Global Stock Market Review: Week Ending May 2, 2025

Global stock markets experienced a significant surge during the week ending May 2, 2025, largely shaking off the deep concerns that dominated trading in April. A wave of optimism swept across major financial centres, driven primarily by unexpectedly positive economic news from the United States and renewed hopes for a de-escalation in the ongoing trade conflict between the US and China. This rally saw several benchmark indices reclaim substantial ground lost earlier in the year. However, this buoyant sentiment unfolded against a backdrop of mixed underlying economic signals and persistent anxieties regarding the broader impact of international trade policies. This report provides a detailed overview of market performance and key developments across the United States, Europe, Asia (with a specific focus on India), and Oceania during this eventful week.

United States Market Review: Rally Gains Momentum

A. Performance Overview: A Historic Winning Streak

US stock markets delivered a powerful performance, extending their gains for a second consecutive week and marking a significant rebound from the tariff-induced sell-off seen in early April.¹ The rally was broad and sustained, culminating in a notable achievement for the S&P 500 index, which recorded its longest winning streak since 2004, closing higher for nine straight trading days by Friday.¹ This impressive run allowed the benchmark index to fully recover the losses incurred since President Trump announced a major escalation in trade tariffs at the beginning of April.¹

The weekly gains across major indices were substantial:

• The S&P 500 climbed approximately 2.9%.²
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average added roughly 3.0%.²
• The Nasdaq Composite surged by about 3.4%.²
• The Russell 2000 index, representing smaller companies, also participated strongly, rising 3.2%.²

Table 1: US Major Indices Performance (Week Ending May 2, 2025)

Source: Derived from data in ¹

Despite this strong two-week rebound, where the S&P 500 gained approximately 8% to 10% ⁴, it is crucial to note that all major US indices remained in negative territory for the year 2025.¹ The S&P 500 was still down 3.3% year-to-date, the Dow down 2.9%, the Nasdaq down 6.9%, and the Russell 2000 lagging significantly with a 9.4% loss.² This context underscores the severity of the market downturn earlier in the year, primarily attributed to the economic uncertainty created by the administration’s trade policies.¹

B. Key Driver: Strong US Jobs Report

The most significant catalyst propelling the market higher, particularly on Friday, was the release of the April US employment situation report.¹ The report painted a picture of a resilient labour market, defying some expectations of a more pronounced slowdown due to trade headwinds.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 177,000 jobs in April, comfortably exceeding the consensus forecasts which clustered around 130,000 to 140,000.³ While the March figure was revised downwards (from 228,000 to 185,000), the April number was still considered healthy, roughly in line with the average monthly gain over the prior year.⁹ The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, matching expectations and remaining near multi-decade lows.³

Furthermore, wage growth remained moderate. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month-over-month, the smallest gain since August 2023, and 3.8% year-over-year.⁹ This moderation was potentially seen as a positive sign for inflation prospects.

The market interpreted this data set favorably, viewing it as strong enough to dispel immediate fears of a sharp economic downturn triggered by trade disputes, yet perhaps not so robust as to compel the Federal Reserve to abandon its potential path toward interest rate cuts later in the year.¹ The continued strength in employment, considered a cornerstone of the US economy, provided a significant boost to investor confidence.⁶

C. Key Driver: US-China Trade Sentiment Improves

A palpable shift in sentiment regarding the US-China trade conflict provided substantial fuel for the week’s rally.¹ Hopes resurfaced that a path towards de-escalation might be opening, reducing the perceived risk of further economic damage from high tariffs.

Reports indicated that China’s Commerce Ministry was actively evaluating overtures from the United States concerning the steep tariffs imposed, signalling a potential willingness to engage in discussions.¹ This development followed earlier indications and market hopes that the Trump administration might be seeking avenues to soften its stance, possibly negotiating trade deals that could lead to a rollback of some levies.¹

The market’s sensitivity to trade-related news was evident throughout the week. Even tentative signs of potential dialogue or a less confrontational approach were sufficient to trigger relief buying.¹ This reaction reflects the significant economic drag attributed to the existing tariffs, such as the reported 145% rate on certain Chinese goods ¹, and the considerable uncertainty they inject into corporate planning and investment decisions.⁷ The rally suggested investors were beginning to price in a less damaging outcome than the worst-case scenarios feared in early April.

