Global Stock Market Review: Week Ending March 28, 2025

The week ending March 28, 2025, presented a largely challenging landscape for global stock markets. A confluence of factors, most notably escalating concerns over inflation and the potential destabilising effects of newly announced trade tariffs by the United States, contributed to a prevailing negative trend across major indices. Fears of a slowdown in global economic growth, exacerbated by an ongoing trade war, further dampened investor sentiment. While the overarching theme was one of caution and decline, certain regional markets demonstrated pockets of resilience, hinting at underlying strengths or unique local factors at play.

The primary drivers influencing market performance during this period included stronger-than-anticipated inflation data emanating from the US, coupled with President Trump’s announcement of significant tariffs on all imported automobiles and auto parts. This action, accompanied by indications of further reciprocal tariffs to come, ignited fears of an intensified global trade conflict. Mixed economic data releases across various regions, encompassing GDP growth, retail sales figures, and measures of consumer sentiment, added to the complexity of the market environment.

The following table offers a comparative overview of the weekly performance of key stock market indices across the regions under review:

Note: Weekly change for Hang Seng Index and Shanghai Composite is calculated based on the closing value on March 21st and the closing value on March 28th.

United States Market Performance

The US stock market experienced a significant downturn during the week ending March 28, 2025, with all major indices registering losses. The S&P 500 concluded the week at 5,580.94, a decrease of 1.5% ¹. This decline was particularly pronounced on Friday, with the index falling by 2%, marking one of its most substantial single-day drops in the past two years ¹. This marked the fifth losing week for the S&P 500 in the last six ⁴. Similarly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 1% over the week, closing at 41,583.90, after a 1.7% loss on Friday ¹. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite fared even worse, tumbling 2.6% for the week to close at 17,322.99, including a 2.7% drop on the final trading day ¹. The Russell 2000 index, representing smaller companies, also saw a decline of 1.6% for the week ¹.

Several interconnected factors contributed to this negative market performance. A primary concern was the building anxiety surrounding worsening inflation and a potential slowdown in the US economy, attributed in part to a global trade war that has made households hesitant to spend ¹. Adding to these worries was the heightened uncertainty stemming from tariffs. President Trump’s announcement of levies on all imported cars and auto parts, coupled with his indication of further tariffs to be imposed the following week, significantly rattled investor confidence ⁴. The market’s reaction to these tariff announcements suggests a clear apprehension regarding their potential to disrupt supply chains, increase costs for businesses and consumers, and trigger retaliatory measures from other nations, ultimately hindering economic growth. The fear of these reciprocal tariffs and their detrimental impact on corporate earnings appeared to be a major catalyst for the market downturn.

Furthermore, poorly received consumer sentiment data added to the prevailing pessimism ⁴. The University of Michigan’s final reading on consumer sentiment for March 2025 revealed the highest long-term inflation expectations since 1993 ¹⁶. This growing pessimism among consumers about the future of the economy can have significant repercussions. If individuals anticipate substantial price increases over the long term, they are likely to become more cautious with their spending in the present. This reduction in consumer spending can lead to decreased demand for goods and services, potentially resulting in lower revenues and profits for companies, thereby making their stocks less appealing to investors. The combination of these elevated inflation expectations and the consequent cautious consumer behaviour paints a concerning picture for overall economic health and corporate profitability.

Inflationary pressures were further underscored by the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. The core PCE, which excludes the volatile food and energy sectors and is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose by 2.8% in February, exceeding economists’ forecasts of 2.7% ⁴. This development is particularly noteworthy for the Federal Reserve as it indicates that underlying inflationary pressures within the economy are more robust than previously anticipated. Such persistent inflation could constrain the Fed’s ability to implement interest rate cuts in the near future, a factor that often weighs negatively on stock valuations as it increases borrowing costs for companies and can dampen economic activity. While the Federal Reserve’s meeting in mid-March, where interest rates were kept steady at 4.5% and projections indicated slower economic growth coupled with higher inflation by the year’s end (partially attributed to the anticipated effects of tariffs), fell outside the immediate timeframe of this week’s performance, its lingering effects likely continued to contribute to the cautious investor sentiment ²⁰. The Fed’s revised outlook, acknowledging the potential adverse impacts of the ongoing trade war on both growth and inflation, served to reinforce investor anxieties regarding the future profitability and overall prospects of US companies.

