Global Markets Weekly Review: US Hits New Peaks as Regional Fortunes Diverge

A Week of Records, Resilience, and Recalibration

Global financial markets navigated a week of divergent signals and regional fortunes, culminating in a third winning week out of the last four for major US indices.¹ The dominant narrative was one of resilience, particularly in the United States, where strong economic data and a robust start to the corporate earnings season propelled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to new all-time highs before a quiet consolidation into the weekend.³ This performance was underpinned by a growing belief in a “soft landing” for the US economy, where growth remains firm even as inflation expectations cool, giving the Federal Reserve potential room to ease monetary policy later in the year.²

However, this optimism was not universally shared. While Wall Street celebrated new records, performance across Europe, Asia, and India was dictated by a complex interplay of local factors. European bourses posted modest gains, supported by a stable inflation picture and strength in the energy and defence sectors.⁵ The Asia-Pacific region presented the starkest contrasts. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 surged to a record, logging its best week in nearly three months on the back of a powerful rally in commodity prices and growing expectations of a central bank rate cut.⁷ Chinese and Hong Kong markets also advanced strongly, buoyed by supportive economic data and government policy actions aimed at stabilising corporate profitability.⁹

Conversely, markets in Japan were muted by pre-election jitters and persistent inflation, while India’s benchmark indices fell for a third consecutive week.¹¹ The decline in India was driven by disappointing domestic bank earnings and sustained capital outflows from foreign investors, highlighting a clear decoupling from the positive global sentiment.¹³ This divergence underscores a crucial theme: in the current environment, local economic narratives, corporate fundamentals, and domestic policy are increasingly trumping a single, unified global market trend.

The Global Macroeconomic Backdrop: Navigating a Sea of Divergent Signals

The Pulse of the US Economy: The “Soft Landing” Narrative Gains Traction

Investor confidence this week was significantly bolstered by a series of US economic data releases that painted a picture of a remarkably resilient economy. The headline figure was the advance estimate for June retail sales, which grew by a robust 0.6% month-over-month, comfortably beating expectations of a 0.2% rise and reversing two consecutive months of declines.³ This indicates that the American consumer, the primary engine of the US economy, remains healthy and willing to spend, supported by a solid labour market.

That labour market picture was further clarified by data showing initial jobless claims falling to 221,000, below estimates and trending lower in recent weeks.³ With 7.8 million job openings still outnumbering the 7.0 million unemployed, the data suggests a labour market that is gently cooling from a position of strength rather than contracting sharply.³

Crucially, this economic strength did not appear to be stoking inflation fears. The preliminary University of Michigan survey for July showed consumer sentiment rising to a five-month high of 61.8.⁴ More importantly for markets, the same survey revealed that consumers’ one-year inflation expectations fell from 5% to 4.4%.² This combination—strong growth, a healthy labour market, and easing inflation expectations—is the ideal recipe for a “soft landing.” The market is increasingly interpreting this “good news as good news,” believing that the economy is strong enough to thrive without reigniting inflation. This perception allows the Federal Reserve to consider normalising interest rates from their current elevated levels out of choice, not out of a need to combat a recession.

Central Bank Crossroads: A Tale of Three Policies

The week’s events reinforced a growing divergence in the policy paths of the world’s major central banks, a key driver of currency and bond markets.

In the United States, despite the strong economic data, the market continues to price in the possibility of one or two Federal Reserve rate cuts in the second half of 2025.³ This view is supported by commentary from the San Francisco Fed and various Fed governors, who have signalled an expectation for policy to ease later in the year.²⁴ The Fed’s June meeting projections also indicated a median expectation of two cuts by year-end, though a number of members projected no change, highlighting a degree of internal policy uncertainty.²⁵

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) finds itself in a favourable position. Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation held steady at 2.0% in June, precisely meeting the central bank’s target.³ This, combined with data showing German producer prices falling at their fastest pace in nine months, gives the ECB maximum policy flexibility.⁶ The consensus view is that the ECB will hold rates steady in July but keep the door open for a potential cut in September or December, balancing the stable inflation outlook against risks from a strengthening euro and global trade tensions.⁵

In Australia, there was a notable shift in sentiment. Growing signs of economic softness have led to a sharp increase in market expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates at its upcoming August 12 meeting.⁷ This dovish turn is a primary factor fueling the record-breaking rally in the Australian stock market.