D. Key Driver: Q1 Earnings Season – Generally Resilient

The ongoing first-quarter 2025 corporate earnings season added another layer of support to the market’s positive momentum.¹ With approximately 70-72% of S&P 500 companies having reported by the end of the week ⁶, the results were generally better than analysts had anticipated.

Key earnings season statistics included:

• Earnings Beats: Around 76% of reporting companies surpassed consensus earnings per share (EPS) estimates. This rate was above the 10-year average of 75%, although slightly below the more recent 5-year average of 77%.⁶
• Magnitude of Beats: Companies, in aggregate, reported earnings that were 8.6% above estimates, exceeding the 10-year average beat magnitude of 6.9%.¹⁹
• Overall Growth: The blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 in Q1 was tracking at a strong 12.8%. If realised, this would mark the second consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index.¹⁹
• Revenue Growth: Revenue trends were also positive, with a blended growth rate of 4.8%, potentially the 18th straight quarter of revenue expansion. However, revenue beat rates (62% of companies exceeding estimates) and the magnitude of beats (0.9% above estimates) were below their 5-year and 10-year averages.¹⁹

Sector performance and individual company reports provided a more nuanced picture:

• Technology: This sector was a significant contributor to the rally. Strong results and optimistic outlooks, particularly regarding artificial intelligence (AI) investments, from giants like Microsoft and Meta Platforms earlier in the week boosted sentiment.³ These stocks, along with Nvidia, continued to perform well on Friday.¹
• Apple and Amazon Concerns: Despite the tech enthusiasm, Apple shares declined notably (-3.7% Friday) after the company projected a $900 million hit from tariffs and reported disappointing revenue from China.¹ Amazon also faced pressure, citing “substantial uncertainty” in its forward guidance due to factors including tariffs.⁸
• Financials: Banks and financial services companies generally posted solid gains. JPMorgan Chase and Visa advanced ¹, while asset manager Franklin Resources rose after reporting strong inflows into its exchange-traded fund (ETF) business.³
• Travel Sector Boost: The strong jobs report eased concerns about a potential economic downturn driven by trade tensions, leading to a surge in travel-related stocks on Friday. United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings all saw significant gains.³
• Energy Sector Struggles: Oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron reported their weakest first-quarter profits in years, primarily due to the significant decline in crude oil prices. Their stocks saw relatively modest movements despite the disappointing results.¹
• Notable Decliners: Several companies faced sharp sell-offs despite the overall market strength. Block (formerly Square) plummeted over 20% on Friday after reporting a sharp drop in profit and weak guidance, citing a pullback in consumer discretionary spending.¹ GoDaddy fell despite beating estimates, as analysts raised valuation concerns.³ Motorola Solutions sank after providing muted guidance and highlighting potential tariff cost pressures.³ Video game maker Take-Two Interactive declined after delaying the highly anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto VI.³ Chipmaker Qualcomm had tumbled earlier in the week following disappointing guidance.¹⁶

The earnings season, while broadly supportive, clearly illustrated the tangible effects of trade policy on corporate outlooks (Apple, Amazon, Motorola) and pointed to potential areas of economic softness (Block, Airbnb ⁸). Nevertheless, the market appeared to focus on the aggregate positive earnings surprises, especially from influential mega-cap technology firms.

E. Economic Data & Fed Outlook: Mixed Signals

Beyond the headline jobs number, other economic data released during the week presented a more complex and, in some cases, concerning picture of the US economy.

• GDP Contraction: The first estimate of Q1 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revealed a contraction of 0.3% on an annualised basis. This marked the first quarterly decline in three years and was worse than consensus expectations.⁹ The decrease was primarily attributed to a surge in imports – potentially as businesses front-loaded orders ahead of anticipated tariff impacts – and a decline in government spending.⁹
• Weakening Confidence: Consumer confidence continued its decline, falling for a fifth consecutive month in April to reach its lowest level since October 2011. The forward-looking expectations component of the survey dropped to a level often associated with recession risk.⁹
• Labour Market Nuances: While the April payrolls report was strong, other labour market indicators hinted at potential cooling. Job openings eased for a second straight month in March ⁹, and weekly initial jobless claims surged more than expected, reaching a two-month high.¹² The ADP private payroll report also showed a significant slowdown.¹²
• Manufacturing and Construction: Manufacturing indicators, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI and regional Fed surveys, continued to show signs of stress or contraction, often linked to trade uncertainty and input cost pressures.⁹ Construction spending also registered a decline in March.⁹

