Global Markets Weekly Review: The Convergence of Valuation Recalibration, Monetary Ambiguity, and Geopolitical Realignment (Week Ending November 21, 2025)

The Anatomy of a Market Pivot

The trading week ending November 21, 2025, will likely be recorded by financial historians as a pivotal inflection point in the post-pandemic economic narrative. It was a week where the tectonic plates of global finance shifted, driven by a convergence of three distinct but interlinked super-cycles: the maturity of the artificial intelligence (AI) investment thesis, the recalibration of the Federal Reserve’s monetary trajectory following a period of fiscal paralysis, and a radical restructuring of the geopolitical order under a resurgent U.S. foreign policy doctrine.

Global equity markets, having ridden a wave of liquidity and technological optimism for much of the year, faced a rigorous stress test. The “Triple Whammy”—a reassessment of tech valuations, a confused macroeconomic data picture post-shutdown, and the sudden emergence of transactional diplomacy in Ukraine and the Middle East—forced a violent repricing of risk assets. While headline indices in the United States managed a deceptive relief rally on Friday, masking deep structural damage beneath the surface, the broader global picture was one of retrenchment. From the semiconductor fabrication plants of South Korea to the trading floors of Frankfurt and the mining pits of Western Australia, the dominant theme was the withdrawal of liquidity from high-beta assets and a flight to cash, despite the paradoxical weakness in traditional safe havens like gold and government bonds.

This report offers an exhaustive, forensic analysis of these dynamics. It dissects the causal relationships between the delayed U.S. labour data and the sudden dovish pivot by Federal Reserve officials; it explores the ripple effects of the new U.S.-brokered peace initiatives on the global defence and energy sectors; and it examines the idiosyncratic risks emerging in markets like India and Japan. By synthesising data from across the G7 and emerging markets, this document aims to provide a holistic view of a week that redefined the risk parameters for the remainder of 2025.

The United States – The Epicentre of Valuation Anxiety

The United States equity markets served as the fulcrum for global sentiment this week. The narrative was dominated by a clash between the relentless optimism of the AI structural growth story and the harsh realities of macroeconomic constraints. The week was characterised by extreme intraday volatility, sector rotation, and a frantic attempt to price in a backlog of economic data released after the 43-day government shutdown.

The Deconstruction of the “AI Trade”

For the past 18 months, the “Mag 7” and specifically Nvidia (NVDA) have acted as the singular engine of U.S. equity performance. The week ending November 21, 2025, marked a critical psychological break in this trend. The market’s reaction to Nvidia’s earnings provided a textbook example of “priced for perfection.”

The Nvidia Paradox

On Wednesday post-market, Nvidia released its fiscal 2026 third-quarter results. By every objective financial metric, the report was stellar. The company posted “blockbuster” third-quarter results and issued revenue guidance for the current quarter that exceeded the consensus of Wall Street analysts.¹ CEO Jensen Huang reinforced the bullish narrative, stating that sales of the Blackwell AI platform were “off the charts,” suggesting that the infrastructure build-out for generative AI remains in its early, exponential phase.²

However, the market response was sharply negative. Nvidia shares, which had risen roughly 5% in the session leading up to the release, reversed course to close down 3.2% on Thursday.¹ This decline was not driven by fundamentals, but by sentiment and positioning. The “whisper numbers”—the unofficial, hyper-bullish expectations circulated on trading desks—had spiralled so high that even a substantial beat was interpreted as a disappointment. This phenomenon suggests that the AI trade has entered a mature, “show me” phase where multiple expansion is no longer guaranteed by revenue growth alone.

The contagion was immediate. The sell-off in Nvidia triggered a broader liquidation in the semiconductor and software sectors. The Nasdaq Composite, heavily weighted toward these industries, sank 2.2% on Thursday and ended the week down 2.5%, the deepest decline among major benchmarks.¹

Broader Tech Fallout vs. “Old Economy” Resilience

The ripple effects of the Nvidia reversal exposed the fragility of high-beta assets. Crypto-tied stocks, which often trade as a leveraged proxy for tech sentiment, were decimated. Robinhood Markets (HOOD) sank approximately 10%, and Coinbase Global (COIN) fell 7% amidst a broader risk-off mood that also saw Bitcoin plummet to an intra-week low of $80,600.¹

Conversely, we witnessed a nascent rotation into value and cyclical stocks, suggesting that capital was not leaving the market entirely but merely reshuffling.