Commodity Market Currents: Oil and Gold Tell Different Stories

Commodity markets were caught between competing narratives of geopolitical risk and economic fundamentals.

Crude oil prices rose during the week, with Brent crude futures trading near $70 per barrel.⁵ The gains were driven by supply-side risks, including drone strikes on oilfields in Iraq’s Kurdistan region and fresh European Union sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector.⁵ However, these gains were capped, leading oil to post a small weekly loss. Limiting factors included the prospect of major producers unwinding coordinated output cuts and persistent uncertainty surrounding US trade policy negotiations.⁵

Gold prices, meanwhile, were on track for a modest weekly loss, trading around $3,340 per ounce.⁵ The precious metal was subject to a tug-of-war. On one hand, ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty provided a floor of safe-haven demand. On the other hand, the strong US economic data and a corresponding firming of the US dollar reduced the immediate appeal of gold as a hedge and lessened the perceived urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.¹⁹ The strength of the dollar, which posted a weekly gain, often serves as a headwind for commodities priced in the currency.⁶

North America: A Record-Breaking Week Pauses for Breath

Market Performance in Detail

Wall Street concluded another positive week, though it ended with a quiet session that suggested a market pausing for breath after a powerful, record-setting run. For the week, the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite was the clear leader, surging 1.5% and closing at a new all-time high for five consecutive days.¹ The broad

S&P 500 gained 0.6%, having set its own record high on Thursday before slipping marginally on Friday to close at 6,296.79.¹ 

Dow Jones Industrial Average was the outlier, finishing the week down by a negligible 0.1%, while the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies posted a modest 0.2% gain.¹ This price action, characterised by a strong mid-week push followed by a flat, mixed close, points to a market consolidating its recent gains at elevated levels.

The Fed’s Stance and Economic Data Deep Dive

The market’s bullish sentiment was firmly anchored in the week’s economic data, which supported the narrative of a resilient economy without runaway inflation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June, released earlier in the week, came in line with forecasts, with the core measure (excluding food and energy) at 2.9% year-over-year.³ This contained reading was crucial, as it allows the market to anticipate future Federal Reserve rate cuts as a policy normalisation tool rather than an emergency response to economic collapse.

The labour market data further solidified this view. The trend of lower initial jobless claims, coupled with a still-high number of job openings relative to the number of unemployed individuals, suggests a labour market that is rebalancing in an orderly fashion.³ This resilience gives the Fed confidence that the economy can withstand current interest rate levels, reinforcing the “soft landing” thesis. Commentary from the Federal Reserve itself, through published minutes and speeches by governors, pointed towards a data-dependent approach but with a clear easing bias for later in the year, a view fully embraced by the interest rate futures market.²⁴

Earnings Season: A Market of Stocks, Not a Stock Market

The second-quarter earnings season kicked into high gear, revealing a highly selective market where simply beating expectations was not always enough. The divergence in stock reactions underscored that at current valuations, forward-looking guidance and underlying business trends are paramount.

The Winners: Several companies were rewarded for strong results and optimistic outlooks. The financial sector saw robust performance, with Charles Schwab climbing 2.9% and Regions Financial jumping 6.1% after delivering stronger-than-expected profits.²³ The artificial intelligence theme continued to broaden, benefiting more than just the mega-cap names.