At the company level, several notable developments influenced individual stock and sector performance. Lululemon Athletica (LULU) experienced a significant drop of 14.2% in its share price after issuing a warning about potentially slowing revenue growth. The athletic apparel retailer attributed this cautious outlook to a decrease in consumer spending, driven by heightened concerns about inflation and the overall economic climate ¹. This disappointing guidance from a company that had previously demonstrated resilience suggests that the prevailing economic headwinds are beginning to impact even previously strong performers in the consumer discretionary sector, indicating a potentially broader slowdown in consumer spending across the board. Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) also saw its shares decline by 5.8% following a report detailing the challenges faced by its CEO in revitalising the entertainment giant’s film studio ⁴. This highlights specific difficulties within the entertainment industry. Despite an earlier boost from the announced sale of its Family Dollar brand, shares of Dollar Tree (DLTR) slipped by 5.5%, with analysts citing potential headwinds related to tariffs as a contributing factor ⁴. This illustrates the widespread impact of tariff concerns across various sectors of the economy.

In contrast to the general downward trend, some companies experienced positive movements. W.R. Berkley (WRB) saw its shares surge by 7.5% after Japan’s Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance (MSI) announced its intention to acquire a 15% stake in the insurance firm ⁴. This demonstrates that positive company-specific news can still act as a powerful catalyst for individual stock performance, even amidst broader market turbulence. Welltower (WELL), a real estate investment trust focused on healthcare facilities, saw its shares increase by 2.3% following an upgrade to its credit rating ⁴. This suggests a degree of investor confidence in certain segments of the REIT market, particularly those related to healthcare infrastructure. American Water Works (AWK), a major utility company, reported a 2.2% increase in its share price after announcing a substantial plan to invest approximately $40 billion in its national infrastructure over the next decade ⁴. Notably, utility stocks were among the few to register gains during the week, indicating a potential shift towards more defensive investments in a volatile market environment. This outperformance of utility stocks suggests a “flight to safety” mentality among investors, who often view these companies as more stable and less susceptible to economic downturns, making them an attractive option during periods of uncertainty.

Mega-cap technology stocks generally experienced declines, with significant drops observed in the shares of Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta Platforms (META), each falling by more than 4%. Microsoft (MSFT) and Tesla (TSLA) also saw their stock prices decrease by over 3% ⁴. This broad weakness in the technology sector could be attributed to a combination of factors, including concerns about the potential impact of tariffs on technology hardware and fears of a broader economic slowdown that could reduce demand for technology products and services. Chipmakers were particularly hard hit, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) sliding by 3% ⁴. This suggests that the technology hardware segment is perceived as particularly vulnerable to the ongoing trade tensions and their potential to disrupt global supply chains. Stocks related to cryptocurrencies also experienced significant declines, with Strategy (MSTR), MARA Holdings, and Coinbase all falling sharply as the price of Bitcoin lost ground ⁴. This decrease in the value of cryptocurrency-related assets indicates a reduced appetite for riskier investments amidst the prevailing market uncertainty.

European Market Performance

European stock markets largely mirrored the negative sentiment observed in the US during the week ending March 28, 2025, primarily driven by concerns surrounding escalating US trade tensions. The FTSE 100 in the UK, however, showed some resilience, ending the week with a marginal gain of 0.14% at 8658.85 ²⁵. Despite closing down 0.1% on Friday ²⁶, the index managed to recover from earlier weakness to finish the day slightly higher ²⁷. In contrast, the German DAX experienced a significant decline of 2.7% over the week, closing at 22,455 on Friday, after a nearly 1% drop on the final trading day ²⁸. Morning data on Friday had indicated a 0.8% decrease ²⁹. The French CAC 40 also ended the week in negative territory, down by 1.58% at 7916.08, with a 0.5% fall on Friday ¹⁰. The broader European indices, the STOXX Europe 600 and the STOXX Europe 50, also registered losses, declining by 1.38% and 1.61% respectively for the week ³¹. On Friday morning, the STOXX Europe 600 was down by 0.2% ¹¹.

A significant factor weighing on European markets was the growing apprehension regarding the global economic repercussions of the intensifying trade war initiated by US President Trump ¹⁰. President Trump’s imposition of a 25% import tariff on the car industry heightened anxieties in Europe, particularly ahead of an April 2nd deadline for potential reciprocal tariffs on US trading partners ¹¹. European markets, especially the DAX due to its substantial representation of automotive companies, are particularly susceptible to US trade policy decisions. The direct impact of these auto tariffs, coupled with the looming threat of further tariffs on key sectors such as pharmaceuticals and technology, has generated considerable uncertainty and negatively impacted investor confidence across the continent. Germany’s robust automotive sector makes its stock market particularly vulnerable to tariffs on car imports, directly threatening the profitability of its major automakers and related industries, leading to a sell-off in their stocks and a decline in the overall DAX index.

