Global Stock Markets Week in Review: Tariff Turmoil Dominates Week Ending April 11, 2025

Introduction

The week ending April 11, 2025, etched itself into recent market history as a period defined by extraordinary volatility across global equity markets. This turbulence was primarily ignited and sustained by the unpredictable and rapidly escalating trade policy actions initiated by the United States, particularly concerning the trade relationship with China.¹ The constant stream of tariff announcements, retaliations, and shifting policy stances created an environment of profound uncertainty, overshadowing economic data releases and corporate earnings reports.¹

The week witnessed starkly divergent regional outcomes. Despite enduring chaotic intra-week swings, U.S. markets managed to snap losing streaks and post significant weekly gains.¹ Conversely, European and Asian indices suffered substantial losses, bearing the brunt of the escalating trade fears.² Indian markets experienced a dramatic late-week rebound following country-specific tariff relief, finishing only slightly down for the week.⁸ Oceanian markets mirrored the broader global risk-off sentiment, also closing lower.¹⁰

Several pivotal events shaped the week’s narrative. The cycle of US tariff announcements culminated in a temporary 90-day pause for many nations but notably excluded China, which faced further targeted escalations reaching a cumulative rate of 145%.¹ China responded swiftly with significant retaliatory tariff hikes of its own, up to 125% on certain US goods.¹ Amidst this growing global uncertainty, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) both implemented interest rate cuts, citing concerns over the economic outlook.⁸ Concurrently, the Q1 U.S. earnings season commenced with results from major financial institutions.¹⁶ The heightened risk aversion drove investors towards safe-haven assets, propelling gold prices to new record highs.¹

United States Market Recap: Riding the Tariff Rollercoaster

Despite experiencing some of the most volatile trading sessions in recent memory, major U.S. stock indices concluded the week ending April 11, 2025, with substantial gains, snapping two-week losing streaks. The S&P 500 surged by 5.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 5.0%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite jumped 7.3%. For the Dow and S&P 500, these represented the best weekly performances since October 2023, while the Nasdaq recorded its largest weekly increase since November 2022.¹

US Indices Weekly Performance (Week Ending April 11, 2025)

The week’s narrative, however, was overwhelmingly dictated by the whiplash effect of U.S. trade policy pronouncements. Markets initially plunged early in the week following threats of broad new tariffs.³ Sentiment reversed sharply on Wednesday after President Trump announced a 90-day suspension of certain “reciprocal” tariffs for many countries, leading to one of the best single-day rallies in years.¹ This relief proved short-lived. Subsequent clarifications revealed that China, along with Canada and Mexico (which operate under separate CUSMA-related tariff rules), were excluded from this pause.¹ Furthermore, the administration announced several increases to the cumulative tariffs specifically targeting China, reaching a potential total of 145%.¹ China promptly retaliated on Friday, announcing it was raising its tariffs on U.S. imports to 125%.¹ Compounding the confusion was a false report circulating early in the week, incorrectly suggesting a broader tariff pause, which briefly fueled a sharp, albeit temporary, market surge before being debunked.²⁴ This constant back-and-forth generated extraordinarily high volatility, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average experiencing daily swings exceeding 2,000 points between its high and low in the first four sessions of the week.¹

Amidst the tariff chaos, economic data releases provided context but had a limited immediate impact on market direction. March nonfarm payrolls showed robust job creation, with 228,000 jobs added, significantly exceeding forecasts. However, the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.2%.² While typically a positive signal, this strong jobs report did little to lift investor sentiment mid-week, as concerns over the potential economic damage from tariffs remained paramount.² Inflation data for March, released later in the week, showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising less than expected (2.4% year-over-year vs. 2.6% estimate), suggesting easing price pressures before the full impact of new tariffs could be felt.¹⁹ Friday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) data for March was also released but viewed as backward-looking.¹⁷ Business activity surveys from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) painted a mixed picture, with manufacturing slipping back into contraction and services expanding but at a slower pace. Critically, the prices-paid components within both ISM reports surged, with respondents explicitly citing tariff-related cost increases.²

The week’s trade policy actions had a profound and immediate impact on monetary policy expectations. As investors grappled with the potential negative effects of tariffs on economic growth, expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025 surged dramatically.² Markets began pricing in the likelihood that the Fed would need to ease policy more aggressively to support the labour market and counteract the drag from trade restrictions.¹⁹ Comments from Fed officials, such as Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, acknowledged that rate cuts remained possible if the economic trajectory warranted them.²⁶ This direct linkage between fiscal actions (tariffs) and monetary expectations underscored the interconnectedness of policy levers and the market’s view of the Fed’s potential role in mitigating trade war fallout.