Dell Technologies surged 6% on bullish analyst commentary regarding its potential to capitalise on AI infrastructure spending.⁴ In a sign of the AI theme’s expanding reach, nuclear power companies

Vistra and Constellation Energy rallied 6.1% and 4.3%, respectively, on the narrative that their clean energy will be critical to power energy-intensive data centres.⁴

The Losers: The healthcare sector faced significant headwinds. Insurer Elevance Health (ELV) saw its shares plunge 8.4% after it cut its full-year guidance due to rising costs, creating a ripple effect that dragged down peers. Molina Healthcare (MOH) was the worst performer in the S&P 500 on Friday, falling more than 10% in response to Elevance’s negative outlook.⁴

The “Good-is-Not-Good-Enough” Club: A number of high-profile companies fell despite reporting positive headline numbers, demonstrating the market’s exacting standards. Netflix (NFLX) shares sank 5.1% even after topping profit forecasts. Analysts attributed the drop to profit-taking, as the stock had already soared 43% year-to-date, and concerns about rising costs in the second half of the year.⁴ Industrial conglomerate

3M (MMM) initially rose on a report that beat estimates and raised guidance, but the stock reversed course to fall 3.7% after executives on the earnings call discussed sluggishness in the global economy and challenges in its electronics and auto parts businesses.⁴ Similarly,

American Express (AXP) lost 2.3% despite a profit beat, as investors focused on slowing growth in underlying metrics like the number of new cards issued.²³ This pattern reveals a market that is laser-focused on future growth prospects and is punishing any hint of a slowdown, especially for stocks that have already performed well.

Sector Spotlight

The divergent corporate results translated directly into varied sector performance for the week.

Europe: Cautious Optimism Amid Policy Crosswinds

Market Performance in Detail

European equity markets posted a week of modest gains, navigating a complex environment of stabilising inflation, positive corporate earnings, and persistent concerns over transatlantic trade policy. The pan-European STOXX 600 index recorded its second consecutive weekly advance, rising around 0.3% for the week.⁶

Performance across national indices was mixed. In the UK, the FTSE 100 had a landmark week, rising approximately 0.5% and briefly surpassing the 9,000-point threshold for the first time in its history, driven by strength in heavyweight energy and mining constituents.¹⁶ The index closed Friday at 8,992.12.¹⁷ Germany’s

DAX experienced a volatile week, rallying sharply on Thursday before giving back some gains on Friday to close at 24,290 amid renewed concerns about a trade deal with the US.²⁰ France’s

CAC 40 was a slight underperformer, snapping a three-week winning streak to finish the week down 0.08% at 7,822.67.²¹

Economic Signals and the ECB

The macroeconomic data from the Eurozone provided a constructive backdrop for equities. A key release showed that Eurozone CPI inflation held steady at 2.0% in June, landing squarely on the European Central Bank’s target.³ This “Goldilocks” scenario—where inflation is neither too hot nor too cold—affords the ECB significant policy flexibility. Further evidence of easing price pressures came from Germany, where producer prices (PPI) fell 1.3% year-over-year in June, the largest decline in nine months, suggesting that inflationary pressures at the factory gate continue to abate.⁶

This stable inflation picture allows the ECB to maintain a dovish tilt. The market consensus suggests the central bank will pause its rate-cutting cycle at its upcoming July meeting but will keep the door open for further easing later in the year, likely in September or December.⁵ This supportive monetary policy outlook helped underpin investor sentiment throughout the week.

Corporate and Sector Highlights

Corporate earnings and sector-specific news were major drivers of performance across European bourses.