• Retail Resilience: Amidst the tech carnage, traditional retailers posted strong gains. Gap Inc. surged 5.6% in pre-market trading on Friday after raising its sales outlook, driven by growth across its three main brands.³ similarly, Ross Stores rose nearly 3% in off-hours trading following stronger-than-expected results, and Intuit gained 3.5% on AI demand from mid-sized businesses.⁴
• The Implication: This divergence indicates that while investors are trimming exposure to lofty tech valuations, they remain confident in the U.S. consumer’s resilience. The “AI Bubble” fears are specific to valuation multiples in the tech sector rather than a vote of no confidence in the broader economy.

The Macroeconomic Data Dump: A Post-Shutdown Reckoning

The economic narrative was complicated by the release of a massive backlog of data delayed by the 43-day government shutdown. This “data dump” forced analysts to update their models in real-time, leading to wild swings in Treasury yields and Fed expectations.

Labour Market Ambiguity

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the delayed September jobs report, which offered a highly contradictory picture of the labour market.

• Payroll Growth: The U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs in September, more than double the consensus expectation of 50,000.² This figure suggests that demand for labour remains robust despite high interest rates.
• Unemployment Spike: Paradoxically, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4% from 4.3%, the highest level since October 2021.²
• Wage Pressures: Wage growth came in at 3.8%, slightly above expectations.⁵

This mixed report—strong hiring coupled with rising unemployment—created a “Rorschach test” for the Federal Reserve. Bulls pointed to the unemployment tick-up as evidence of a labour market cooling that justifies rate cuts. Bears pointed to the payroll beat and wage growth as evidence of sticky inflation that demands “higher for longer” rates.

The Federal Reserve’s Dovish Pivot

The most dramatic turn of the week occurred in the bond market’s pricing of Federal Reserve policy. Early in the week, the strong payroll data caused the probability of a December rate cut to collapse to under 40%.¹ The 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.10%, acting as a cap on equity valuations.

However, the narrative flipped on Friday due to prepared remarks from New York Fed President John Williams. Speaking at a conference in Chile, Williams explicitly signalled openness to further easing, stating he could support an additional rate cut “in the near term” and that there was “room for further adjustment” in borrowing costs.¹

This intervention was decisive. The CME FedWatch tool showed a violent repricing, with the likelihood of a December cut jumping to roughly 70% by Friday afternoon.¹ This dovish signal was the primary catalyst for the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 500-point rally on Friday, allowing the index to claw back some of its weekly losses.¹

Weekly Performance Summary (United States)

Despite the Friday rally, the damage inflicted earlier in the week resulted in net losses across all major indices.

Source: ¹

Europe – The Stagflationary Trap and Defence Sector Repricing

European markets found themselves in a precarious position, squeezed between deteriorating domestic economic fundamentals and the external shock of U.S. geopolitical maneuvers. The region’s indices underperformed significantly, reflecting a loss of confidence in the Eurozone’s industrial core.

The Industrial Malaise: Germany in the Crosshairs

The German DAX index was the epicentre of European weakness, shedding roughly 3.3% for the week.⁸ This underperformance is symptomatic of a deeper structural crisis in the German economic model, which relies heavily on manufacturing exports and cheap energy—both of which are currently under threat.

Manufacturing Contraction

Flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data released on Friday confirmed that Germany’s manufacturing sector remains in contraction.⁸ The data indicated a continued slowdown in services growth as well, painting a picture of an economy skirting the edge of recession. This weakness was compounded by renewed concerns over Chinese demand, a critical export market for German automakers and industrial machinery.

Corporate Casualties

The stress in the industrial sector was visible in single-stock movements:

• Siemens Energy: The stock plummeted over 10% on Friday due to profit-taking after hitting record highs, but also reflecting broader sector anxiety.⁸
• Renk Group: Slipped 7.8%, caught in the defence sector downdraft.⁹
• Infineon Technologies: The chipmaker fell 3.7% ⁸, tracking the global semiconductor sell-off initiated by Nvidia.

