave of profit booking.

On Friday, the Nifty IT index was the biggest loser, dropping nearly 1%.24 Big names like TCS and Infosys faced significant pressure, with Infosys seeing a 2% drop at one point.24 Market veterans reckon we’re seeing a structural shift, with investors rotating out of tech and into “old school” sectors like banking, autos, and capital goods where the earnings are seen as a bit more predictable.27

Indian Market Statistics (20 Feb)ValueDaily Change (%)
BSE Sensex82,814.71+0.38%
Nifty 5025,571.25+0.46%
Nifty Bank61,172.00+0.71%
Nifty IT32,004.05-0.98%
India VIX (Fear Gauge)13.29(Rising)

Foreign Capital Floods Back In

Despite the tech wobbles, the broader Indian story remains quite attractive to global investors. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) poured a massive ₹33,487 crore into Indian stocks during the first half of February, the highest fortnightly inflow in nearly a year.24 Most of this cash went into financials, capital goods, and oil and gas—the very sectors that helped the market recover on Friday.24

There were also a few “bottler” individual stock stories. Novartis India saw its shares rocket as much as 17% on news that its parent company wants to sell its stake.24 ABB India also jumped 7% after reporting record orders.24 On the flip side, Ola Electric continued its downward slide, falling 5% as investors worried about its revenue slump.27

Domestic Resilience and the “Pax Silica”

Indian retail investors are also showing a lot of grit. Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) remain at record levels, providing a steady stream of cash that helps the market bounce back from global shocks.28 There’s also a lot of buzz about India’s entry into “Pax Silica”—a new trade and security framework aimed at securing semiconductor supply chains.24 As the world looks to diversify away from China, India is positioning itself as a key hub for high-tech manufacturing, which is keeping the long-term outlook for the market quite bullish.

Oceania: The ASX Hits 9,000 and the Kiwi Confidence Surge

Down under, it was a “ripper” of a week for both the Australian and New Zealand markets. The ASX 200 finally managed to crack the 9,000-point mark, a massive milestone that has been a long time coming. Despite a tiny dip on Friday, the index finished the week up 1.8%, marking its second straight weekly advance.29

Australia: Banking Heavyweights and the Gold Rush

The rally in Sydney was largely driven by the “big four” banks. Commonwealth Bank (CBA) reached fresh record highs during the week, and National Australia Bank (NAB) posted some very solid results that were right in line with expectations.29 QBE Insurance was another standout, with its shares surging after it beat profit forecasts thanks to higher investment returns.29

However, the mining sector had a bit of a “shocking” run. Rio Tinto, the world’s biggest iron ore producer, saw its shares fall 3.1% on Friday after its annual earnings missed the mark.29 Iron ore prices have been sliding, hitting a 28-week low this week as traders worry about the sluggish demand from China’s construction sector.30

ASX 200 Top Performers (Week ending 20 Feb)Weekly Change (%)Sector
Telix Pharmaceuticals+14.2%Health Care
QBE Insurance Group+7.1%Financials
Austal Limited+5.5%Industrials
Westpac Banking+1.6%Financials

One of the biggest themes for Aussie investors this week was the surge in gold and silver prices. With the US and Iran at each other’s throats, everyone has been rushing for the exits and piling into “safe haven” assets. Gold rallied to $5,109 USD per ounce, while silver went “absolutely nuts,” jumping nearly 9% in a single week.29 This provided a huge boost to local miners like Newmont and Northern Star.

New Zealand: Business Optimism and a Steady RBNZ

Across the ditch, the NZX 50 index also had a decent week, gaining 0.8% overall.31 The big story in Aotearoa was the massive jump in business confidence. Optimism among Kiwi firms has surged to its highest level since 2022, with negative sentiment dropping 19 points in just three months.32 It seems that after a long period of feeling “battered” by high interest rates, businesses are finally starting to see some light at the end of the tunnel.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) also played its part, keeping the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25%.33 Governor Anna Breman indicated that she’s confident inflation will return to the 2% target midpoint within the next year, which has given households a bit of a “confidence lift”.31 While the job market is still a bit soft—the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.4%—the underlying details suggest that employment is starting to grow again.33

Commodities and the Global Supply Chain

The commodity markets were a bit of a “mixed bag” this week, reflecting the confusion in the broader global economy. While the precious metals were having a field day, the industrial metals—the stuff we actually use to build things—were having a much tougher time.