The Energy sector was a clear outperformer. Geopolitical tensions and concerns over supply disruptions pushed oil prices higher, lifting shares of energy giants like BP, Shell, and TotalEnergies.⁵

The Defence sector also continued its strong run, a direct reflection of the continent’s shifting geopolitical priorities. Swedish defence firm Saab was a standout, with its stock soaring 12.7% after it reported better-than-expected earnings and raised its full-year sales guidance, citing the ongoing rise in defence spending across Europe.⁵

Performance elsewhere was more varied. Danish wind turbine manufacturer Vestas saw its shares gain 8.8% following a rating upgrade from J.P. Morgan.⁶ However, the pharmaceutical space faced headwinds. British giant

GSK saw its stock drop over 6% after a US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) panel advised against the approval of its blood cancer drug, Blenrep.⁶ In the consumer durables space, Swedish appliance maker

Electrolux fell sharply by 14.6% after reporting weak second-quarter results in its European division.⁶ These movements illustrate that, much like in the US, investors are closely scrutinising individual company performance and outlooks.

The changed geopolitical landscape since 2022 has fundamentally reshaped sector leadership in Europe. The sustained strength in the defence and energy sectors is not merely a cyclical phenomenon but a reflection of structural, long-term shifts. Increased national defence budgets are translating directly into robust order books and higher profits for companies like Saab. Similarly, the strategic imperative to ensure energy security keeps prices for traditional energy sources elevated, benefiting the continent’s integrated oil majors. These sectors are now driven by non-discretionary government spending and strategic policy, making them core pillars of the European market in a way they have not been for years.

Asia-Pacific: A Region of Stark Contrasts

The Asia-Pacific region offered a vivid illustration of how domestic narratives are increasingly driving market outcomes, resulting in a week of starkly divergent performances that defied any single regional trend.

Greater China: Policy Support and Tech Optimism Fuel Gains

Chinese and Hong Kong equity markets delivered a strong performance, fueled by a combination of resilient economic data and decisive policy signals from Beijing. Mainland China’s blue-chip CSI300 index was on track for its fourth consecutive weekly gain, rising 1.0%, while the Shanghai Composite also advanced.¹⁰ The rally was even more pronounced in Hong Kong, where the

Hang Seng Index surged 2.8% for the week to close at a four-month high.⁹

This optimism was driven by several key factors. First, official data showed China’s Q2 GDP grew at a 5.2% year-on-year pace, keeping the country on track to meet its annual growth target of around 5% and prompting some analysts to upgrade their forecasts.³¹ Second, investor sentiment received a major boost from Beijing’s pledge to crack down on “irrational” and cut-throat price competition, particularly within the electric vehicle (EV) sector. Investors interpreted this as a move to protect corporate profitability and stabilise the market.¹⁰ Finally, the technology sector rebounded strongly. The Hang Seng Tech index was lifted by news that Nvidia would increase the supply of compliant AI chips to China, easing fears of a complete technological decoupling and sending shares of companies like

Alibaba up nearly 10% for the week.⁹

Japan: Pre-Election Jitters and Inflation Woes Cap Gains

In Japan, the market mood was far more cautious. The Nikkei 225 index experienced a choppy week, ultimately closing with a modest gain of 0.4%.¹² The index fell 0.2% on Friday to finish at 39,819, as two key domestic factors weighed on sentiment.¹²

The primary headwind was political uncertainty ahead of the weekend’s upper house election. Polls indicated that the ruling coalition was in danger of losing its majority, raising the prospect of political instability and policy gridlock.¹² Compounding this was a persistent inflation problem. Japan’s core inflation for June rose 3.3% year-over-year. While this was a slight slowdown from May, it remained significantly above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, limiting the central bank’s ability to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy and creating uncertainty for investors.¹⁵

India: Domestic Headwinds Trigger a Third Week of Declines

Indian markets completely disconnected from the positive sentiment seen elsewhere, slumping for a third consecutive week. The Nifty 50 index fell 0.72% for the week, while the BSE Sensex dropped 0.61%.¹¹ The price action was technically weak, with the Nifty closing below its closely watched 50-day simple moving average for the first time since April, a bearish signal for traders.¹¹

