Global Markets Weekly Review: Powell’s Dovish Signal at Jackson Hole Reshapes a Tense Week

The week ending August 22, 2025, will be remembered as a period of sharp reversal, where a pervasive risk-off sentiment, driven by concerns over technology stock valuations and persistent inflation, was dramatically upended by a single, pivotal speech. Global markets began the week on a cautious footing, with major U.S. indices logging multi-day losing streaks and investors questioning the sustainability of the artificial intelligence-led rally. This anxiety was compounded by troubling economic data, including a confirmed economic contraction in Germany and stubbornly high inflation prints from the United Kingdom and Japan, which signalled divergent and challenging paths for their respective central banks.

However, the entire complexion of the week changed on Friday. In a highly anticipated address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered remarks that were interpreted by markets as a significant dovish pivot. By emphasising growing risks to the labour market, Powell signalled a potential shift in the Fed’s priorities, opening the door for interest rate cuts as early as September. The reaction was immediate and powerful, igniting a fierce rally across equities, bonds, and commodities, while sending the U.S. dollar tumbling. This singular macroeconomic signal from the world’s most influential central bank overwhelmed most regional narratives, turning weekly losses into gains for many indices and pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its first record high of the year.

Despite the force of this global tailwind, the week also highlighted critical areas of divergence. Local factors retained significant influence, with Germany’s market performance remaining flat under the weight of its recessionary economy and Japan’s market slumping on fears of a hawkish central bank. In Australia, a volatile corporate earnings season dictated market direction, while India’s strong domestic-led rally demonstrated a growing resilience to global crosscurrents. The week thus served as a stark reminder of the immense power of central bank guidance in shaping asset prices, while also revealing the complex and increasingly fragmented landscape of the global economy.

The Global Narrative: All Eyes on Jackson Hole

The week’s market activity was unequivocally framed by the anticipation and eventual reaction to the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, a key forum for central bankers.¹ Markets entered the week in a state of heightened caution, with investors grappling with a series of conflicting economic signals that clouded the path forward for monetary policy. On one hand, signs of slowing growth were becoming more apparent, exemplified by a confirmed economic contraction in Germany.³ On the other, inflation remained stubbornly persistent in key economies like the United Kingdom and Japan, where July data showed price pressures continuing to exceed central bank targets.⁵ This backdrop created significant uncertainty about whether the Federal Reserve would maintain its restrictive stance or signal a pivot toward easing.

Powell’s Pivotal Speech

The ambiguity was decisively resolved on Friday, August 22, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s keynote address.⁷ His remarks were immediately seized upon by investors as a significant dovish signal. The critical catalyst was his explicit mention of “growing risks to the labour market,” which he suggested had gained priority since the last policy meeting.⁴ This commentary was interpreted as a clear shift in the Fed’s focus, moving away from its singular battle against inflation toward a more balanced, dual-mandate approach that gives greater weight to employment. This rhetorical pivot was given a formal underpinning by the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) simultaneous approval of updates to its “Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy,” which serves as the foundation for its policy actions.⁹

An Immediate and Powerful Market Reaction

The market’s response to Powell’s perceived dovishness was swift and powerful, rippling across all asset classes and geographies.

• Equities: A surge in risk appetite triggered a massive global stock market rally. Wall Street saw its best day in months, and European and some Asian indices followed suit, as the prospect of lower borrowing costs reinvigorated investor confidence.³
• Bonds: The bond market reacted decisively, with investors aggressively pricing in a higher probability of a near-term rate cut. Yields on U.S. Treasury securities tumbled. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.33% to 4.25%, while the 2-year yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy expectations, slid sharply from 3.79% to 3.69%.³ According to CME Group data, the implied probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting jumped from 75% to over 90%.³
• Currencies: The prospect of lower U.S. interest rates diminished the appeal of the greenback. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of its peers, declined by 0.9% to trade near its lowest level in a month.⁷
• Commodities: The combination of a weaker dollar and lower bond yields provided a strong tailwind for commodities. Gold futures rose 1.1% to settle at $3,415 per ounce, as lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding precious metal.⁷ U.S. crude oil benchmarks also advanced, gaining ground for the third consecutive day.⁷

The explosive market reaction reveals a deep-seated reliance on central bank policy as the primary driver of asset prices. Before Friday, markets were contending with tangible, fundamental concerns: a report questioning the profitability of AI investments, confirmation of a recession in Europe’s largest economy, and persistent inflation in several developed nations.⁴ These are substantive issues that directly impact corporate earnings and economic growth, and they had pushed major indices into a multi-day losing streak.⁷ Powell’s speech did not resolve any of these underlying problems; it simply altered the future outlook for the cost of money. The market’s decision to immediately discard these fundamental concerns in favour of a macro liquidity signal suggests that the rally was built not on an improvement in economic or corporate health, but on the expectation of cheaper capital. This dynamic indicates a potential market fragility, making asset prices highly sensitive and vulnerable to any future central bank communication that walks back this dovish stance.