The Geopolitical Shock: The “Trump Peace Plan” and Defence Stocks

One of the most significant, yet under-discussed, drivers of European market action this week was the emergence of a U.S.-brokered peace plan for Ukraine. Reports surfaced that U.S. and Russian officials had drafted a 28-point peace plan that would potentially require Ukraine to cede territory and limit the size of its military.¹⁰

While a potential cessation of hostilities is a humanitarian positive, the market implications were severe for the defence sector, which has been a rare bright spot in European equities since 2022. Investors immediately moved to price in a “peace dividend”—a reduction in European military spending.

• Rheinmetall: The German defence giant lost over 7% on Friday.⁸
• BAE Systems: The UK-based defence contractor also saw significant selling pressure.¹¹

This reaction highlights the market’s cynical dependency on geopolitical conflict for sectoral growth. A resolution to the war, while stabilising for energy prices, removes a key growth catalyst for Europe’s industrial base.

The UK Market: Fiscal Drag and Resource Weakness

The FTSE 100 in the UK fell 1.6% for the week.¹² The index was weighed down by its heavy exposure to the energy and mining sectors, both of which suffered from global commodity price declines (discussed in Section 6).

• Fiscal Concerns: Domestic sentiment was dampened by data showing government borrowing overshot expectations in October, complicating Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ upcoming budget decisions.¹³
• Stock Specifics: Melrose Industries, JD Sports Fashion, and Rolls-Royce were among the biggest losers, dropping between 3% and 6.1%.¹¹ Rolls-Royce, in particular, suffered from the dual impact of defence sector weakness and broader industrial concerns.

France (CAC 40): Luxury Exposure

France’s CAC 40 index closed down 2.25% over the past month, with weekly losses driven by the luxury sector.¹⁴ The “Trump Trade 2.0” narrative (discussed in Section 3), which involves potential tariffs on China, poses a direct threat to French luxury houses like LVMH and Kering, which derive a substantial portion of their revenue from Chinese consumers. The correlation between Chinese economic sentiment and the CAC 40 remains a dominant driver of French equity performance.

Asia-Pacific – The Frontline of Trade War 2.0

Asian markets experienced a brutal week of selling, caught in the crossfire of U.S. trade policy and the global tech rout. The region is grappling with the re-emergence of protectionism under the Trump administration, which is reshaping supply chains and dampening growth expectations.

The “Trump Tariff” Volatility

The geopolitical centrepiece for Asia was the oscillation in U.S.-China trade relations. Earlier in the month, markets had priced in extreme downside scenarios following President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs as high as 104% on Chinese goods.¹⁵ This “maximum pressure” campaign initially sent Chinese equities into a tailspin.

However, the week ended with a significant pivot. Following a meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, reports confirmed a tentative agreement to de-escalate.¹⁶ The deal involves:

• Tariff Reductions: The U.S. agreed to lower certain tariffs on Chinese imports.
• Rare Earths: China agreed to suspend export restrictions on rare earth minerals, a critical component for U.S. technology and defence industries.¹⁶
• Port Fees: A pause on punitive port fees was also agreed upon.

Despite this apparent diplomatic breakthrough, the market reaction was “sell the news.” The Shanghai Composite Index dipped 2.5% on Friday, capping a massive 3.9% weekly loss—the worst since late 2024.¹⁷ Investors remain skeptical about the durability of the deal and are concerned that the underlying strategic competition remains unresolved. The uncertainty regarding implementation details kept risk premiums high.

Japan: Stimulus vs. Inflation

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 2.4% on Friday, contributing to a steep weekly decline.¹³ The Japanese market is currently fighting a war on two fronts: currency volatility and domestic stagnation.

• Stimulus Package: In a bid to revive an economy that contracted at a 1.8% annual pace in Q3 ¹⁸, the Japanese government approved a massive 21.3 trillion yen ($135 billion) stimulus package.¹⁹ Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is betting that this injection of liquidity will offset the drag from slowing global trade.
• The Inflation Problem: However, the stimulus comes at a cost. Data released Friday showed annual inflation rising to 3.0% in October.¹⁹ This complicates the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) ability to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy. The prospect of rising JGB yields is weighing on equity valuations.
• Export Headwinds: Japan reported a drop in exports to the U.S., attributed directly to the anticipation and implementation of higher tariffs under the Trump administration.¹⁹

The Semiconductor Bloodbath: South Korea and Taiwan

The global sell-off in AI and semiconductor stocks had a devastating impact on the Asian supply chain.