Corporate news flow was dominated by the start of the Q1 earnings season, particularly results from major banks. JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Morgan Stanley (MS), BNY Mellon (BK), and BlackRock (BLK) all reported earnings that generally surpassed analyst expectations, providing some underlying support to the market late in the week.¹⁶ The technology sector remained a focal point of volatility, suffering significant losses during the tariff-induced sell-offs but also participating strongly in the rebounds.¹ Tech giants like Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA) experienced sharp swings throughout the week.³ Tariff specifics also created divergence, with domestically manufacturing chip companies like Texas Instruments (TXN) falling after China clarified tariff exemptions for firms using outsourced manufacturing, while Nvidia (which uses Taiwan’s TSMC) saw gains.¹ In contrast, the aerospace and defence sector outperformed significantly, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and potential shifts in U.S. defence budgets favouring domestic shipyards and production, boosting stocks like Huntington Ingalls (HII), General Dynamics (GD), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and RTX.¹ Conversely, energy stocks faced pressure as crude oil prices fell on global growth fears stoked by the trade conflict.¹⁹ Retailers and other companies heavily reliant on imports, such as Nike (NKE), Five Below (FIVE), Dollar Tree (DLTR), and Gap (GPS), were among the hardest hit by the tariff threats.²⁹ The relative strength in defence and pronounced weakness in import-heavy sectors offered early indications of potential market rotation based on direct tariff exposure and geopolitical positioning.

The market’s ability to finish the week strongly positive, despite the extreme volatility and the fundamentally negative news surrounding the escalating trade war, points towards technical factors like significant short-covering following sharp declines and potentially aggressive dip-buying.¹ However, this apparent resilience masks deep underlying uncertainty and the significant economic risks highlighted by analysts, suggesting that the market had not fully digested the potential long-term consequences of the ongoing trade conflict.²

European Market Recap: Bearing the Brunt of Trade Fears

European equity markets endured a punishing week, recording their steepest declines in years as investors reacted negatively to the escalating U.S. trade tariffs and the heightened risk of a global economic slowdown. The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index plummeted approximately 8.44% in local currency terms, its largest weekly drop in five years.² Major national indices mirrored this sharp downturn: Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 both tumbled around 8.10%, while Italy’s FTSE MIB plunged 10.56%. The UK’s FTSE 100 also lost approximately 8.10%.² For the STOXX 600, this marked its first weekly loss of 2025, ending a period of relative strength.³⁰

European Indices Weekly Performance (Week Ending April 11, 2025)

The primary driver for the sell-off in Europe was the fallout from the U.S. tariff announcements. Given the significant transatlantic trade relationship and the exposure of key European industries, particularly the automotive and luxury goods sectors, markets reacted with alarm to the prospect of higher U.S. import duties and potential retaliatory measures.² Automakers saw their shares tumble early in the week on tariff threats ²⁹, and luxury stocks, including Richemont, Burberry, LVMH, and Ferragamo, came under significant pressure as concerns mounted about the impact on U.S. consumer demand and potential price increases.³⁰ The sharp underperformance of European indices compared to their U.S. counterparts highlighted the market’s perception of Europe’s heightened vulnerability to a U.S.-led trade conflict, particularly given the continent’s reliance on exports and pre-existing signs of economic fragility.²

The escalating trade tensions introduced significant uncertainty into the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy outlook. Reports emerged suggesting that ECB policymakers were contemplating pausing their anticipated cycle of interest rate cuts due to the unpredictable economic environment created by the tariffs.² Officials, including President Christine Lagarde and Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta, publicly urged caution, emphasizing the need to assess the impact on inflation and growth.² ECB policymaker Mário Centeno explicitly expressed concern about the struggling European economy.³⁰ Underscoring these worries, the ECB revised its 2025 Eurozone GDP growth forecast downward (to 0.9% from 1.1%) while simultaneously raising its 2025 headline inflation forecast (to 2.3% from 2.1%).³⁰ This created a policy dilemma for the central bank: the tariffs posed upside risks to inflation through higher import costs but also significant downside risks to already sluggish growth. While market pricing continued to suggest expectations for further rate cuts later in the year ², the ECB’s communication signalled a more cautious, data-dependent approach ahead.³¹