The UK’s economic data released during the week presented a mixed picture. The UK economy recorded a marginal growth of 0.1% in the fourth quarter, aligning with initial estimates ²⁷. Additionally, overall retail sales showed a positive trend, logging a 1% monthly growth following a 1.4% increase in January ²⁷. However, the UK visible trade gap widened during the period, although the total trade deficit saw a decrease due to an increase in the surplus from the services sector ²⁷. While the UK’s economic data offered some mixed signals, the slight positive GDP growth and the increase in retail sales may have provided a degree of support to the FTSE 100, potentially explaining its relatively stronger performance compared to its European counterparts. Nevertheless, the persistent threat of US tariffs likely limited more substantial gains in the UK market.

Across the Eurozone, market focus remained on the potential implications and impact of the escalating tariff wars on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decisions ¹⁹. Adding to the uncertainty, the European Union announced its preparations for a “timely, robust, and well-calibrated response” to the newly imposed US import tariffs ⁹. This planned reaction by the EU to US tariffs introduces an additional layer of uncertainty to the global trade outlook. The potential for retaliatory measures from the EU could further escalate trade tensions between the two major economic blocs, potentially hindering global economic growth and negatively affecting stock markets throughout Europe. If the EU implements its own tariffs on US goods in response to the US actions, it could trigger a full-blown trade war, characterised by increasing barriers to trade. Such a scenario would likely harm businesses and consumers in both regions, leading to reduced economic growth and a corresponding negative impact on stock market valuations.

Sector-specific movements and company news further shaped the performance of European markets. The automotive sector was significantly impacted by the US auto tariffs, with major German carmakers including Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, BMW, and Volkswagen all experiencing declines in their share prices ¹⁰. Stellantis also saw a notable decrease in its value ¹³. Miners and oil majors generally struggled during the week, with companies like Anglo American and BP seeing their stock prices fall ²⁶. In contrast, the utilities sector demonstrated relative strength, with SSE, United Utilities, and Severn Trent all registering gains ²⁶. This trend mirrors the “flight to safety” observed in the US market, where investors sought out more stable and defensive assets. The retail sector saw some positive movement, primarily driven by Next Plc, which reported positive earnings guidance ¹⁰. This highlights that positive company-specific news can still provide a boost to sector performance, even in the face of broader market headwinds. In Germany, banking and energy stocks led the declines in the DAX on Friday, with Commerzbank and Siemens Energy experiencing significant plunges in their share prices ²⁸.

Asian Market Performance

Asian stock markets generally experienced a negative week ending March 28, 2025, largely influenced by the escalating trade tensions between the US and China and the broader implications of US tariff policies. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell by 1.48% for the week, closing at 37120.33, with a notable 1.8% tumble on Friday ¹². Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index also retreated, dropping by 0.9% on Friday to close at 23,426 ¹⁰. Futures for the Hang Seng Index expiring in March 2025 closed at 23,461, down 0.66% on Friday ³⁴. China’s Shanghai Composite Index saw a more modest decline of 0.7% on Friday, closing at 3,351 ¹⁰. While direct weekly performance data for the Shanghai Composite for the week ending March 28th was not available, the 1.60% decline reported for the week ending March 21st, coupled with Friday’s drop, suggests an overall negative performance for the week ³⁵.

The prevailing US trade tensions played a significant role in shaping the cautious and negative sentiment across Asian markets ⁹. The announcement of new US tariffs, particularly on the automotive industry, heightened concerns about the potential for an intensified trade conflict between the world’s largest economies. Given the intricate nature of global supply chains, tariffs imposed by the US, especially on major trading partners like China, have a cascading effect throughout Asian markets. Investors are increasingly worried about the potential for reduced demand for exports from the region and disruptions to established manufacturing processes, which collectively weigh heavily on market sentiment. The interconnectedness of these economies means that any trade barriers erected by major players like the US can significantly impact the growth prospects of Asian nations heavily reliant on international trade.

Economic data from Japan provided a mixed picture. The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March revealed a higher-than-anticipated increase in the cost of living, suggesting that the Bank of Japan is likely to proceed with further interest rate hikes ⁹. Specifically, consumer prices excluding fresh food rose by 2.4% in March, while the overall inflation rate climbed to 2.9% ⁹. While rising inflation can sometimes be interpreted as a positive indicator of economic activity, the anticipation of further interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan could potentially dampen investor sentiment in the short term. Higher interest rates tend to increase borrowing costs for businesses, which can lead to reduced investment and potentially slow down the pace of economic growth.

