Global Markets Weekly Review: A Tale of Two Markets

A Week of Divergence as US Rallies and the World Waits

The week ending July 4, 2025, was defined by a stark divergence in global equity markets. United States stock markets, buoyed by a potent cocktail of strong domestic economic news and fresh fiscal stimulus, surged to new record highs, seemingly insulated from growing global headwinds. In sharp contrast, markets across Europe and much of Asia faltered, weighed down by a pervasive sense of anxiety over the impending July 9 deadline for US trade tariffs. Investor sentiment became a tale of two worlds: one of confidence in American economic resilience and another of deep-seated caution over the profound uncertainty of global trade policy.

The primary catalysts for market movements were almost entirely US-centric. A surprisingly robust June jobs report shattered economists’ expectations, providing powerful evidence of a resilient labour market. This was compounded by the passage of a significant tax-cut bill through Congress, which further boosted investor sentiment on Wall Street.¹ These domestic drivers were potent enough to overshadow, at least for the moment, the global risks emanating from the administration’s own trade policies. The strong economic data prompted a rapid repricing of Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, with the probability of a near-term rate cut evaporating almost overnight.³

While US investors celebrated the holiday-shortened week with record closes, their counterparts in Europe and Asia spent the week bracing for impact. The looming tariff deadline cast a long shadow, with President Donald Trump warning that unilateral levies could be imposed on trading partners if deals were not reached.⁴ This threat was the dominant driver of negative sentiment outside the US, leading to broad-based declines in major European and several key Asian indices.

The week ahead positions the market at a critical juncture. All eyes are fixed on the July 9 tariff deadline, an event that will likely set the tone for global markets for the foreseeable future. The central question is whether the US market’s remarkable resilience can withstand a potential escalation in trade tensions or if the anxiety that has gripped the rest of the world will finally arrive on Wall Street’s doorstep.

Table 1: Global Index Weekly Performance (Week Ending July 4, 2025)

The Global Backdrop: Tariffs, Data, and Policy Set the Tone

Three overarching macroeconomic themes dominated the global narrative this week, creating a complex and often contradictory environment for investors. The interplay between the looming threat of US tariffs, a mixed bag of American economic data, and significant policy developments in Washington set the stage for the week’s divergent market performance.

The Tariff Deadline Looms: A Shadow Over Global Trade

The most significant factor driving global market sentiment was the fast-approaching July 9 expiration of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs announced by the Trump administration.⁶ Throughout the week, anxiety mounted as the deadline drew closer with no clear resolutions in sight for key trading partners, particularly in Europe and Asia. This uncertainty was the primary catalyst for the risk-averse behaviour seen in markets outside the United States.⁴

The administration amplified these concerns, with President Trump warning that his administration was prepared to begin sending letters to trading partners to notify them of new unilateral tariff rates, with potential levies of up to 70%.⁵ This rhetoric raised the spectre of a renewed and intensified global trade war, prompting analysts at Mizuho Bank to warn clients that countries would have to “brace for volatility”.⁴ The fear extends beyond the direct economic cost of tariffs; it encompasses the potential for severe disruption to global supply chains, a decline in corporate profitability, and a tit-for-tat escalation that could choke off global economic growth.¹

This dynamic has created a precarious situation. Strategists at Deutsche Bank have pointed to a historical pattern from 2018 and 2019, where strong rallies in the US stock market seemed to embolden the administration to escalate tariff threats. These escalations then led to market downturns, which in turn prompted a pullback on tariffs, sparking another rally.¹⁷ This observation suggests that the current record-breaking strength in US equities could, paradoxically, be increasing the risk of a negative trade policy outcome, creating a potential feedback loop where short-term domestic gains translate into long-term global pain.

A Tale of Two US Economies: Interpreting Conflicting Data

While the world fretted about trade, the US market was laser-focused on a stream of domestic economic data that presented a deeply conflicting picture of the economy’s health. This “tale of two economies” was central to the week’s narrative, with investors ultimately choosing to embrace the positive headlines while largely ignoring the weaker underlying signals.