Domestic economic factors added to the complex picture. In the UK, Finance Minister Rachel Reeves delivered a Spring Statement outlining billions in spending cuts against a backdrop of slowing growth and higher borrowing costs.³⁴ The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) halved its UK growth forecast for 2025 to just 1%.³⁴ While February inflation came in slightly cooler than expected, price pressures remained a concern.³⁴ Germany, Europe’s largest economy, faced its own challenges, with the government slashing its 2025 GDP growth forecast to a meagre 0.3% amid concerns of economic stagnation.³⁵ However, a new coalition agreement was reached ²², and some analysts saw an improved medium-term outlook based on planned infrastructure and defence spending, despite the near-term headwinds.³¹

On the corporate front, Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML provided a bright spot with better-than-expected Q4 results.³⁵ However, disappointing results from luxury giant LVMH ³⁵ and falling sales reported by Italy’s Ferragamo ³⁰ weighed on the sector. Mirroring the trend in the U.S., European aerospace and defence stocks saw significant gains, reflecting a market acknowledgment of a potential structural shift towards increased military spending across the continent, partly spurred by the changing geopolitical landscape highlighted by the trade tensions.³¹

Asian Market Recap: Caught in the US-China Crossfire

Asian stock markets bore the full force of the escalating US-China trade conflict during the week ending April 11, 2025, experiencing extreme volatility and ultimately closing with significant losses. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong was the hardest hit, plunging 8.47% over the week.⁷ The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.11% ³⁸, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 managed a relatively smaller decline of 0.58%.³⁹ The week was characterized by a brutal sell-off early on, particularly on Monday, April 7th, which saw the Nikkei plummet nearly 8%, the Hang Seng crash 13%, and the Shanghai Composite tumble over 7% as panic selling gripped the region.³ Markets staged a partial recovery in the latter half of the week, but failed to recoup the initial losses.⁷

Asian Indices Weekly Performance (Week Ending April 11, 2025)

The overwhelming driver of market action was the intensification of the US-China trade war. China’s exclusion from the 90-day US tariff pause ¹³, coupled with the subsequent escalation of cumulative US tariffs on Chinese goods to 145% ¹, triggered deep concerns about the potential for severe economic disruption. China’s swift retaliation, raising tariffs on US goods to 125% ¹, further fueled fears and led to widespread risk aversion across Asian markets.³ The extreme initial reactions, particularly in Hong Kong and mainland China, underscored the market’s perception of Asia as the epicentre of the trade conflict, given the region’s direct involvement and high dependence on global trade flows.³

In China, the sharp market declines early in the week prompted discussions among policymakers about potential market support measures.¹⁹ The subsequent rebound in the Shanghai and Hong Kong indices, occurring despite the confirmation of higher tariffs, suggested a combination of factors at play. China firmly announced countermeasures, signalling resolve ⁴², and reports surfaced of state-owned enterprises increasing share purchases and regulators considering calming strategies.¹⁹ The People’s Bank of China also signalled support for market stability.⁴² Additionally, cooler-than-expected March inflation data provided some relief.¹⁹ This stabilisation effort, despite the negative external environment, pointed towards a market belief, potentially bolstered by state intervention signals, in China’s capacity to utilize domestic policy levers to cushion the economic impact.⁴² These events occurred against a backdrop of lingering concerns about China’s underlying economic health, including issues in the property sector and relatively weak consumer demand post-COVID lockdowns, and a policy focus shifting towards state-owned enterprises and high-tech manufacturing (“new quality productive forces”) rather than broad-based consumer stimulus.³⁷

Japan’s Nikkei 225 also experienced a dramatic plunge early in the week, briefly dipping into bear market territory (a 20% decline from its recent high) before recovering some ground.³ The final weekly loss of -0.58% was notably less severe than the intra-week drop and significantly milder than the Hang Seng’s decline.⁷ This relative resilience on a closing basis might be attributed to several factors, including the strengthening of the Japanese Yen, which acts as a safe-haven currency during times of global stress ³, or perhaps market hopes for a more favourable outcome in trade negotiations, which Japan initiated with the US following the tariff announcements.⁶ Investor focus on potential Bank of Japan policy normalization continued in the background but was largely overshadowed by the week’s trade developments.⁴⁹

