Global Stock Market Review: Week Ending April 25, 2025

The week ending April 25, 2025, was marked by significant turbulence across global financial markets. Investor sentiment swung dramatically, reacting primarily to shifting signals regarding United States trade policy, particularly the status of substantial tariffs aimed at China and other key trading partners. Markets began the period under pressure following the announcement of harsher-than-expected US tariffs earlier in the month, sparking fears of a global recession, escalating trade wars, and increased inflation.¹ However, a notable rebound occurred mid-week across many developed markets as reports and official comments suggested a potential de-escalation and a willingness from the US administration to negotiate, offering tariff relief.⁴

This complex interplay between trade policy uncertainty, the ongoing corporate earnings season, central bank communications, and distinct geopolitical events, such as heightened tensions between India and Pakistan ⁸, shaped market dynamics. Performance diverged significantly across regions and asset classes. While US technology stocks staged a strong recovery, Chinese markets lagged, and safe-haven assets like gold experienced considerable volatility, hitting record highs before retreating.¹¹ Despite the mid-week relief rally lifting many major indices to positive territory for the week ¹³, underlying uncertainty about the global economic trajectory persisted.

Global Market Pulse: Weekly Index Performance Snapshot

The following table provides a high-level overview of the performance of major global stock market indices for the week ending April 25, 2025.

Note: Closing levels are approximate as of Friday, April 25, 2025, unless otherwise stated. Weekly changes are based on available data from sources for the week ending April 25, 2025. Some point changes are calculated based on closing levels and percentage changes provided in the sources. N/A indicates data not readily available in the provided snippets.

United States: Markets Rebound on Trade Hopes and Tech Strength

US equity markets staged a significant recovery during the week, reversing sharp losses incurred earlier in the month. The S&P 500 surged 4.59%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2.48%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the gains with an impressive 6.70% rise.⁴ Small- and mid-capitalisation stocks also participated in the rally, posting gains for the third consecutive week.⁴ This rebound followed a period of intense selling pressure triggered by the Trump administration’s announcement of broad and severe import tariffs.¹

The primary catalyst for the week’s turnaround was a perceived softening in the US stance on trade policy. Multiple reports and comments from President Trump suggested a potential de-escalation of tensions with China and other trading partners, including the possibility of exemptions or future negotiations aimed at reducing tariff levels.⁴ While officials later clarified that no immediate tariff cuts were proposed and that reductions would be part of future negotiations ⁵, the shift in rhetoric was enough to buoy investor sentiment significantly. Adding to the positive tone, President Trump appeared to retract earlier threats to dismiss Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, alleviating concerns about the central bank’s independence.⁴

Support also came from the ongoing first-quarter earnings season. A substantial majority of companies reporting results surpassed consensus expectations, with data indicating a 73% beat rate among S&P 500 companies reporting through Friday morning.⁴ Technology giants like Alphabet, Microsoft, Nvidia, and ServiceNow delivered strong results or positive outlooks, fueling the Nasdaq’s outperformance.⁵ However, not all earnings news was positive; companies like IBM and Intel disappointed investors ⁵, and several firms, including Kimberly-Clark, Halliburton, Procter & Gamble, and PepsiCo, explicitly warned about the potential negative impact of tariffs on future performance and outlooks.⁷ This contrast between strong backward-looking Q1 results and forward-looking tariff concerns suggests potential vulnerability for corporate profits if trade tensions reignite or the implemented tariffs begin to weigh more heavily on supply chains and costs.

Economic data presented a mixed picture, creating some underlying caution. The S&P Global Flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) indicated that overall US business activity growth slowed to a 16-month low in April, primarily dragged down by a sharp deceleration in the services sector.⁴ Manufacturing activity, however, showed a slight, unexpected increase.⁴ Prices charged by businesses rose at the fastest rate in over a year, linked partly to tariffs, while business expectations dipped.⁴ Durable goods orders rose for the third month, but the increase was heavily skewed by a surge in volatile aircraft orders, potentially placed in anticipation of tariffs, while orders excluding transportation were flat.⁴ The labour market appeared resilient, with March nonfarm payrolls beating expectations ¹ and weekly jobless claims remaining stable.²⁶ Conversely, existing home sales plummeted in March, hitting their lowest level for that month since 2009, attributed to high mortgage rates and affordability challenges.⁴ The market’s ability to rally strongly despite these mixed, and in some cases weak, economic signals underscores the extent to which investors prioritised the perceived reduction in the immediate trade war threat over underlying economic fundamentals during this specific week.

