Global Markets Review: The Pivot to Value and the AI Reality Check (Week Ending December 12, 2025)

A Week of Divergence and Recalibration

The trading week ending December 12, 2025, stands as a defining moment in the financial narrative of the mid-2020s, marking a decisive shift in investor psychology and capital allocation. It was a week characterised by a profound bifurcation in market behaviour, where the macroeconomic tailwinds of monetary easing clashed violently with microeconomic headwinds stemming from the technology sector.

Global equities navigated a complex landscape dominated by two overarching themes: the Federal Reserve’s “hawkish cut” and the resurgence of anxiety regarding the durability of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) investment boom. On the macroeconomic front, the United States Federal Reserve executed its third interest rate reduction of the year, lowering the benchmark rate by 25 basis points.¹ This move, widely anticipated by market participants, was intended to bolster liquidity and ensure a “soft landing” for the American economy. The immediate reaction in broader equity markets was positive, fueling a rotation into cyclical and value-oriented sectors—financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary stocks—which propelled the Dow Jones Industrial Average to record highs.³

However, this optimism was sharply counterbalanced by a distinct tremor in the technology sector. The “AI trade,” which has been the singular engine of market performance for the better part of two years, faced a rigorous reality check. Disappointing guidance and warnings regarding capital expenditure intensity from industry bellwethers such as Oracle and Broadcom reignited fears of an “AI bubble,” dragging the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite into negative territory.⁵ Investors were forced to confront the uncomfortable possibility that infrastructure spending is outpacing immediate monetisation, leading to a sharp rotation out of high-growth tech and into more defensible, valuation-sensitive assets.

Beyond North America, the global picture was equally nuanced. European markets were caught in a tug-of-war between the relief of US monetary easing and the gloom of domestic economic stagnation, exemplified by an unexpected contraction in the United Kingdom’s GDP.² In Asia, the narrative was dominated by policy divergence: China pledged “proactive” fiscal support to reinvigorate its economy, while Japan grappled with the spectre of monetary normalisation.⁸ Meanwhile, commodity markets witnessed a “Great Divergence,” with crude oil plummeting on oversupply fears while gold surged to near-record highs, driven by a debasement trade and geopolitical hedging.¹⁰

This report offers an exhaustive analysis of these dynamics, dissecting the interplay between central bank policy, corporate earnings, and geopolitical risks. It explores the implications of the “Great Rotation” for portfolio construction and provides a detailed regional breakdown of market performance across the US, Europe, Asia, India, and Oceania.

United States: The Engine of Rotation

The United States equity market remained the epicentre of global financial activity, dictating the tempo for risk assets worldwide. The week was defined by a classic “rotation” trade, where capital fled the crowded, expensive trades of the technology sector and sought refuge in underappreciated areas of the market that stand to benefit from a lower interest rate environment.

Federal Reserve Policy: The “Hawkish Cut”

The pivotal event of the week was the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which concluded with a decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.50%–3.75%.¹² While a rate cut is ostensibly a bullish signal for equities, the nuances of this specific policy action suggest a more complex “hawkish cut.”

The Rationale for Easing

The Federal Reserve’s decision was underpinned by a confluence of data points suggesting that the US economy is successfully decelerating without crashing—the coveted “soft landing.”

• Inflation Dynamics: The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.8% year-over-year in September, coming in slightly cooler than the 2.9% expectation.¹³ This continued disinflationary trend provided the FOMC with the political and economic cover necessary to justify further easing.
• Labour Market Softening: The employment picture offered mixed but supportive signals. Initial jobless claims rose to 236,000, missing forecasts, while continuing claims fell to their lowest level since April 2025.⁹ This softening, while not alarming, indicated that the labour market is no longer overheating, mitigating wage-spiral inflation risks.
• Trade Balance Improvement: A positive surprise emerged from trade data, with the US trade deficit narrowing significantly to $52.8 billion in September—the lowest since mid-2020—driven by a surge in exports.⁹

The “Hawkish” Signal and Dissent

Despite the cut, the tone from the Fed was far from dovish. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasised a “higher bar” for future rate cuts, signalling that the central bank is not on a predetermined path to zero. The “dot plot” of economic projections indicated potentially only one additional cut in 2026, forcing markets to recalibrate their expectations for “easy money”.¹