Investors in the Asian region also remained cautious, particularly awaiting the release of China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, which serves as a key indicator of the country’s manufacturing and service sector activity ¹⁰. The economic health of China is a critical factor for global markets, especially for other Asian economies that are deeply integrated into China’s extensive supply chains. Any signs of weakness or slowing momentum in China’s economic data can trigger broader concerns about regional growth prospects and consequently exert a negative influence on stock market performance across Asia.

South Korea’s KOSPI index experienced a notable decline of 1.7% during the week, with weakness observed in both the technology and automotive sectors ¹⁰. This sector-specific weakness mirrors the trends seen in other regions, particularly Europe, and is likely attributable to the overarching concerns regarding the potential impact of US tariffs on these industries. Interestingly, despite a bullish outlook upgrade from Morgan Stanley for the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index still retreated, primarily due to the prevailing anxieties surrounding trade ¹⁰. This highlights the significant negative impact that trade tensions can have on market sentiment, often overriding even positive fundamental analysis. Data regarding the Price-to-Earnings (PE) and Price-to-Book (PB) ratios for various Shanghai Stock Exchange indices from CEIC indicated daily fluctuations, but the provided snippets did not offer a clear indication of the overall weekly trend for these valuation metrics ³⁷.

Indian Market Performance

The Indian stock market experienced a relatively subdued trading week ending March 28, 2025, with the major indices registering slight declines on the final day of the fiscal year (FY25). The Nifty 50 closed at 23,519.35, down by 0.31% on Friday ¹⁴, while the BSE Sensex ended the session at 77,414.92, a decrease of 0.25% ¹⁴. Broader market indices, including the Nifty Midcap100 and Nifty Smallcap100, also closed in negative territory on Friday ¹⁴.

The slightly muted performance on the last trading day of the fiscal year might reflect a degree of profit-taking or portfolio adjustments by investors as they finalised their accounts for the year ¹⁴. At the close of a fiscal year, investors and fund managers often review their investment portfolios and may decide to sell off certain holdings to realise accumulated profits or to rebalance their asset allocation strategies for the upcoming financial year. This increased selling pressure can contribute to a slight downward movement in the overall market.

Examining sector-specific movements revealed a mixed landscape. The Information Technology (IT) sector emerged as one of the weakest performers, with the Nifty IT index declining by a significant 1.76% ¹⁴. Major IT companies such as Wipro, LTIMindtree, and HCL Tech experienced substantial losses in their stock values. This notable decline in the IT sector could be attributed to growing concerns about a potential slowdown in the global economy, particularly in the United States, which remains a primary market for Indian IT services. The uncertainties surrounding international trade and the potential impact of tariffs on US businesses might also be contributing factors, leading to apprehensions about future IT spending by American companies. In contrast, sectors such as Financial Services, Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG), Private Banks, and select segments of the Healthcare industry demonstrated relative resilience, managing to hold up reasonably well during the trading session ¹⁴. The Real Estate sector, however, also witnessed a decline ¹⁴. The India VIX, an indicator of market volatility, saw a spike of 4.37%, suggesting an increase in overall market uncertainty ¹⁴.

Interestingly, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net buyers in the Indian market in March (as of March 28th), marking the first time in six months that they have shown a net positive investment flow ³⁸. While the overall market ended lower on Friday, the fact that FIIs became net buyers for the month suggests an underlying positive sentiment towards the Indian market in the medium term. However, short-term global headwinds and the specific factors influencing the last trading day of the fiscal year might have contributed to the Friday decline. India’s foreign exchange reserves showed a healthy increase, rising to $658.8 billion in the week ending March 28th, an addition of $4.5 billion ⁴². This robust level of forex reserves provides a crucial buffer against potential external economic shocks and can contribute to the stability of the Indian Rupee, which is generally viewed favourably by investors. A strong level of foreign exchange reserves enhances the Reserve Bank of India’s capacity to intervene in the currency market to manage volatility and support the value of the Rupee, thereby fostering greater investor confidence in the Indian economy.

At the company level, several specific news items influenced stock movements. Shares of Cyient DLM experienced a significant surge following an upgrade by Kotak Institutional Equities ¹⁴. Shree Cement received a positive ‘buy’ rating from Nomura, leading to an increase in its stock price ¹⁴. Conversely, Kesoram Industries saw a sharp decline in its share value after a notable block deal ¹⁴. Shares of Indian Overseas Bank hit a 52-week low after newly issued shares allocated to qualified institutional buyers were listed on the exchange ³⁹. Bharat Forge witnessed an increase in its stock price after securing a substantial domestic contract with the Ministry of Defence ⁴⁰. Ashok Leyland’s Defence business also reported winning multiple orders, positively impacting its stock ⁴⁰.