U.S. Markets: A Volatile Week Ends with a Record High

For Wall Street, the week was a tale of two distinct halves, culminating in a dramatic reversal that saw major indices erase steep losses to end on a high note. The week began with a prolonged bout of selling pressure, as the S&P 500 fell for five consecutive sessions, its longest losing streak since January.⁷ The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite was on a trajectory for its worst weekly performance since May, reflecting a significant souring of investor sentiment.⁷

Early-Week Tech Weakness

The downturn was led by a pronounced sell-off in the technology sector, which has been the primary engine of the market’s gains for much of the year. A key catalyst for the weakness was a Financial Times report that highlighted an MIT study concluding that “95 per cent of organisations is getting zero return” from their investments in generative artificial intelligence.⁵ This report struck at the heart of the investment thesis that has propelled AI-related stocks to historic valuations, sparking immediate concerns about profitability and sustainability. The reaction was swift, with shares of AI leader NVIDIA falling as much as 3.5% on Tuesday, its largest drop since April. Other prominent tech names, including Palantir and Arm, also experienced significant declines.⁵ The sell-off reflected broader anxiety among investors that valuations for the so-called “Magnificent 7” stocks had become stretched, making them vulnerable to any negative news flow.⁵

The Friday Surge

The narrative reversed completely on Friday following Chair Powell’s dovish remarks at Jackson Hole. The ensuing rally was both broad and powerful, with rate-sensitive and high-growth stocks leading the charge.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) soared by approximately 850 points, or 1.9%, to close at 45,631.74. This marked a new record closing high for the blue-chip index, its first since December 2024. The strong finish was enough to push the Dow to a weekly gain of 1.5%.⁷
• The S&P 500 (SPX) leaped 1.5% on Friday, snapping its five-day losing streak. The benchmark index closed at 6,466.91, just 0.03% below its all-time high set the previous week. Thanks to the powerful Friday session, it managed to secure a weekly gain of 0.3%.⁷
• The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) also surged on Friday, adding 1.9%. However, the severity of the losses it sustained earlier in the week was too great to overcome, and the index finished the week with a loss of 0.6%.⁷

Sector and Stock Movers

The market’s reaction to the prospect of lower interest rates was clearly visible in the performance of specific sectors and stocks.

• Rate-Sensitive Winners: Companies that are more reliant on borrowing to finance their growth were among the day’s biggest winners. Small-cap stocks surged, with the Russell 2000 index jumping 3.8% for its best day since April.³ The housing sector rallied on hopes of lower mortgage rates, with homebuilders like Lennar, PulteGroup, and D.R. Horton all advancing nearly 5%.³ Travel and leisure companies, including Norwegian Cruise Line, Carnival, and Delta Air Lines, also soared on expectations that lower borrowing costs would spur greater consumer discretionary spending.³
• Tech Rebound: The technology giants that had led the market lower earlier in the week staged a powerful rebound. Shares of Tesla jumped more than 6%, while Alphabet and Amazon both added 3%.⁷ The semiconductor sector also recovered strongly, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index rising nearly 3%.⁷
• Risk-On Assets: The return of investor risk appetite was evident in the cryptocurrency market. The price of Bitcoin surged toward $117,000, lifting crypto-related stocks such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy by more than 6%.⁷
• Earnings-Driven Losers: The rally was not universal, as company-specific news still held sway for some. Shares of Intuit, the maker of TurboTax, tumbled 5% after the company issued a disappointing financial outlook. Similarly, human resources software provider Workday fell nearly 3% following its earnings report, demonstrating that weak corporate fundamentals could still override the positive macroeconomic tide.⁷

While the Dow and S&P 500’s ability to finish the week in positive territory was a testament to the power of the Fed’s influence, the Nasdaq’s weekly loss is a significant signal. The Nasdaq is heavily weighted toward high-growth technology stocks whose valuations are theoretically the most sensitive to changes in interest rates. The fact that this index, which should have benefited most from the prospect of lower rates, still ended the week in the red indicates that the selling pressure earlier in the week was exceptionally strong. That selling was triggered by a fundamental concern—the questionable return on AI investment—that strikes at the core of the sector’s valuation thesis. The performance divergence between the broader market and the tech-heavy Nasdaq is therefore not an anomaly; it is a clear indication that while the market as a whole celebrated the Fed’s dovish tone, the most speculative and highly-valued corner of the market is still grappling with a significant shock to its fundamental narrative.