The turmoil extended across the region, with markets in South Korea ³, Australia ⁶, and New Zealand ⁶ also experiencing sharp sell-offs early in the week. Regional currencies were impacted, with the Indian Rupee hitting lows ²³ while the Japanese Yen saw significant strengthening against the US dollar.³

India Market Recap: Finding Relief in Tariff Reprieve

The Indian stock market navigated the week’s global turmoil with remarkable resilience, ultimately closing with only modest losses despite experiencing significant volatility. The BSE Sensex finished the week down 0.28% ⁹, while the NSE Nifty 50 registered a decline of 0.33% (calculated from daily data ⁵¹). This outcome masked a dramatic intra-week journey. Both indices suffered sharp losses on Monday, April 7th, mirroring the global sell-off, with the Nifty dropping 3.24% and the Sensex falling 2.95%.⁴⁰ However, a powerful rally unfolded on Friday, April 11th, propelling the Nifty up 1.92% and the Sensex up 1.77% for the day, recouping most of the earlier losses.⁸

Indian Indices Weekly Performance (Week Ending April 11, 2025)

The primary catalyst for Friday’s strong rebound was a specific development in US trade policy favourable to India. The United States announced a 90-day suspension (effective until July 9, 2025) of proposed additional reciprocal tariffs of up to 26% for India and several other nations, crucially excluding China.⁶ While a baseline 10% tariff remained in place under the broader policy, this targeted suspension provided significant relief to Indian exporters and was perceived as offering a short-term strategic advantage over regional competitors still facing harsher trade penalties.⁸ This specific exemption allowed the Indian market to partially decouple from the negative sentiment dominating other Asian markets on Friday, highlighting the direct impact of nuanced trade policy actions.⁸ The suspension also provided the Indian government with a window to intensify negotiations with the U.S. regarding a potential partial Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) aimed at improving market access.⁸

Domestic factors likely provided a supportive backdrop that amplified the positive reaction to the tariff news. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), concluding its Monetary Policy Committee meeting on April 9th, announced a 25 basis point cut in the repo rate, bringing it down to support liquidity and economic activity amidst the rising global uncertainties.⁸ The RBI also projected controlled inflation for the upcoming fiscal year, further boosting sentiment.⁸ This accommodative monetary stance, coupled with underlying optimism regarding the upcoming Q4 FY25 corporate earnings season, particularly for banking and industrial sectors, likely helped establish a floor for the market earlier in the week.⁸ This domestic support structure allowed the positive tariff news to trigger a strong rally, preventing a deeper weekly decline despite persistent headwinds from foreign investors.

Market dynamics reflected the week’s turbulence. The India VIX volatility index spiked significantly early in the week alongside the market drop but then plummeted sharply on Friday as relief set in.⁴⁰ Technical factors also contributed to Friday’s surge, with significant short-covering reported as traders closed out bearish positions following the market holiday on Thursday and the positive tariff news.⁸ However, a key headwind remained: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued their recent selling streak, marking eight consecutive sessions of net outflows as of Wednesday and bringing total selling in 2025 to $16.6 billion.⁵⁷ The persistence of these outflows, even as India received relatively favourable tariff news, suggests that broader global risk aversion and emerging market concerns might still be influencing large foreign investor decisions more than India-specific developments.⁵⁷

Friday’s rally was broad-based, with significant gains across multiple sectors. Nifty Metal was the top performer, surging over 4%, led by strong gains in Tata Steel, Hindalco Industries, and JSW Steel.⁵³ Consumer Durables, Pharma, Auto, and Energy sectors also posted strong advances.⁵³ Banking and financial stocks maintained positive momentum following the RBI rate cut.⁵⁵ Broader market indices significantly outperformed, with the Nifty Smallcap 100 and Midcap 100 indices posting strong gains, indicating widespread participation in the rally.⁸ On the corporate front, while Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) reported weaker-than-expected Q4 results, partly attributing it to client caution stemming from tariff uncertainty ²⁶, other stocks like Muthoot Finance faced pressure due to specific regulatory developments concerning gold loans.⁸