Regarding the Federal Reserve, despite the robust April jobs report, market expectations generally held firm for potential interest rate cuts later in the year. Hopes for trade de-escalation combined with the mixed economic signals (GDP contraction, falling confidence) supported the view that the Fed might still deliver two to three rate cuts in 2025.¹ Market pricing implied expectations for roughly three 25-basis-point cuts by the end of the year.⁶ Concerns about Fed independence, briefly stoked mid-week by presidential criticism, seemed to dissipate after President Trump stated he had no intention of firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell.⁶

In other markets, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose during the week, closing around 4.31%-4.32%.¹ This increase reflected the strong jobs data, which tempered expectations for immediate rate cuts. Crude oil prices continued their downward trend, falling below $60 per barrel during the week, a level challenging profitability for many producers and contributing to the weak earnings in the energy sector.¹ Bitcoin, meanwhile, traded strongly, reaching its highest levels in over two months.³

F. US Market Context and Considerations

The week’s powerful stock market rally, highlighted by the S&P 500’s historic winning streak, stood in contrast to some concurrent economic data points, such as the Q1 GDP contraction and declining consumer confidence.¹ This suggests the market’s advance was heavily influenced by sentiment shifts – specifically, relief regarding the jobs report and renewed hopes for a trade war de-escalation – rather than a reflection of broad-based, confirmed economic acceleration. This reliance on hope and sentiment could make the rally susceptible to setbacks if trade negotiations falter or if further economic data points towards a more significant slowdown.

The market’s pronounced reactions to any news regarding tariffs and US-China relations underscored that trade policy remains the dominant narrative shaping investor sentiment and corporate strategy.¹ The recovery explicitly erased losses linked to the April tariff escalation, and company earnings calls frequently referenced the impact of tariffs on costs and outlooks.¹ Economic indicators like import surges and manufacturing surveys also reflected the policy’s effects.⁹ This demonstrates that trade policy is not merely background noise but an active variable influencing economic activity and risk perception.

While the overall market trend was strongly positive, performance beneath the surface showed selectivity. Significant stock price declines following disappointing earnings reports or specific negative news (such as Block’s plunge or Apple’s tariff warning) indicated that investors remained focused on company-specific fundamentals even amid the broader rally.¹ This suggests that while positive macro sentiment provided a lift, company-specific performance and outlooks were still critical determinants of individual stock movements.

European Market Review: Riding the Global Wave

A. Performance Overview

European stock markets participated enthusiastically in the global rally, closing the week on a strong note, largely driven by positive cues from the United States.¹¹ Major indices across the continent posted significant gains on Friday.

• The FTSE 100 index in the UK finished Friday up 1.2%.¹¹
• The CAC 40 in Paris jumped 2.3% on Friday.¹¹
• The DAX 40 in Frankfurt surged 2.6% on Friday.¹¹

For the week, the FTSE 100 index added a solid 2.2%.¹¹ While specific weekly figures for the DAX and CAC were not detailed in the available materials, their strong performance on Friday strongly suggests they also concluded the week with positive gains.

Table 2: European Major Indices Performance (Week Ending May 2, 2025)

Source: Derived from data in.¹¹ 

B. Key Drivers

The primary impetus for European market strength came from across the Atlantic. Markets in London, Paris, and Frankfurt reacted positively to the better-than-expected US jobs report and the burgeoning optimism surrounding potential US-China trade talks.¹¹ The general improvement in global risk appetite provided a favourable environment for equities worldwide.

From a regional perspective, the Eurozone economy showed signs of relative resilience. The initial estimate for Q1 2025 GDP indicated annualised growth of 1.6%, surpassing expectations and notably contrasting with the contraction reported in the US for the same period.²⁴ This could suggest that Europe’s economy, while facing headwinds like a struggling manufacturing sector and high uncertainty ³⁰, might be weathering the current global challenges better than initially feared, or at least exceeding dampened expectations. Services remain a source of strength, supported by rising incomes.³⁰

Eurozone inflation provided little cause for immediate alarm. The flash estimate for April showed the annual inflation rate holding steady at 2.2%, the same as March, slightly above the 2.1% consensus but indicating contained price pressures.²⁹ Core inflation eased slightly to 2.7%.³² European Central Bank staff projections anticipate further moderation in inflation going forward.³⁰