European Markets: Navigating Mixed Signals

In Europe, the wave of optimism emanating from the United States was filtered through the prism of local economic realities, resulting in a week of divergent performance across the continent’s major bourses. While the pan-European STOXX 600 index rose for a third consecutive week, gaining a solid 1.4% to close at 561.30, and the Euro STOXX 50 also advanced, this headline strength masked significant underlying differences between national markets.¹⁰

United Kingdom: A Breakout Performance

The UK’s FTSE 100 index was a standout global performer, climbing 2.0% over the week to close at a new record high of 9,321.40.¹⁵ The London market’s strength was partially attributable to the global dovish sentiment, but it was also underpinned by robust domestic data. The GfK Consumer Confidence Index for August rose to its highest level in a year, a move supported by the Bank of England’s recent interest rate cut, which suggested that household finances were improving.¹⁶ This positive domestic backdrop helped the FTSE 100 post three successive record closes to end the week.¹¹

However, the outlook was not without its challenges. Inflation data for July came in hotter than anticipated, with the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 3.8% year-on-year.⁵ More concerning for policymakers was the stickiness of core inflation, which also printed at 3.8%. This persistent price pressure suggests that the Bank of England may have very little room for further monetary easing, creating a potential headwind for the market going forward.⁵

Germany: Weighed Down by a Shrinking Economy

In stark contrast to the UK’s ebullience, Germany’s benchmark DAX index ended the week almost perfectly flat, inching up by a mere 0.02% to close at 24,363.09.¹⁷ While the index did experience a modest lift on Friday in line with the global rally, this was insufficient to overcome the deep-seated pessimism stemming from deteriorating domestic economic conditions.⁴

The primary weight on the German market was the release of revised data confirming that its economy shrank by 0.3% in the second quarter of 2025. This represented a steeper contraction than the initial estimate of a 0.1% decline and marked the economy’s biggest quarterly drop since the second quarter of 2024.⁴ The downturn was broad-based, driven by a 1.4% drop in fixed capital investment and a 0.1% fall in exports, with output declining across key sectors including manufacturing, construction, and transport.¹⁸ The data solidified Germany’s position as a significant drag on the wider Eurozone economy and kept a firm lid on investor sentiment.

The starkly different weekly outcomes for the FTSE 100 (+2.0%) and the DAX (flat) provide a clear, real-time barometer of the diverging economic fortunes within Europe. Both markets were exposed to the same positive global catalyst on Friday, yet their paths diverged based on local conditions. The UK market’s outperformance was supported by a resilient consumer, as evidenced by rising confidence, suggesting a degree of domestic economic insulation. The German market’s inability to rally, meanwhile, is directly linked to its weak, manufacturing-led recessionary environment. This performance gap signals a structural split between Europe’s two largest economies. It suggests that investors are increasingly pricing in these different trajectories and that “Europe” can no longer be viewed as a monolithic investment bloc.

Asian Markets: A Story of Divergence

Across Asia, market performance was highly varied, with local factors—particularly domestic monetary policy outlooks and economic fundamentals—often proving more influential than the generalised optimism that swept through Western markets on Friday. The region presented a fractured picture, from a roaring, policy-driven rally in China to an inflation-induced slump in Japan.

China: A Roaring Rally to a Decade High

Mainland Chinese markets were the week’s undisputed global leaders, staging a powerful rally that defied broader global caution. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index surged by an impressive 3.5%, marking its largest weekly gain since November 2024. The index closed at 3,825.76, its highest level in a decade.¹⁹

This stellar performance was driven by a confluence of powerful domestic factors. Strong government policy support aimed at stabilising capital markets has bolstered investor confidence, which is also being underpinned by the resilience of the Chinese economy, which grew by 5.3% in the first half of the year.²⁰ The rally was particularly pronounced in the technology and artificial intelligence sectors. A report from JPMorgan suggesting the rally in onshore stocks has further to run added to the positive sentiment. Furthermore, speculation that U.S. chipmaker Nvidia might suspend production of a specific AI chip in China, potentially creating an opportunity for domestic firms, fueled a speculative frenzy. Shares of Chinese chipmaker SMIC, for example, jumped more than 10% on the news.⁶

Hong Kong: Riding Mainland China’s Coattails

The positive sentiment from the mainland spilled over into Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng Index finished the week with a gain of 0.3%.²¹ The market’s performance was directly supported by what was described as a “flood of mainland money,” as capital flowed south from the mainland to participate in the rally.⁶ The outperformance of specific China-focused consumer stocks, such as the pop toy maker Pop Mart, which has seen its share price rise by more than 250% year-to-date, also contributed significantly to the Hang Seng’s gains.⁵

Japan: Inflation Fears Spoil the Party

In a complete reversal of the trend seen in China, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index slumped, falling 1.7% for the week in its largest weekly decline since April.²² The dovish signal from the U.S. Federal Reserve was rendered irrelevant by pressing domestic concerns.