Oceania Market Recap (Australia & New Zealand): Swept Up in Global Volatility

Stock markets in Australia and New Zealand endured a week of extreme volatility, driven primarily by the global risk sentiment swings emanating from the US tariff situation. Both the S&P/ASX 200 in Australia and the S&P/NZX 50 in New Zealand finished the week ending April 11, 2025, with losses, though the weekly figures belie the dramatic daily movements. The ASX 200 fell 0.28% for the week ¹⁰, while the NZX 50 dropped 1.5%.¹¹ The week was marked by historic volatility, with the ASX 200 experiencing both its largest single-day drop and its largest single-day gain since March 2020 within the same week.⁵⁹ Similarly, the NZX 50 suffered its worst session since the COVID-19 pandemic began, only to follow it with its best session since 2020 a day later.¹¹

Oceanian Indices Weekly Performance (Week Ending April 11, 2025)

The primary driver for both markets was the overarching global risk sentiment, dictated by the unpredictable developments in the US-China trade conflict.⁵⁰ Sharp sell-offs occurred early in the week, particularly on Monday, April 7th, as markets reacted to the initial tariff threats and subsequent retaliations.⁵⁰ A significant rebound occurred mid-week, tracking the temporary relief rally in the US following the tariff pause announcement for some countries.⁵⁰ However, weakness returned later in the week as the focus shifted back to the escalating US-China tensions.¹¹ The extreme swings observed highlight the high sensitivity (or high beta) of these open, trade-dependent economies to international trade sentiment and global risk appetite.⁵⁰

Commodity price movements played a significant role, particularly for the resource-heavy Australian market, creating notable crosscurrents. Fears of a global slowdown triggered by the trade war led to sharp declines in crude oil prices, heavily pressuring energy stocks; the ASX Energy sector was the worst performer over the prior week, down over 13%.⁵⁹ Base metals like copper also weakened, impacting miners.⁶⁸ However, the flight to safety globally caused gold prices to surge to record highs, providing a significant boost to gold mining companies like Newmont, Northern Star Resources, and Evolution Mining.⁶⁹ Iron ore prices exhibited less volatility but major miners like BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue Metals still experienced significant share price swings tracking the broader market sentiment.⁶⁶ This divergence between surging gold and falling energy/base metals illustrated how different commodities reacted distinctly to the same macroeconomic shock, creating winners and losers within the broader resources sector.

Central banks in the region were clearly factoring the external shocks into their policy considerations. While the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had held rates steady earlier in April ⁷⁰, the escalating tariff situation and signs of weakening domestic consumer confidence fueled market expectations for future rate cuts.⁶⁶ In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) acted decisively during the week. On Wednesday, April 9th, the RBNZ Monetary Policy Committee cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.50%, a move that was widely anticipated by markets.¹¹ In its accompanying statement, the RBNZ explicitly cited the downside risks posed to the New Zealand economy by the deterioration in the global trade outlook and noted that there was scope to lower the OCR further if necessary as the effects of tariff policies became clearer.⁷¹ This demonstrated how directly external geopolitical events were influencing domestic monetary policy decisions in the region.

Currency markets also reflected the volatility. The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) ⁶⁴ and the New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) ¹¹ both experienced sharp initial declines against the US dollar amid the risk-off wave, hitting multi-year lows in the Kiwi’s case ⁶², before recovering some ground later in the week as the US dollar itself weakened.

Global Themes and Overarching Trends

The week ending April 11, 2025, was dominated by several interconnected global themes, primarily revolving around the disruptive force of US trade policy.