The decline was driven by a potent cocktail of domestic concerns. The primary catalyst was the disappointing start to the Q1 earnings season, particularly from the influential banking sector. Shares of Axis Bank tumbled more than 5% on Friday after reporting a drop in net profit, an event that soured sentiment across the entire financial space and dragged the Nifty Bank Index down over 1%.¹³ This was exacerbated by sustained selling from Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs), who have pulled a substantial ₹17,330 crore (approximately $2 billion) from Indian equities in July alone.¹³ With the Nifty’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio trading above its long-term average, these weak earnings and foreign outflows gave investors a reason to take profits.¹³ Sectorally, Private Banks, Consumer Durables, and Financial Services were the worst performers, while Media, Metal, and IT showed some resilience.¹¹

Oceania: Australia’s Market Hits a New Summit on Commodity Strength

In stark contrast to India, Australia’s market had a banner week. The S&P/ASX 200 index surged 2.1%, marking its strongest weekly performance in nearly three months and closing at a new all-time high of 8,757.2.⁷ The rally was broad-based, with all 11 market sectors advancing on Friday.³⁵

The performance was overwhelmingly driven by the country’s heavyweight materials and mining sector, which was lifted by a surge in global commodity prices. Mining giant BHP Group jumped 3% after announcing record annual output for copper and robust production of iron ore.⁷ Lithium miners also soared, with

Pilbara Minerals gaining 8.1% and Mineral Resources up 5%, after a production halt at a major producer in China sent lithium prices higher.⁷ This commodity strength was amplified by the aforementioned shift in monetary policy expectations, with investors now betting heavily that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates in August to support a softening economy.⁷ The healthcare sector, led by a 7% weekly jump in

CSL, and the big four banks also contributed significantly to the record-setting advance.³⁵

The dramatically different outcomes in India and Australia, two major economies in the same broad region, provide the week’s most compelling evidence that global markets are no longer moving in lockstep. While both were subject to the same overarching global macroeconomic forces, their paths were ultimately determined by their own domestic stories. Australia leveraged the positive global mood and amplified it with its unique strengths: a booming commodity sector and the prospect of monetary easing. India, meanwhile, was dragged down by its own set of challenges: a disappointing earnings cycle and persistent foreign capital outflows. This divergence demonstrates that for global investors, a deep understanding of local fundamentals—earnings, capital flows, and central bank policy—is now more critical than ever for successful regional allocation.

Conclusion: Key Takeaways and a Look Ahead

The week ending July 18, 2025, was a study in contrasts. In the United States, the narrative of economic resilience solidified, allowing markets to climb to new heights, yet the sharp punishment of companies with anything less than perfect earnings reports revealed the anxieties lurking beneath the surface of record-high valuations. In Europe, a stable inflation picture provided a foundation for cautious optimism, with markets benefiting from a supportive central bank and the structural tailwinds of increased defence and energy spending.

The most telling story, however, was the great divergence across the Asia-Pacific. The region provided a clear signal that markets are increasingly marching to the beat of their own domestic drums. Australia’s commodity-fueled boom, China’s policy-driven rally, Japan’s politically-induced caution, and India’s earnings-led slump created a fragmented performance map that defied a single global narrative.

Looking ahead, the focus will intensify on corporate earnings, which have proven to be the key differentiator for stock performance. The upcoming week will see reports from US technology titans including Alphabet, Tesla, and IBM, which will be critical tests of market leadership and the durability of the AI theme.³ Investors will also be parsing the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest meeting for further clues on the likelihood of an August rate cut, a key driver of the Australian market’s recent rally.³⁵ Finally, the People’s Bank of China’s decision on its Loan Prime Rate (LPR) will be closely watched for signals on the future direction of policy support for the Chinese economy.⁹ The central tension between resilient economic data, the high bar for corporate earnings, and the evolving commentary from the world’s central banks will continue to shape the trajectory of global markets.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The information presented herein is based on public sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Financial markets are subject to rapid and unexpected changes, and past performance is not indicative of future results. All opinions and forecasts expressed are subject to change without notice. Readers should conduct their own research and due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The authors and publisher of this report accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this information.

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