The primary driver of the sell-off was the release of hotter-than-expected inflation data. Japan’s core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July printed at 3.1%, remaining stubbornly above the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2% target.⁵ This persistent inflation has intensified market expectations that the BoJ will soon be forced to abandon its decades-long ultra-loose monetary policy and begin raising interest rates. The prospect of a hawkish BoJ, creating a significant policy divergence with a now-dovish Fed, weighed heavily on Japanese equity valuations and sent the Nikkei sharply lower.⁶

The opposing trajectories of the Chinese and Japanese markets represent more than just a weekly fluctuation; they are clear evidence of a major policy and economic decoupling occurring in Asia. China’s market is being propelled higher by deliberate government stimulus and policy support. Japan’s market, conversely, is being pressured lower by the consequences of past policy success—the return of inflation—which is now forcing its central bank to consider tightening. This is creating two distinct and potentially opposing investment narratives in the region. For years, a “risk-on” mood in the West often lifted all Asian markets in tandem. This week proved that is no longer a reliable assumption, as a dovish signal from the Fed was completely overshadowed in Tokyo by the looming prospect of a hawkish Bank of Japan.

India: A Six-Day Rally Hits a Wall

The Indian stock market followed a unique trajectory during the week, characterised by a sustained and powerful rally driven by domestic optimism, which was abruptly halted by a sharp bout of profit-taking on the final day of trading. This pattern highlighted both the market’s growing internal strength and its continued sensitivity to global risk sentiment.

The Sustained Rally

For six consecutive trading sessions, from the previous Friday through to Thursday, August 21, Indian equity benchmarks climbed steadily, bucking the cautious trend seen in many other global markets earlier in the week. During this impressive run, the BSE Sensex gained 1,765 points (a 2.14% rise), while the Nifty 50 rallied 596 points (a 2.4% increase).²³

This strong performance was fueled by a robust domestic narrative. Analysts pointed to positive catalysts including ongoing government policy initiatives, expectations of a boost in consumption, and encouragingly low retail inflation, which printed at just 1.55% in July.²⁴ This benign inflation reading raised investor hopes for another potential interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), further improving sentiment. The market’s resilience was particularly noteworthy as it occurred while U.S. markets were experiencing a multi-day losing streak, suggesting a degree of decoupling based on local fundamentals.²⁴

The Friday Plunge

The six-day winning streak came to a dramatic end on Friday, as global caution ahead of Chair Powell’s speech prompted investors to lock in recent gains. The BSE Sensex tumbled 694 points, or 0.85%, to settle at 81,306.85, while the Nifty 50 dropped 214 points, or 0.85%, to close at 24,870.10.²³ The sell-off was broad, but it was exacerbated by intense selling in market heavyweights such as HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries, which have a significant influence on the indices.²³ Lingering concerns about the approaching deadline for potential U.S. tariffs on Indian goods also contributed to the cautious mood.²⁵

Weekly Outcome

Despite the sharp decline on Friday, the strength of the rally earlier in the week was sufficient to ensure the indices closed with respectable gains. The BSE Sensex finished the week up 0.9%, marking its second consecutive week of gains.²⁷ The

Nifty 50 also secured a weekly gain of approximately 1.0%.²⁵

The Indian market’s ability to rally strongly for most of the week, even as U.S. markets were declining, demonstrates a growing self-reliance based on strong domestic fundamentals. The drivers cited for the six-day rally were almost entirely local in nature: low inflation, the possibility of an RBI rate cut, and optimism about government reforms.²⁴ This indicates that the market was trading on its own distinct story. The subsequent sell-off on Friday appeared to be more of a technical correction—prudent profit-taking ahead of a major global event—rather than a fundamental reversal of the bullish domestic outlook. The fact that the indices comfortably absorbed a nearly 1% drop and still closed the week with solid gains reinforces the underlying strength of the domestic narrative. This suggests that while the Indian market remains susceptible to global risk-off events, its primary trend is increasingly being set by a powerful local growth and policy story.