The week’s most significant data point was the June jobs report, released a day early on Thursday due to the July 4th holiday. The report was unambiguously strong, showing the economy added 147,000 non-farm payrolls (NFP), decisively beating consensus expectations that ranged from 106,000 to 111,000.³ Adding to the positive news, the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2%, defying forecasts that it would rise.³ This robust report was the primary fuel for the US stock market’s rally to new record highs, as it eased fears of an imminent economic slowdown.²

However, other data released during the week painted a far less rosy picture. The ADP private payrolls report, often seen as a preview of the official NFP data, shocked analysts by showing a contraction of 33,000 jobs in June, its worst reading since the early days of the pandemic in March 2023.³ This was a stark contrast to expectations of a 105,000 gain. Furthermore, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI registered its fourth consecutive month in contraction territory at a reading of 49.0, while construction spending declined for a fifth straight month.³ This divergence between the strong official jobs report and weaker survey-based data highlights a potential fracture in the economy. The market’s decision to rally on the NFP data suggests investors are prioritising the lagging, albeit official, indicator of employment over more forward-looking signals from the manufacturing and private sectors that may be hinting at a future slowdown.

Table 2: Key US Economic Indicators (June 2025 Data)

Policy in Play: The Fed’s Stance and a New Tax Bill

The week’s developments were not limited to economic data; two major policy events in Washington also played a crucial role. The strong jobs report triggered a significant recalibration of monetary policy expectations, while the passage of a fiscal package provided an additional tailwind for equities.

First, the blowout NFP report caused a dramatic repricing of Federal Reserve interest rate futures. Before the report, traders had priced in a roughly 25% chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s July meeting. In the hours following the data release, that probability collapsed to just 5%.³ This rapid shift reflects the market’s view that a resilient labour market gives the Fed little reason to rush into easing monetary policy. The development put the central bank in a difficult position, caught between its dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. While inflation has cooled, the strong job market complicates the case for rate cuts, especially with the looming threat of tariffs potentially reigniting price pressures.¹⁵ This repricing sent short-term Treasury yields higher, with the 2-year note yield rising 10 basis points after the report.¹⁸

Second, the US Congress passed President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” a legislative package that extends key provisions of the 2017 tax cuts, including lower tax rates and higher standard deductions for many households.¹ This move was widely interpreted as a near-term positive for the market, providing a dose of fiscal stimulus that boosted investor sentiment and contributed to the week’s rally.¹ However, the bill is not without its critics. Analysts have raised long-term concerns about its potential to significantly increase the national debt.¹ For now, the market appears to be setting aside these worries, a view supported by the fact that 10-year Treasury yields remain below where they started the year, suggesting bond investors are not yet demanding a higher premium for the risk of rising government debt.²¹

Regional Market Analysis: A Detailed Breakdown

The global macroeconomic currents of trade, data, and policy manifested differently across the world’s major financial centers. The week’s performance was largely dictated by each region’s proximity to, and dependence on, these key drivers, resulting in a fractured and divergent global market landscape.

United States: Record Highs in a Holiday-Shortened Week

US equity markets marched to their own beat, shrugging off global anxieties to post strong gains and notch multiple record highs in a week shortened by the July 4th Independence Day holiday. Trading volumes were generally light as investors headed into the long weekend, but the underlying momentum was decisively positive.²

The S&P 500 was the star performer, rising 1.7% for the week to close at 6,274.³ The benchmark index set its fourth all-time high in just five trading days, capping a remarkable recovery from the tariff-induced volatility seen earlier in the year.² The tech-heavy

Nasdaq Composite also reached a new peak, gaining 1.0% for the week to finish at 20,601.10.¹⁴ 

Dow Jones Industrial Average was the strongest of the major indices on a percentage basis, adding 2.30% to close the week at 44,828.53, just shy of its own record.⁶