In the UK, the FTSE 100 saw broad-based gains on Friday.¹¹ Earlier in the week, commentary from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey hinted at a possible interest rate cut at the upcoming May meeting, partly influenced by the potential economic impact of global trade tensions.³³ While this initially pressured banking stocks ³³, the prospect of looser monetary policy likely provided broader market support later in the week. Energy giant Shell PLC saw its shares rise after announcing an increased dividend and a new $3.5 billion share buyback program, despite reporting lower year-over-year earnings for the first quarter.¹¹ Mining and resource stocks benefited from the improved trade outlook.¹¹ However, some UK companies, like automotive distributor Inchcape and distribution group Bunzl, explicitly noted potential negative consequences stemming from US tariff policies.³³

Contextually, Germany’s previously announced significant shift towards increased defence and infrastructure spending represents a potentially important future catalyst for the German economy, particularly its manufacturing sector, though its impact is longer-term.³¹

C. European Market Context and Considerations

European markets clearly benefited from the positive spillover effects of improved global sentiment originating from the US jobs data and trade hopes.¹¹ However, the better-than-expected Eurozone GDP reading ²⁴ hints at a degree of independent economic resilience, or perhaps simply the surpassing of low expectations. This, combined with relatively more attractive valuations compared to the US ³¹ and potentially a less volatile political landscape ²⁸, could position European equities for relative strength, even as they remain correlated with global trends. Policy shifts, such as Germany’s increased spending plans ³¹, might also offer region-specific support over time.

Despite benefiting from hopes of US-China trade de-escalation, European economies and companies remain exposed to the risks associated with global protectionism. Warnings from companies like Inchcape about tariff impacts ³³, alongside the Bank of England explicitly citing trade tensions as a factor in monetary policy considerations ³³, demonstrate this vulnerability. Broader policy uncertainty continues to weigh on investment and export prospects within the Eurozone.³⁰ This highlights that trade conflicts are not isolated issues but have tangible consequences for European corporate performance and economic stability.

Asian Market Review: Trade Hopes Lift Region (Ex-China)

A. Performance Overview

Stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region generally advanced during the week, taking cues from the strong performance on Wall Street and reacting positively to indications of potential progress in US-China trade relations.¹⁴

A significant factor influencing regional dynamics was the closure of mainland Chinese markets (Shanghai and Shenzhen) for the entire week due to the Labour Day holiday.¹⁴ This absence removed a major source of regional trading activity and direct influence.

• Hong Kong: The Hang Seng Index stood out as a strong performer. It gained 1.74% on Friday and finished the week with a solid 2.38% advance.¹⁴ This marked the index’s third consecutive week of gains, pushing it to its highest closing level since early April 2025.³⁵ The tech-focused Hang Seng Tech Index was particularly buoyant, surging 3.45% on Friday alone.¹⁴
• Japan: The Nikkei 225 index rose 0.87% on Friday, while the broader Topix index gained 0.3%.¹⁴ Weekly performance data for this specific week was not explicitly available, but the index had experienced declines in preceding weeks.²⁵
• South Korea: The Kospi index edged up 0.19% on Friday, and the tech-heavy Kosdaq index climbed 0.76%.¹⁴

Table 3: Asian Major Indices Performance (Week Ending May 2, 2025)

Source: Derived from data in.¹⁴ Weekly changes for Nikkei/Kospi not specified.

B. Key Drivers

The predominant influence on Asian markets (excluding mainland China) was the positive shift in sentiment surrounding potential US-China trade negotiations.¹⁴ Markets highly sensitive to this relationship, such as Hong Kong, reacted strongly to the news that China was evaluating US overtures.¹

The rally on Wall Street, particularly in the technology sector fueled by strong earnings from Microsoft and Meta Platforms, also provided a positive backdrop.¹⁴ This lifted sentiment for technology stocks across Asia, benefiting indices like the Hang Seng Tech and the Kosdaq.¹⁴

The absence of trading in mainland China due to the holiday likely had several effects.¹⁴ It may have concentrated trading activity and investor focus on other open regional markets, particularly Hong Kong. It also meant there were no new economic data releases or policy signals emerging directly from mainland China during the week to influence regional sentiment. Other background factors include currency movements, such as the Yen’s impact on Japanese exporters (though specific data for this week is limited ²⁵), and broader trends in emerging markets ³⁹ and commodity prices.³⁴

C. India Market Focus: Resilience Amid Volatility

The Indian stock market navigated a volatile week but ultimately extended its winning streak for the third consecutive week.⁴¹ While benchmarks reached new highs intraday on Friday, significant profit-taking emerged at higher levels, causing indices to pare gains considerably by the close.⁴²