• South Korea (KOSPI): The index tumbled 3.8% on Friday, heavily dragged down by its tech heavyweights.¹⁹ Samsung Electronics sank 5.6%, and SK Hynix plunged 8.6%.¹⁹ As key suppliers of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) to Nvidia, these companies are highly sensitive to any perceived slowdown in AI infrastructure spending. The magnitude of the drop suggests that investors are fearing a potential inventory correction in 2026.
• Hong Kong (Hang Seng): The Hang Seng Index slid 2.4% to a five-week low, breaking through the floor of its rising trend channel.¹⁷ Technical analysts warn that a “head and shoulders” pattern is developing, signalling further downside risks.

India – Divergence and Domestic Stress

The Indian equity market, represented by the Sensex and Nifty 50, offered a complex picture of relative resilience masked by specific corporate stresses. While the headline indices outperformed their global peers for much of the week, cracks emerged in key sectors.

Weekly Performance vs. Friday Correction

While global markets bled red ink, Indian indices managed to post a net gain for the week. The BSE Sensex rose approximately 0.8% over the five sessions, and the Nifty 50 gained 0.6%.²¹ This resilience was driven by domestic institutional flows (DIIs), who bought ₹824 crore worth of equities on Thursday alone, absorbing the selling pressure from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs).²²

However, the week ended on a sombre note. On Friday, the Sensex fell 400 points (0.47%) and the Nifty slipped 124 points to close below the psychological 26,100 level.²³ The sell-off was triggered by weak global cues but exacerbated by specific domestic news flow.

The Adani/Reliance Nexus and Energy Shifts

A major driver of negative sentiment was news surrounding India’s largest conglomerates.

• Reliance Industries: The company announced it would halt imports of Russian crude oil into its Jamnagar refinery.²³ This is a significant strategic pivot, likely in response to tightening secondary sanctions from the U.S. or a realignment of India’s energy security strategy. The move weighed on energy sentiment and raised questions about future refining margins.
• Reliance Group (Anil Ambani): In a separate development, the Enforcement Directorate (ED) provisionally attached assets worth ₹1,452 crore linked to Anil Ambani’s Reliance Group in a money-laundering probe.²³ While distinct from Mukesh Ambani’s empire, the news added a layer of regulatory noise to the market.

Sectoral Performance

• Metals: The Nifty Metal index was the worst performer, dropping 2.34% on Friday.²³ This tracked the global decline in commodity prices. Tata Steel was among the top losers.
• FMCG: In a classic defensive rotation, the Nifty FMCG index was the only sectoral index to end in the green.²³ Stocks like Maruti Suzuki and ITC attracted capital as investors sought safety in domestic consumption themes.

Oceania – The Commodity Super-Cycle Correction

The markets in Australia and New Zealand bore the brunt of the global commodity correction. As resource-dependent economies, their indices are highly correlated with the price of iron ore, oil, and gold—all of which faced significant headwinds this week.

Australia (ASX 200): A Month of Pain

The S&P/ASX 200 index experienced a dismal week, falling 2.5% to close at 8,417 points.²⁴ This marked the fourth consecutive week of losses, the longest losing streak since March 2025.²⁵

The Mining Rout

The Materials sub-index tanked over 4% for the week.²⁴

• Iluka Resources: Plunged 11.55%.²⁶
• BHP & Rio Tinto: The mining giants fell 3.1% and 2.6% respectively on Friday.27
  The driver was a collapse in iron ore and copper prices, fueled by fears that the Chinese stimulus measures (discussed in Section 3) would be insufficient to offset the drag from U.S. tariffs.

Broad-Based Weakness

The selling was not confined to miners.

• Energy: Santos shares collapsed 11.7% ²⁶, tracking the oil price crash.
• Retail/Consumer: Lovisa Holdings plunged 13.79% ²⁶, indicating that the consumer discretionary sector is feeling the pinch of sustained high interest rates.
• Banks: The “Big Four” banks fell roughly 1.3% ²⁷, removing a key pillar of support for the index.