This powerful rally was underpinned by a sense of calm, as measured by the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX). The market’s “fear gauge” fell to a four-month low of 16.38, indicating low expectations of short-term volatility despite the significant macroeconomic risks on the horizon.¹⁸

Sector Spotlight

The week’s advance was led by a powerful rally in the technology sector, particularly among semiconductor and software companies. A key catalyst was the US government’s decision to ease restrictions on the export of certain chip design software to China, which was interpreted as a positive step in US-China relations.²

• Winners: The semiconductor space saw broad gains. Nvidia (NVDA) continued its ascent, rising 1.3% and pushing its market capitalisation closer to the $4 trillion mark.¹⁸ Chip-design software firms
  Synopsys (SNPS) and Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) were standout performers, surging 4.9% and 5.1%, respectively, on the news of relaxed export rules.² The newly passed tax bill also created winners, with solar power stocks gaining ground after the final version of the legislation omitted a proposed tax on certain clean-energy projects. Shares of panel manufacturer
  First Solar (FSLR) soared 8.5%, making it the top performer in the S&P 500 on Thursday.²
• Losers: On the other side of the ledger, interest-rate sensitive sectors faced pressure. The strong jobs report and the subsequent rise in Treasury yields diminished hopes for lower borrowing costs, which weighed on homebuilder stocks. Lennar (LEN) was the biggest decliner in the S&P 500 on Thursday, falling 4.1%, while its peers D.R. Horton (DHI) and NVR Inc. (NVR) also saw significant losses.²

Europe: Weighed Down by Trade Anxieties

European stock markets endured a difficult week, ending firmly in the red as investors found it impossible to ignore the growing threat of a trade dispute with the United States. The positive momentum from Wall Street failed to cross the Atlantic, with the looming tariff deadline serving as the dominant and overwhelmingly negative driver of sentiment.

Major continental indices saw significant weekly declines. Germany’s export-heavy DAX 40 was particularly hard-hit, falling 2.32% for the week to close at 23,759.40.¹¹ In Paris, the

CAC 40 lost 1.41% to finish at 7,680.10.¹² The pan-European

STOXX 600 index also fell, with losses accelerating into the close on Friday as investors adopted a clear risk-off posture ahead of the weekend.¹⁸ In the UK, the

FTSE 100 slipped 0.4% on Friday to end the week at 8,790.21.⁴

The primary cause of the downturn was the fear that the US would impose new tariffs on European goods, particularly automobiles and other industrial products. President Trump’s explicit comments that his administration would begin sending out letters to notify trading partners of unilateral tariff rates sent a chill through the markets.⁴ This uncertainty weighed heavily on sentiment, leading to a broad sell-off that was most pronounced in sectors with high exposure to international trade.

Central Bank Commentary

The week also featured important commentary from Europe’s top central bankers, who gathered for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) annual forum in Sintra, Portugal.

• European Central Bank (ECB): President Christine Lagarde delivered a keynote speech in which she acknowledged that the global economic landscape has become more uncertain, making inflation more volatile and unpredictable due to frequent shocks like the pandemic and geopolitical conflicts.²⁴ The ECB formally reaffirmed its 2% inflation target. Separately, the published minutes from the bank’s June policy meeting revealed growing concerns among policymakers that persistent trade tensions could intensify and pose a risk to the economic outlook.²⁵ In a move to strengthen financial oversight, the ECB also announced it had signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the new European Anti-Money Laundering Authority (AMLA) to formalise information sharing.²⁶
• Bank of England (BoE): Speaking at the same Sintra forum, Alan Taylor, an external member of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), struck a notably dovish tone. He argued that the central bank should be cutting interest rates more aggressively, warning that the prospect of a “soft landing” for the UK economy was now at risk due to the deteriorating global trade outlook.²⁷ Meanwhile, back in the UK, the BoE was active on the regulatory front. The central bank launched a formal inquiry into the rapid growth of private credit markets and their potential systemic risks.²⁸ In a nod to financial innovation, the BoE also announced that it is considering how stablecoins could be used in wholesale payment systems through its ongoing Digital Securities Sandbox initiative.²⁹