Trading activity was observed to be relatively light throughout the week, with volumes remaining below year-to-date averages.⁴ This could suggest that while sentiment improved, conviction among some market participants might have been limited, potentially leaving the rally susceptible to reversals should negative news regarding trade or the economy emerge.

Europe: Gains Fueled by Easing Trade Fears and ECB Support

European stock markets registered substantial gains, recouping some of the significant losses experienced earlier in April. Germany’s DAX index led the major bourses with a strong 4.89% weekly advance, followed by France’s CAC 40 (+3.44%), Italy’s FTSE MIB (+3.80%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (+1.69%).⁴ The pan-European STOXX 600 index also moved higher, recovering from three consecutive sessions in the red earlier in the period.¹⁶ On Wednesday, the DAX reached its highest level since early April, driven partly by strong corporate earnings.⁵

The primary driver for this robust performance was the significant relief felt across the continent as signals emerged from the US suggesting a potential easing of trade tensions.⁴ European economies, being heavily reliant on global trade, are particularly sensitive to protectionist measures, and the prospect of reduced US tariffs provided a major boost to sentiment. The strong rebound, especially in the trade-sensitive German market, highlights this vulnerability and the market’s positive reaction to perceived de-escalation, perhaps more so than reflecting a fundamental improvement in the European economic outlook, which remains clouded by trade policy uncertainty.¹⁷

Monetary policy also played a supportive role. The European Central Bank (ECB) proceeded with an anticipated 25 basis point cut to its key deposit rate, bringing it to 2.25%.¹⁷ In its communication, the ECB removed language indicating policy was becoming less restrictive and reiterated its data-dependent approach. Crucially, the central bank acknowledged that growth prospects had deteriorated due to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade policy.¹⁷ This messaging, coupled with expectations for potential further easing ¹⁷, likely reassured investors. However, the ECB’s actions and commentary also implicitly underscore the central bank’s concerns about the potential damage trade conflicts could inflict on European growth, suggesting monetary easing is being employed, at least partially, to counteract these external headwinds.

Corporate earnings provided additional fuel for the rally. German software giant SAP saw its shares surge over 10% after reporting operating profit significantly above forecasts, lifting the broader technology sector.⁵ Banking and automotive stocks also performed well during the week.⁵ On the economic front, data was mixed. German business sentiment, measured by the IFO Institute, improved in March, seemingly boosted by prospects of fiscal stimulus, though concerns about the impact of US tariffs lingered.¹⁶ However, broader Eurozone private sector activity growth slowed in April, hampered by tariff uncertainty ⁵, and UK retail sales growth also moderated.²⁹

Asia-Pacific: A Mixed Picture Amid Global Crosscurrents

Asian markets presented a varied landscape during the week. While generally benefiting from the improved global sentiment surrounding US trade policy, regional performance diverged, influenced by local factors and specific economic sensitivities. Trading was shortened in some markets, with Australia and New Zealand closed on Friday for the ANZAC Day public holiday.⁷

Japan: Japanese equities tracked global trends higher, with the Nikkei 225 Index gaining 2.8% for the week.⁴ The broader TOPIX index also advanced 2.7%.¹⁸ Sentiment was primarily lifted by the tentative signs of easing global trade tensions ⁴, mirroring the reaction in the US and Europe. A weakening yen, which traded around JPY 143 against the US dollar compared to JPY 142 the previous week, provided additional support for Japan’s export-oriented companies.⁷ Gains in the automotive sector were noted following suggestions the US might grant exemptions on auto-related levies.³⁰ The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond rose to 1.34% from 1.29%.¹⁸ Domestic economic data, including mixed purchasing managers’ index readings showing strength in services but continued decline in manufacturing ⁶, appeared secondary to the dominant global trade narrative.