New Zealand (NZX 50): Central Bank Watch

New Zealand’s NZX 50 index fell 0.5% for the week, closing at 13,419 points.²⁸ The market is currently in a holding pattern, awaiting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

• Rate Cut Expectations: The RBNZ is widely expected to cut its key cash rate to 2.25% in the coming week.²⁷ This anticipation provided a floor for the market, preventing the kind of deep sell-off seen in Australia.
• Stock Specifics: Turners Automotive was a standout gainer, rising 3% for the week, continuing a strong yearly run.²⁹ This suggests that stock selection remains critical in a flat market environment.

Geopolitics and Commodities – The “Trump Peace” Paradox

The most counter-intuitive market dynamic of the week occurred in the commodities complex. Typically, geopolitical instability drives investors toward safe-haven assets like gold and oil. However, the week of November 21, 2025, saw prices for both assets crumble, driven by the unique nature of the “Trump Peace Plans.”

The “Board of Peace” and the Gaza Plan

The geopolitical landscape was reshaped by the UN Security Council’s passing of a resolution to implement the “Trump Peace Plan” for Gaza. The plan is radical in its structure:

• The Mechanism: It establishes a “Board of Peace” chaired directly by Donald Trump, which will oversee a multinational peacekeeping force and a committee of Palestinian technocrats.³⁰
• Market Implication: While the political viability of such a plan is debated, markets interpreted it as a signal of impending de-escalation in the Middle East. The removal of the “war risk premium” was immediate and severe.

Crude Oil: The Supply Glut Fear

WTI Crude oil prices collapsed to a one-month low of approximately $58 per barrel.¹

• The Peace Dividend: The progress on peace deals in both Gaza and Ukraine ³¹ suggested to traders that supply disruptions would ease. Specifically, a deal in Ukraine could lead to the normalisation of Russian oil exports, flooding a market already grappling with soft demand.
• Sanctions Enforcement: Paradoxically, while peace talks progressed, the U.S. tightened sanctions on Russian oil exports, targeting majors like Rosneft and Lukoil.³¹ However, the market focused more on the long-term potential for supply normalisation rather than short-term restrictions.

Gold: The Failure of the Safe Haven

Gold prices dropped to around $4,040 per ounce, posting a weekly loss.⁵

• The Dollar Headwind: Gold is priced in dollars. As the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) held firm around 100.18 and Treasury yields remained elevated (until Friday), the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold increased.¹
• Risk-Off vs. Safe Haven: While equities sold off (risk-off), gold did not benefit. This suggests that the equity sell-off was driven by valuation concerns (which don’t help gold) rather than systemic fears (which usually do). Furthermore, the “peace plans” reduced the geopolitical hedging demand for the metal.

Conclusion – The New Reality

The week ending November 21, 2025, was a crucible for global markets. It stripped away the complacent assumptions that had driven asset prices for much of the year.

1. The AI Trade is Mortal: Nvidia’s earnings reaction proved that even exponential growth has a price limit. The market has moved from “growth at any cost” to “growth at a reasonable price.”
2. The Fed is Not on Autopilot: The contradictory labour data and the subsequent flip-flopping of rate cut probabilities highlighted that the path to monetary easing will be volatile. The “Fed Put” exists, as evidenced by Williams’ comments, but it comes with higher strike prices.
3. Geopolitics is Transactional: The emerging “Trump Doctrine”—characterised by aggressive tariff threats followed by sudden deal-making (China) and unconventional peace frameworks (Gaza, Ukraine)—introduces a new variable: Policy Volatility. Markets must now price in the risk of sudden reversals in trade and foreign policy.

Outlook:

For the remainder of 2025, investors should expect heightened volatility. The divergence between the U.S. (driven by consumer resilience) and Europe/Asia (dragged down by industrial weakness) is likely to widen. Capital will likely continue to rotate out of hyper-growth tech into defensive value and domestic cyclicals until the Federal Reserve provides definitive clarity on the rate path. The era of the “everything rally” appears to be over; the era of stock picking and macro-awareness has begun.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. The information contained herein is based on data available as of November 21, 2025, and is subject to change without notice. Financial markets are volatile and past performance is not indicative of future results. The author and publisher are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for the results obtained from the use of this information. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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