Asia: A Region of Contrasts

Asian markets presented a mixed and fractured picture, caught in a tug-of-war between the positive lead from Wall Street’s record-breaking rally and the more immediate, regional threat posed by the looming US tariff deadline. The result was a week where performance varied significantly by country, depending on each market’s specific exposure to the global trade conflict.⁴

• Japan: The Nikkei 225 saw its three-week winning streak come to an end, with the benchmark index falling 0.85% for the week to close at 39,810.88.⁷ The market experienced a split personality; chip-related stocks like
  Advantest and Tokyo Electron posted gains, tracking the strong performance of their American peers in the semiconductor sector. However, this strength was not enough to offset the broader caution that prevailed across the market as investors refrained from making large bets ahead of the US tariff deadline.⁷
• China & Hong Kong: A clear divergence emerged between mainland China and Hong Kong. On the mainland, the Shanghai Composite Index bucked the regional trend, rising 1.08% for the week to close at 3,472.32.⁴ This resilience was largely attributed to a sliver of positive news on the trade front, as the US government’s decision to relax restrictions on some chip software exports was seen as a hopeful sign of de-escalation.¹⁸ In stark contrast, Hong Kong’s
  Hang Seng Index, which is more exposed to international capital flows and sentiment, fell 0.88% for the week to finish at 23,916.06.⁴ The decline reflected the city’s greater sensitivity to global trade jitters and was compounded by weak local economic data.¹⁸
• South Korea: The KOSPI index was one of the region’s most significant underperformers, highlighting the market’s acute vulnerability to trade tensions. The export-driven South Korean economy is seen as being particularly exposed to potential US tariffs, leading to a sharp sell-off. The index dropped between 1.2% and 2.0% on Friday alone, closing the week with substantial losses as investor anxiety reached a fever pitch.⁴

India: Resilience Amidst Volatility

Indian markets navigated a choppy and volatile week to finish with modest gains, demonstrating a growing resilience that was underpinned by strong domestic investment flows even as foreign investors remained cautious.

The country’s two main benchmark indices ended the week in positive territory. The BSE Sensex gained 0.28% for the week, closing at 83,471.88, while the Nifty 50 rose 0.22% to settle at 25,461.¹⁰ Both indices managed to snap a two-day losing streak on Friday, staging a recovery in the second half of the session after touching intraday lows.³¹

The key dynamic shaping the Indian market was a tug-of-war between domestic optimism and foreign caution. Data revealed persistent net selling by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), who have been reducing their exposure amid global uncertainty.³³ However, this selling pressure was effectively absorbed by robust buying from Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), including mutual funds and insurance companies. This trend highlights a significant structural shift in the Indian market, where strong domestic liquidity is increasingly providing a buffer against global headwinds, making the market less susceptible to foreign capital flight.³³

Investor caution was also linked to the ongoing, high-stakes trade negotiations between India and the United States. With the July 9 deadline also applying to these talks, the lack of a clear resolution on key sticking points, particularly regarding market access for agriculture and dairy products, kept investors on edge.³¹

Beneath the surface of the relatively flat headline indices, the market was anything but quiet. The week was characterised by intense stock-specific action and significant sectoral rotation. On Friday alone, 52 different stocks on the National Stock Exchange reached new 52-week highs, while 34 stocks fell to new 52-week lows.³³ This wide divergence indicates that investors are not making broad, market-wide bets. Instead, they are engaging in a “stock-picker’s market,” actively rotating capital into sectors with perceived defensive qualities or specific growth catalysts—such as specialty chemicals, defence, and healthcare—while punishing companies that disappoint on performance or outlook.³³ A prime example was the sharp reaction to corporate updates: shares of retail company

Trent plunged over 11% after its management commentary on first-quarter business spooked investors.³¹ This environment suggests that as the Q1 earnings season gets underway, corporate results and management guidance will be critical in determining individual stock performance.