Oceania Market Performance

The Oceania stock markets presented a mixed picture for the week ending March 28, 2025. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index closed at 7,982 on Friday, registering a modest gain of 0.16% for the day ⁴³. While a definitive weekly performance could not be ascertained from the provided snippets, the daily movements suggested a slightly positive trend overall for the week ⁴³. New Zealand’s NZX 50 index demonstrated stronger positive momentum, gaining 0.2% on Friday and an impressive 1.8% over the preceding five days ⁴⁴.

Similar to other global markets, the prevailing global trade tensions likely influenced market sentiment in the Oceania region, given the significant reliance of both Australia and New Zealand on international trade ⁹. In Australia, a significant political development occurred with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s announcement of a federal election to be held on May 3rd ³⁶. The upcoming election is anticipated to primarily focus on pressing domestic issues such as the cost of living and the ongoing housing crisis. The announcement of an election often introduces a degree of political uncertainty into the market, as investors begin to evaluate the potential implications of different government policies and their potential impact on the economy and specific sectors.

Economic data from New Zealand offered some insights into the market’s performance. Consumer sentiment in New Zealand eased slightly in March ⁴⁵. However, the New Zealand Dollar experienced gains against a softer US Dollar ⁴⁵. A significant positive development was the report that the New Zealand economy had posted a growth of 0.7% in the latest quarter, marking a recovery after two consecutive quarters of contraction ⁴⁵. This positive economic news likely played a crucial role in supporting the NZX 50’s robust positive weekly performance, suggesting that a strengthening domestic economy can provide a buffer against broader global headwinds and bolster local investor confidence. Economic expansion generally translates to improved corporate earnings and increased investor optimism, both of which are positive catalysts for stock market performance. Japan’s Tokyo CPI data revealed higher-than-expected inflation ³⁶, which, while primarily impacting the Japanese market, could have a minor indirect influence on the Australian and New Zealand markets due to regional economic linkages.

At the company level, several announcements were made in the Australian market. ASX Limited (ASX) issued a response to media speculation ⁴³. IDP Education Limited (IEL) reported changes in its substantial holdings ⁴³. Viva Energy Group Limited (VEA) made announcements concerning its securities and director interests ⁴³. In New Zealand, Gentrack (GTK) and Contact Energy (CEN) were among the top-performing stocks on the NZX 50, while Kathmandu Brands (KMD) and Vulcan Steel (VSL) were among the main decliners ⁴⁴.

Conclusion

The week ending March 28, 2025, witnessed a predominantly negative trend across global stock markets, largely fueled by escalating concerns regarding inflation and the potential fallout from intensifying trade tensions initiated by the United States. The majority of major indices in the US, Europe, and Asia experienced declines, reflecting investor anxieties about a potential slowdown in economic growth amid a global trade war and persistent inflationary pressures.

A dominant theme across the global markets was the significant impact of US tariffs. The announcement of new tariffs on automobiles and the anticipation of further reciprocal tariffs created a cloud of uncertainty over global trade and economic prospects. Sectors with substantial international exposure, particularly the automotive and technology industries, felt the negative effects of these concerns across various regions. Elevated inflation readings, especially in the US and Japan, also remained a key worry for investors, raising questions about the future trajectory of monetary policy and contributing to the risk-averse sentiment observed in the markets.

Despite the overarching negative trend, some regional markets exhibited diverging performance. The UK’s FTSE 100 demonstrated relative resilience, managing to end the week with a slight gain, possibly supported by moderately positive domestic economic data. Similarly, New Zealand’s NZX 50 performed positively, likely buoyed by stronger-than-anticipated domestic GDP growth. The Indian market experienced a more muted decline on the final trading day of its fiscal year, with certain sectors showing strength and foreign institutional investors turning net buyers for the month, suggesting a potentially more optimistic underlying outlook compared to some other regions.

Looking ahead, the approaching April 2nd deadline for potential reciprocal tariffs and the scheduled release of crucial economic data in various regions are likely to maintain a heightened level of market volatility in the near term. Investors will be closely monitoring developments in trade relations and any indications of shifts in inflation trends to gauge the future direction of global stock markets.

Disclaimer

The information provided in this article is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. The analysis is based on information available up to March 28, 2025, and market conditions can change rapidly. Readers are advised to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The performance data presented is based on publicly available information and may be subject to revisions. No guarantees or assurances are made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information provided.

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