• Performance:

• The Nifty 50 index closed Friday around 24,346, up a marginal 0.05% on the day after retreating sharply from its intraday peak near 24,589.⁴² For the week, the Nifty 50 gained approximately 1.28%.⁴²
• The BSE Sensex finished Friday around 80,517, posting a gain of 0.34% for the day, also well off its intraday high above 81,177.⁴² The Sensex gained about 1.64% over the week.⁴²
• Broader market segments, such as the Nifty Midcap 100 index, underperformed on Friday, indicating some risk aversion.⁴¹
• Key Drivers:

• Foreign Investor Flows: A critical factor underpinning the market’s resilience was the continued net buying by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) or Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs).⁴⁴ This extended a trend of positive inflows seen over the prior weeks, driven by factors such as relatively attractive valuations following earlier market corrections, a weakening US dollar, and India’s comparatively robust economic growth outlook.⁴³ FIIs were net buyers leading into the week, though the pace appeared moderate on the last trading day before Friday.⁴⁷
• Q4 Earnings Season: The ongoing corporate earnings season for the quarter ended March 2025 remained a key focus, driving stock-specific movements.⁴⁴ Positive results were reported by companies like Indian Overseas Bank and UltraTech Cement.⁴⁴ Investors keenly awaited results from major banks like State Bank of India (SBI) and Kotak Mahindra Bank, expected over the weekend.⁴⁷ While the overall Q4 earnings season was perceived by some analysts as potentially muted, expectations were for an improvement starting in fiscal year 2026.⁴⁶ Market reactions to results from companies like Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, Zomato, and Federal Bank were also influential.⁴⁷
• Geopolitical Concerns: Heightened tensions between India and Pakistan following a recent terrorist attack in Pahalgam were cited as a significant risk factor.⁴⁵ This likely contributed to the profit-taking observed at higher market levels and may have capped overall gains.
• Global Cues: The positive sentiment generated by the US jobs report and trade hopes provided an initial boost to the Indian market early on Friday.⁴⁵
• Domestic Data & Valuations: April’s Manufacturing PMI data was anticipated on Friday.⁴⁷ Earlier data indicated a slowdown in bank credit growth.⁴⁴ Analysts continued to express caution regarding elevated market valuations, with the Nifty 50 trading above 20 times estimated forward earnings.⁴⁵
• Sectoral Movements: The Oil & Gas sector was a notable gainer for the week, significantly boosted by strong performance in Reliance Industries shares.⁴¹ Conversely, metal stocks faced pressure.⁴¹ Automobile stocks were also in focus as companies released their April sales figures.⁴⁷

D. Asia/India Market Context and Considerations

The closure of mainland China’s markets throughout the week amplified the influence of external factors on other Asian trading hubs.¹⁴ Markets like Hong Kong, which are closely watched for signals on broader China sentiment, became particularly sensitive to global news flow, especially developments in the US-China trade narrative.¹⁵ This highlights the interconnectedness of regional markets and the significant role mainland China typically plays in setting the tone.

India’s market performance has been heavily reliant on the recent resurgence of FII/FPI inflows.⁴³ While this has provided crucial support and driven the multi-week rally, it also introduces a degree of vulnerability. Should global risk appetite sour, the US dollar strengthen significantly, or India’s relative growth advantage diminish, a reversal of these foreign flows could pressure the market, particularly given current valuation levels.⁴⁵

Despite achieving a third consecutive week of gains, the sharp pullback from intraday highs witnessed in Indian markets on Friday signals underlying caution among investors.⁴² This reluctance to hold peak levels suggests nervousness about sustaining the rally, potentially stemming from concerns over high valuations, geopolitical risks, or simply a prudent desire to lock in profits near record highs.⁴² It points towards a consolidation phase or potential resistance at current levels.

Oceania Market Review: Australia Leads with Strongest Week in Recent Memory

A. Performance Overview

Stock markets in Australia and New Zealand delivered strong performances, swept up in the positive global sentiment shift driven by US economic news and trade optimism.

• Australia: The S&P/ASX 200 index had a particularly strong week. It gained 1.13% on Friday, closing at 8,238, which marked its seventh consecutive day of gains and its highest level in two months.³⁸ For the week, the benchmark index surged an impressive 3.26%, representing its best weekly performance since December 2023.³⁸ Analysts described the market as being in “beast mode”.³⁸
• New Zealand: The S&P/NZX 50 index also finished the week strongly, climbing 1.48% (reported as 1.5% in ⁵¹) on Friday to close at 12,327.89.³⁸ This performance contributed to the index logging its best week in over five months.⁵³

Table 4: Oceania Major Indices Performance (Week Ending May 2, 2025)

Source: Derived from data in.³⁸ NZX 50 weekly % change not specified.