The Iron Ore and Coal Divide

Iron ore prices fell to their lowest level since August 2025, dipping below $100 USD per tonne.30 This is a big concern for Australia, as it reflects a clear slowdown in Chinese manufacturing and residential housing.35 On the other hand, coal prices are marching toward a fresh one-year high. China commissioned a record 78 GW of new coal-fired power capacity in 2025, proving that despite all the talk of “going green,” the world is still very much dependent on the “black gold” for energy security.36

Energy: Geopolitics vs. Supply

Crude oil prices remained “range-bound” but with a definite upward bias due to the Iran tensions. Brent crude was buoyed by reports that the US is preparing a second aircraft carrier for deployment to the Middle East.37 However, this was partly offset by a sharp rebound in US crude production and a steady recovery in Venezuelan output.37 In the natural gas market, US Henry Hub prices edged lower as storage levels remained healthy, despite a slight draw-down during the winter storms.38

CommodityPrice (20 Feb)Weekly Change (%)
Gold (USD/oz)5,109.17+2.23%
Silver (USD/oz)84.57+8.93%
Iron Ore (USD/t)99.33-0.28%
Coal (USD/t)115.00(Rising)
Brent Crude (USD/bbl)71.76+0.12%

Copper and Nickel: Waiting for the Spark

Copper prices edged slightly lower this week as elevated inventories helped cool fears of a massive deficit.38 Nickel, on the other hand, has seen some decent gains since the start of the year, up about 19%.37 These industrial metals are often seen as a barometer for the global economy, and their current “sideways” movement suggests that while we’re not in a recession, we’re certainly not in a boom either.

Second-Order Insights: What This Means for the Long Term

If we step back and look at the “big picture,” there are a few key themes that emerge from this week’s chaos.

The Breakdown of Unilateralism

The US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs is a massive signal that the era of “trade by tweet” or unilateral executive action might be coming to an end. By re-establishing that the power to tax belongs to Congress, the court has introduced a layer of “predictability” that markets love. However, President Trump’s immediate use of executive orders to reimpose a 10% levy shows that protectionism isn’t going away; it’s just getting a new legal wrapper.39 For investors, this means that trade policy uncertainty will remain a permanent feature of the landscape, but it might be a bit more managed and a bit less “random” than it was in 2025.

The Rotation from Growth to Value

We are clearly seeing a rotation in global equity markets. The “Magnificent Seven” and other US mega-cap tech stocks, which have dominated the narrative for years, are starting to look a bit tired. In their place, we’re seeing a renewed interest in “value” plays—banks, insurers, energy companies, and industrial firms that actually produce tangible goods. This is particularly evident in India, where the shift away from IT services and into financials and capital goods is a clear sign that investors are looking for “real” growth rather than just “hype”.27

Energy Security as the New Priority

The fact that coal prices are at one-year highs while iron ore is at 28-week lows tells you everything you need to know about the current state of global industry. Countries are prioritising energy security above all else. Whether it’s Japan restarting nuclear plants or China building massive new coal fleets, the goal is to ensure the lights stay on during a period of massive geopolitical tension.36 This is a “boon” for traditional energy companies but a bit of a challenge for the long-term decarbonisation story.

Conclusion

The week ending 20 February 2026 was a “bottler” for those who love market drama, but it also provided some very important signals about where the global economy is headed. The US Supreme Court’s decision to clip the President’s wings on trade was the clear “main event,” sparking a relief rally that helped most major markets end the week on a high note. However, the sobering reality of slowing US growth and persistent inflation suggests that we’re not out of the woods just yet.

Europe is looking like the “quiet achiever,” with its manufacturing sector finally waking up and inflation cooling down. Asia remains a bit of a mystery due to the Lunar New Year break, but Japan’s record run shows that there’s plenty of life in the “old” markets yet. India’s transition from a tech-led economy to a more balanced, industry-led one is a fascinating story that will likely dominate the rest of 2026. And here in Oceania, the ASX 9,000 milestone and the surge in “safe haven” metals show that our resource-rich corner of the world is still a very important part of the global puzzle.

As we head into the final week of February, all eyes will be on the reopening of the Chinese markets and the next set of inflation data from the States. If the “Year of the Horse” starts with a gallop in Shanghai, we could see this relief rally extend well into March. But for now, investors should probably take a leaf out of the RBNZ’s book: stay cautious, look at the data, and don’t get too carried away by the headlines.

Disclaimer

 This article is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or professional advice. The information contained herein represents a summary of market events and data available as of 21 February 2026. Stock market investing involves significant risks, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. No warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and the author and publisher accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the use of this report. Readers should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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