China & Hong Kong: Performance starkly diverged between Hong Kong and mainland China. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was a regional outperformer, surging 3.15% for the week ¹³, driven by strong gains mid-week.⁵ The rally was fueled by President Trump’s comments about potentially lowering tariffs significantly and seeking a deal, which boosted internationally-focused investors’ appetite for Hong Kong-listed stocks.⁵ Technology shares, including Tencent and NetEase benefiting from game approvals ⁵, and consumer stocks rallied on hopes for policy stimulus to counter US tariffs.⁵ In contrast, mainland China’s markets were far more subdued. The Shanghai Composite Index eked out a modest 0.56% weekly gain ¹⁹, while the CSI 300 index traded flat-to-low mid-week.⁶ This lagging performance reflected deeper concerns about the direct impact of the trade war on China’s already struggling economy and scepticism about whether substantive trade talks would materialise.⁶ China’s official stance that no trade talks had yet occurred likely contributed to this caution.⁷ Underlying support in mainland markets stemmed from expectations of further government stimulus measures.¹⁷ Notably, significant inflows were reported into Chinese gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) ¹², despite official warnings against speculation.¹² This surge suggests strong underlying demand for safe-haven assets within China, possibly reflecting investor unease about economic prospects and trade uncertainty, and perhaps a search for reliable stores of value. The difference in performance between Hong Kong and the Mainland likely reflects Hong Kong’s greater integration with international capital flows, making it more immediately reactive to global news headlines, whereas Mainland markets remained weighed down by domestic economic concerns and policy uncertainty.

India: Indian markets experienced a volatile week, ultimately finishing with gains but facing a sharp pullback late in the period. The Nifty 50 index rose 1.7% week-on-week ¹⁰, and the Sensex also closed higher for the week despite Friday’s losses.⁸ Both benchmarks had reached record highs earlier in the week, extending a seven-day winning streak ²⁰, before succumbing to profit-taking on Thursday ²⁶ and a significant drop on Friday.⁸ Early week strength was attributed to positive global cues stemming from easing trade fears ¹⁰, robust foreign institutional investor (FII) buying ⁸, and continued optimism about India’s domestic growth trajectory.³⁵ However, sentiment soured dramatically on Friday. The primary trigger was identified as escalating geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan following a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir.⁸ This event prompted profit-taking after the market’s extended rally, with analysts also citing concerns about stretched valuations.¹⁰ Disappointing fourth-quarter earnings results from some companies, including Maruti Suzuki, ACC ⁸, and Axis Bank ¹⁰, added to the negative pressure. The banking sector was noted as a significant drag on Friday.¹⁰ This sharp correction, driven by local geopolitical factors overriding positive global cues, highlights the market’s sensitivity to regional risks, especially after a period of strong gains may have left it vulnerable to profit-taking. Ongoing US-India trade deal negotiations also remained a background factor.³⁶

Oceania (Australia): With the S&P/ASX 200 market closed on Friday for ANZAC Day ⁷, the week’s performance reflected trading through Thursday. The index likely finished the week on a positive note, benefiting from the global relief rally.²² Thursday’s session saw strong buying in major banks and mining companies like BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue Metals, often considered safe havens within the Australian market context.²² Earlier in the week, however, the market had faced headwinds from the initial US tariff shock and associated global recession fears.²² Sentiment shifts were closely tied to developments in US trade policy.³⁹ Commodity prices, particularly iron ore and gold, and the performance of the large resources sector remained key influences.²² Commentary from the Reserve Bank of Australia may also have played a role in market movements.³⁴

Commodities in Focus: Gold’s Volatility and Oil’s Continued Slide

Commodity markets experienced notable moves, reacting to the week’s shifting risk appetite and global growth concerns.