Oceania: Riding a Wave of Rate Cut Expectations

The equity markets of Australia and New Zealand sailed through the week on a current of domestic optimism, largely insulated from the global tariff turmoil by strong expectations of monetary policy easing. Both markets posted healthy gains for the week.

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index climbed 1.0% for the week, closing at 8,609.50.⁸ In New Zealand, the

S&P/NZX 50 was also a strong performer, gaining 1.6% over the last five trading days to finish the week around the 12,766 level.⁹

The primary driver for the Australian market’s outperformance was the widespread conviction that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is poised to cut its cash rate for the third time this year. The central bank’s policy meeting is scheduled for the upcoming week on July 8, and the market has almost fully priced in another 25-basis-point reduction in response to moderating inflation data and a weakening domestic economic outlook.⁸ This prospect of lower interest rates has boosted the appeal of equities, particularly dividend-paying stocks and rate-sensitive sectors like real estate investment trusts (REITs).

As a resource-heavy economy, the Australian market’s performance was also influenced by the week’s movements in global commodity markets. The price action was mixed, reflecting the cross-currents of global supply and demand dynamics.

Table 3: Key Commodity Price Movements (Week Ending July 4, 2025)

Iron ore futures logged their second consecutive weekly gain, with the key Singapore-traded contract rising 2.4%. The rally was fueled by hopes that China’s government will implement supply-side reforms in its steel industry, which could support prices for the raw material.³⁷ In contrast,

crude oil prices retreated during the week, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling to around $66.55 per barrel as earlier fears of a supply disruption from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East subsided.⁴

Gold prices benefited from the risk-averse mood, rising for the week as investors sought the precious metal as a safe haven amid the escalating trade uncertainty.⁵ Meanwhile,

coal futures for delivery from Richards Bay in South Africa saw a weekly decline of approximately 1.41%.³⁹

Conclusion: A Market at a Crossroads

The week ending July 4th crystallised a defining theme for global markets in 2025: a resilient, domestically-focused US market charting its own upward course while the rest of the world holds its breath, seemingly hostage to the whims of American trade policy. The powerful rally on Wall Street, fueled by a strong jobs report and the promise of fiscal stimulus, stood in stark and telling contrast to the risk-averse sentiment that gripped financial centres from Frankfurt to Tokyo. This divergence has created a fragile and potentially unsustainable equilibrium.

The apparent calm in the US market, reflected in the VIX volatility index falling to a four-month low, belies deep undercurrents of risk.¹⁸ This placid surface masks the unresolved US-China trade conflict, the contradictory signals emanating from US economic data, and the ever-present potential for a policy misstep. The equity market appears to be pricing in a best-case scenario on trade—one where deals are struck and tariffs are avoided—a particularly optimistic bet given the administration’s aggressive rhetoric.¹

The coming week will be pivotal. The market’s direction will be almost entirely dictated by the outcome of the trade negotiations leading up to the July 9 deadline. A favorable resolution, involving new trade deals or at least a credible extension of the negotiating period, could ignite a powerful relief rally, allowing nervous global markets to catch up with their American counterparts. Conversely, a breakdown in talks or the unilateral imposition of harsh new tariffs could swiftly extinguish the rally on Wall Street. Such a negative outcome would validate the caution seen across the globe and serve as a stark reminder that in a deeply interconnected global economy, no market is an island for long.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a personal recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The information provided herein is based on research materials and sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions are subject to rapid change, and past performance is not indicative of future results. All investment involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.

Investors should conduct their own research, consider their own financial situation and investment objectives, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the authoring team and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any associated agency or institution. The content of this report should not be construed as legal, tax, or financial advice.

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