B. Key Drivers

The overwhelming driver for the strong gains, particularly in the Australian market, was the significant improvement in sentiment regarding US-China trade relations.³⁸ As China is Australia’s largest trading partner, the local market is highly sensitive to perceived shifts in this crucial relationship.⁵¹ The possibility of trade talks and tariff de-escalation provided a major boost to risk appetite.

Both Australian and New Zealand markets benefited from the broader global “risk-on” mood that followed the positive US jobs report and the aforementioned trade optimism.⁵¹

In Australia, the gains on Friday were broad-based, with 10 out of 11 sectors advancing.³⁸ Energy stocks led the charge (+2%), supported by rising oil prices after the US threatened sanctions related to Iranian oil purchases.³⁸ Banking stocks (+1.3%) and mining stocks (+0.9%) also performed well, benefiting from the improved global economic outlook and easing trade fears.⁵¹ Technology stocks followed their US counterparts higher.⁵² Gold stocks, however, had faced pressure earlier in the week as the easing trade tensions reduced demand for safe-haven assets.⁵²

Domestic factors in Australia also played a supporting role. Increased market expectations for an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), following softer economic data released in previous weeks, likely contributed to positive sentiment.⁵¹ The upcoming federal election, scheduled for May 3rd, introduces political uncertainty, although markets often react positively once results provide clarity.²⁴ Investors are also looking ahead to half-year earnings reports from several major Australian banks next week.⁵¹

In New Zealand, upcoming points of focus include Q1 labour market statistics and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Financial Stability Report.⁵⁵ Recent domestic data showed rising inflation and a decline in business confidence.⁵³ The government has signalled intentions for a fiscally tight budget ⁵⁵ and recently announced an increase in passport fees due to rising operational costs.⁵⁶

C. Oceania Market Context and Considerations

The Australian S&P/ASX 200’s exceptionally strong weekly performance serves as a clear indicator of its high sensitivity to global trade dynamics, especially those involving China.³⁸ Positive developments or even hopeful signals regarding US-China trade relations can trigger substantial gains in the Australian market, given the close economic ties. Key sectors like mining and banking are particularly leveraged to this sentiment.⁵¹

While domestic factors such as RBA policy expectations and the federal election cycle are relevant ²⁴, the week’s market action was overwhelmingly dominated by the external shift in global trade sentiment. Domestic news appeared to take a backseat in driving the overall direction and magnitude of the rally during this specific period.⁵¹ This illustrates how, in smaller, open economies like Australia and New Zealand, significant global developments can temporarily overshadow local economic or political events in dictating market trends.

Conclusion

The week ending May 2, 2025, witnessed a powerful relief rally across global stock markets, interrupting the negative trajectory established in April. The primary catalysts were twofold: a stronger-than-anticipated US jobs report that eased immediate recession fears, and a significant improvement in sentiment regarding potential US-China trade de-escalation. This optimism propelled the US S&P 500 to a historic nine-day winning streak, erasing its April losses.¹ European and Oceania markets, particularly Australia, participated strongly in the rally, reflecting improved global risk appetite.¹¹ India’s market also extended its gains for a third week, buoyed by continued foreign investor inflows.⁴¹

However, this wave of positive market performance occurred amidst lingering concerns and mixed underlying data. The US economy contracted in the first quarter, consumer confidence continued to erode, and manufacturing sectors showed strain.⁹ Furthermore, despite the week’s gains, major US indices remained down year-to-date, highlighting the depth of the earlier downturn.¹ While hopes for trade talks have risen, significant uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and their ultimate economic impact persists.⁶

Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor for tangible progress in US-China trade discussions, the outcomes of upcoming central bank meetings (including the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England ²⁷), and the continuing flow of corporate earnings reports, notably from major Australian banks.⁵¹ Key economic data releases ⁵⁵ and the results of the Australian federal election ²⁴ will also shape market direction in the near term. The sustainability of the recent rally likely hinges on whether the optimism surrounding trade and economic resilience translates into concrete positive developments.

Disclaimer

This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. The information presented herein is based on publicly available data and sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Stock market conditions are inherently volatile, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Investing in financial markets involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.

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