Gold: The precious metal saw extreme volatility. Early in the week, gold prices surged, briefly touching a new all-time record high above $3,500 per ounce.¹² This spike was driven by classic safe-haven demand amid peak anxiety over US tariffs, trade wars, and concerns about Federal Reserve independence.¹² However, as headlines shifted towards potential trade de-escalation later in the week, gold prices reversed sharply, falling over 2% on Friday and dipping below $3,300 per ounce.¹¹ This rapid pullback from record highs, closely mirroring the easing of trade fears, suggests that a significant portion of the recent rally was fueled by haven flows seeking refuge from perceived geopolitical risk, rather than solely fundamental drivers. The speed of the reversal indicates this “fear premium” dissipated quickly when the immediate threat appeared to lessen. Despite the decline, gold was on track for only its third weekly loss in 2025 ¹² and remained substantially higher year-to-date.¹¹ Demand dynamics were mixed geographically, with reports of surging interest in China, particularly via ETFs ¹², contrasting with weak physical demand in India, where prices traded at a significant discount to international benchmarks.¹² Major institutional investors showed some caution, with outflows observed from the large SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) ETF.¹² Nevertheless, some analysts maintained bullish long-term forecasts, citing factors like potential US dollar weakness and ongoing policy uncertainty.¹¹

Crude Oil: Oil prices continued their downward trend, marking a significant two-week decline.⁵ West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded in the $62-$63 per barrel range ¹, while Brent crude hovered around $66-$67 per barrel.⁵ The primary drivers behind the weakness were persistent fears that escalating trade tensions and tariffs could trigger a global economic slowdown, thereby hurting oil demand.¹ Reports of potential supply increases from OPEC+ members added further downward pressure.¹ The continued slide in prices, even amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions in various regions, suggests that demand destruction concerns linked to the trade war narrative were the dominant factor for oil traders during the week, outweighing supply-side risks or existing geopolitical risk premiums. The impact of lower prices was reflected in the energy sector, with companies like Halliburton reporting results that gave little clarity on outlook amid the challenging price environment.¹³

Other Commodities: Copper prices eased back slightly from recent highs.¹² Natural gas prices experienced a notable drop during the week.¹³

Conclusion: Relief Rally Meets Lingering Uncertainty

The week ending April 25, 2025, concluded with a sense of cautious optimism across many global stock markets, a stark contrast to the acute fear that gripped investors following the initial US tariff announcements earlier in the month. A significant relief rally took hold, particularly in the US and Europe, driven almost entirely by hopes that the most severe trade war scenarios might be averted through negotiation and de-escalation.⁴ Technology stocks spearheaded the recovery in the United States, while European bourses benefited broadly from the improved global risk sentiment.

However, the picture in Asia was more fragmented. While Japan and Hong Kong participated strongly in the rally ¹³, mainland Chinese markets remained subdued, reflecting persistent concerns about the domestic economic impact of tariffs.⁶ India, after reaching new highs, suffered a sharp pullback triggered by specific regional geopolitical tensions, demonstrating the potential for local factors to override global trends.⁸

Despite the week’s positive finish for many indices, substantial uncertainty lingers. The actual path of US trade policy and negotiations remains unclear, and the potential long-term impact of existing and future tariffs on corporate earnings and global growth is still a major concern.¹ While Q1 earnings largely beat expectations, warnings about future tariff impacts were notable.⁴ Economic data continues to send mixed signals, with signs of slowing activity in some areas juxtaposed against resilient labour markets in others.¹ Market volatility, therefore, appears likely to persist until greater clarity emerges on these fronts.⁴³

Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor any concrete developments in trade discussions, particularly between the US and China. The remainder of the Q1 earnings season will provide further insights into corporate health and the perceived effects of trade policy. Upcoming economic data releases will be scrutinised for evidence of either a deepening slowdown or continued resilience, while central bank communications will remain critical in shaping expectations for monetary policy support. Geopolitical risks, though receding slightly from the forefront this week, remain a significant background factor capable of influencing market sentiment.

Disclaimer

This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to serve as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Financial markets are subject to volatility, and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information presented herein is based on sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Market conditions can change rapidly, and this report reflects information available up to April 25, 2025.

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