• Tariff Turmoil as the Dominant Narrative: The single most important factor driving global markets was the unpredictable and escalating nature of US tariff policy, particularly the intensifying trade conflict with China.¹ The rapid sequence of announcements, exclusions, hikes, and retaliations created a chaotic environment.¹ This active manifestation of “geo-economic fragmentation” ³⁷ underscored the shift away from established multilateral trade norms and towards a more confrontational, transactional global order.³⁷ The week starkly demonstrated how sudden, disruptive geopolitical actions can completely overwhelm traditional economic data releases and fundamental analysis in dictating short-term market direction.²
• Unprecedented Volatility and Fear: The tariff uncertainty unleashed historic levels of volatility across asset classes. Major stock indices saw daily swings comparable to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic or the Global Financial Crisis.¹ Market volatility gauges, such as the VIX in the US, the A-VIX in Australia, and the VHSI in Hong Kong, surged to multi-year highs, reflecting deep investor fear and uncertainty about the potential for the trade war to trigger a global recession.² Beyond the direct economic cost of the tariffs themselves, the sheer uncertainty generated was seen as a major economic drag, potentially freezing corporate investment and hiring decisions – a factor explicitly acknowledged by central banks and analysts.⁴
• Central Bank Policy Response: Global central banks reacted swiftly to the shifting landscape. Market expectations for Federal Reserve easing in 2025 increased dramatically as participants priced in the need for monetary support to offset the negative growth impact of tariffs.² The European Central Bank signalled increased caution, potentially pausing its rate cut cycle due to the conflicting pressures of tariff-induced inflation risks and slowing growth.² Meanwhile, central banks in India (RBI) and New Zealand (RBNZ) implemented rate cuts, explicitly citing the heightened global uncertainty and trade risks as contributing factors.⁸ This highlighted a broader potential shift in central bank focus, moving from a primary concern with post-pandemic inflation towards managing the growth risks emanating from disruptive trade policies.⁸⁰
• Flight to Safety Dynamics: The heightened risk aversion triggered a significant flight to traditional safe-haven assets. Gold prices surged to new all-time highs as investors sought refuge from market turmoil and potential currency debasement.¹ Safe-haven currencies like the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc appreciated notably against the US dollar.³ U.S. Treasury yields experienced extreme volatility, initially plunging on recession fears before partially reversing, reflecting the complex interplay of growth concerns, inflation expectations, and potential safe-haven demand disruptions.³
• Sectoral Impacts and Potential Shifts: The tariff conflict had clear and immediate impacts on specific sectors. Globally integrated industries such as automotive, technology (particularly those with complex cross-border supply chains), luxury goods, and general importers faced significant pressure.²⁹ Conversely, sectors perceived as beneficiaries of geopolitical tension or domestic policy shifts, like defence stocks, or those considered defensive, such as consumer staples and gold miners, showed resilience or outright gains.¹ The events also fueled speculation about longer-term shifts in global supply chains away from China, potentially benefiting companies and regions like India’s electronics manufacturing services (EMS) sector.²⁴ More broadly, the uncertainty raised concerns about the disruption to corporate investment planning globally.⁴ The week’s events served as a stark illustration of the real-world risks associated with geo-economic fragmentation, potentially leading to less efficient global supply chains and sustained higher costs in the long run.⁷⁵

Conclusion

The week ending April 11, 2025, will be remembered for the sheer chaos and volatility injected into global financial markets by the unpredictable and escalating US tariff policies, particularly the trade conflict with China. While US markets managed a remarkable weekly rebound, likely fueled by technical factors and shifting Fed expectations, markets in Europe and Asia suffered significant losses, reflecting heightened vulnerability to trade disruptions. India benefited from a specific tariff reprieve, leading to a late-week surge, while Oceania markets were buffeted by the waves of global risk sentiment and commodity price swings.

Prevailing market sentiment remains highly cautious and uncertain. The unresolved US-China trade dispute stands as the dominant concern, casting a long shadow over the global growth outlook. While some central banks, like the RBI and RBNZ, have moved to provide monetary support in response to the heightened risks, the path forward for major central banks like the Fed and ECB remains clouded by the conflicting pressures of potential tariff-induced inflation and trade-related growth headwinds.

Looking ahead, market participants will remain intensely focused on any further developments in trade policy, particularly communications between the US and China. Incoming economic data will be scrutinised for early signs of damage from the tariffs, while the ongoing Q1 corporate earnings season will provide crucial company-level insights into how businesses are navigating the turbulent environment. Volatility is likely to remain elevated until greater clarity emerges on the trajectory of global trade relations and their ultimate economic impact.

Disclaimer

This report is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. The information contained herein is based on publicly available sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Market conditions are subject to change without notice.

Investing in financial markets involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. The views expressed in this report are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This report does not take into account any specific reader’s investment objectives or financial situation. The author and publisher disclaim any liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage arising from the use of this report or its contents.

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