Oceania: Australia’s Earnings-Driven Rollercoaster

In Australia, the week’s market performance was dictated almost entirely by the local corporate earnings season, with global macroeconomic events playing a secondary role. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index experienced a highly volatile week of trading, surging to a new all-time high above the 9,000-point milestone on Thursday before pulling back on Friday. It ultimately finished the week with a modest gain of 0.3%, closing at 8,967.40.⁵

A Week of Wild Swings

The index’s movement was characterised by dramatic swings driven by company-specific news, as investors reacted forcefully to the latest batch of corporate results.

• The CSL Plunge: The week’s volatility was kick-started on Tuesday by a record 16.9% one-day plunge in the shares of biotech giant CSL. The sell-off, which followed the release of what were described as “terrible results,” wiped more than $20 billion off the company’s market capitalisation and dragged the entire ASX 200 to its steepest fall in weeks.²⁹ The negative sentiment surrounding CSL, a heavyweight component of the index, continued to be a drag on the market throughout the week.²⁹
• The Zip Co. Rally: In a starkly contrasting development, shares of Buy-Now-Pay-Later firm Zip Co. soared by more than 20% on Friday. The rally was triggered by the release of “bumper” full-year results that significantly beat analyst forecasts. This single stock’s powerful performance was enough to single-handedly pull the entire financials sector into positive territory for the day.⁶
• Other Earnings Disasters: The market was littered with other significant earnings-related disappointments. Food producer Inghams Group saw its shares plunge 20.3%, while fast-food chain Guzman y Gomez dropped 18.2% following their respective financial reports.⁶

Hitting a Record High

Despite the significant negative impact from CSL’s poor results, the broader market showed underlying strength. On Thursday, the ASX 200 surged past the 9,000-point level for the first time in its history. This record-setting rally was fueled by stronger-than-expected corporate results from a range of other companies, including Brambles and Transurban.⁵ The positive sentiment was also supported by growing optimism over potential further interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The RBA had already lowered its cash rate to 3.60% earlier in August, citing evidence that inflation was moderating, which has encouraged investors to anticipate a more accommodative policy stance going forward.³¹

The extreme volatility seen in the Australian market, driven by powerful and opposing reactions to individual corporate earnings reports, is a classic sign of a mature market cycle. In such an environment, broad macroeconomic trends—such as the direction of inflation and interest rates—are no longer sufficient to lift all stocks equally. With the RBA having already begun its easing cycle, the market’s primary focus has shifted from the macro tide to the strength of individual corporate ships. As a result, a company’s operational execution and financial performance become the paramount drivers of its stock price. The huge divergence between the fortunes of CSL and Zip Co. this week perfectly illustrates this dynamic. The market is no longer trading as a single, cohesive bloc but is instead ruthlessly rewarding operational success and punishing failure, creating a challenging environment for passive index investors and a fertile one for active stock-pickers.

Conclusion: A Week Redefined

The week ending August 22, 2025, was ultimately a testament to the enduring power of central bank communication in an uncertain global economy. A market narrative that began with fears of a tech-led correction and concerns over persistent inflation was completely rewritten in the final hours of trading by a single speech. The dovish pivot signalled by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell provided a powerful, short-term tailwind for global equities, turning a week of losses into one of gains for many and underscoring the market’s profound reliance on the prospect of monetary stimulus.

However, beneath the surface of the broad-based Friday rally, the week’s trading activity revealed critical and widening divergences in the global economic landscape. The contrasting fortunes of a buoyant United Kingdom and a recession-mired Germany highlighted a structural split within Europe. In Asia, a policy-fueled bull run in China stood in stark opposition to an inflation-haunted market in Japan, signalling a significant decoupling of the region’s two largest economies. Meanwhile, the domestic-led strength of the Indian market and the earnings-driven volatility in Australia demonstrated that local factors are increasingly asserting their influence over global trends.

Looking ahead, while the Federal Reserve has provided markets with significant short-term relief, the fundamental issues that dominated the early part of the week have not been resolved. Slowing global growth, unresolved trade and geopolitical tensions, and the still-unanswered questions surrounding the profitability and valuation of the technology sector will likely re-emerge as key drivers of market performance. The week was redefined by a change in policy tone, but the underlying economic reality remains complex and challenging.

Disclaimer

This report has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. The information and opinions contained herein are based on sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness, or correctness. The author and the publisher of this report are not liable for any losses that may be incurred by any person who acts upon the information and opinions contained in this report. All investment involves risk, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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