Crucially, the decision was not unanimous. Dissenting voices within the Fed, specifically influential policymakers like Schmid and Goolsbee, argued against the cut or advocated for a slower pace.⁶ Goolsbee, typically seen as a dove, warned against “front-loading” cuts, suggesting that the economy might still be running too hot to justify aggressive easing. Schmid explicitly dissented, arguing that inflation remains “too hot” and that policy should remain modestly restrictive.⁶ This internal division highlights the precarious nature of the current policy path; the Fed is attempting to fine-tune a massive economy with blunt instruments, and the margin for error is narrowing.

The bond market reacted with volatility. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note initially dipped on the announcement but reversed course to climb back to the 4.17%–4.19% range by Friday.¹⁴ This “bear steepening” of the yield curve—where long-term rates rise despite short-term cuts—indicates that bond investors are pricing in higher long-term inflation or growth, rather than a recessionary collapse.

Market Performance: A Tale of Two Indices

The divergence in policy signals was mirrored by a divergence in index performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, laden with financial, industrial, and healthcare stocks, rallied to fresh record highs. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite, dominated by technology and AI-related names, suffered its worst week in months.

Weekly Index Performance Summary:

The Technology Sector: Bursting the AI Bubble?

The defining narrative for Wall Street this week was the sudden and sharp repricing of the Artificial Intelligence theme. For nearly two years, the promise of generative AI has driven valuations to stratospheric levels. This week, the bill came due.

Oracle’s Capex Warning

The catalyst for the sell-off was Oracle Corporation (ORCL). The cloud infrastructure giant reported quarterly earnings that missed revenue expectations, but the real damage was done in the guidance. Oracle revealed that its capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 would be approximately $15 billion higher than previous projections.¹⁷

This revelation struck a nerve. Investors interpreted this as a sign that the cost of building AI infrastructure is escalating rapidly, while the timeline for monetising that infrastructure remains nebulous. The market began to question the return on investment (ROI) for the hundreds of billions of dollars being poured into data centres and GPUs. Oracle shares plummeted nearly 11% to 13%, dragging the entire software and cloud sector down with them.⁴

Broadcom’s Margin Compression

Adding fuel to the fire was Broadcom (AVGO). Despite beating Q4 earnings estimates and forecasting a doubling of AI chip sales, the stock fell between 6% and 12% during volatile trading sessions.³ The issue was not revenue growth, which remains robust, but profitability. Broadcom warned of margin pressures, suggesting that the intense competition and high costs associated with scaling AI production are beginning to erode the bottom line. This signalled that even the “pick and shovel” providers of the AI gold rush are not immune to the laws of economics.

The Nvidia Contagion

Nvidia (NVDA), the undisputed king of the AI rally, was caught in the crossfire. Although there was no specific negative news from the company itself—in fact, reports surfaced that President Trump would allow sales of advanced chips to China—the stock fell 1.5% to 2.5% in sympathy with the broader sector.⁴ Investors used the weakness in Oracle and Broadcom as a pretext to take profits on Nvidia, reflecting a growing uneasiness about the sector’s valuation multiples.

Sectoral Bright Spots: The Rotation Winners

While technology bled, other sectors flourished, validating the “soft landing” thesis. The rotation was not a flight to cash, but a reallocation of risk.

• Financials and Banks: The financial sector was a primary beneficiary of the Fed’s rate cut. Lower rates reduce the cost of funding for banks, while a steepening yield curve (long-term rates rising relative to short-term rates) improves net interest margins. Citigroup was a standout performer, rallying as investors bet on improved lending profitability.³
• Consumer Discretionary: In a surprising twist, the consumer sector showed resilience. Lululemon Athletica (LULU) surged nearly 10-12% after raising its full-year revenue outlook to near $11 billion and announcing that CEO Calvin McDonald would step down.³ The positive reaction to the guidance suggests that the upper-middle-class US consumer remains willing to spend on premium goods, defying recessionary gloom.
• Cannabis Speculation: A speculative frenzy erupted in the cannabis sector following reports that President Trump intends to ease federal restrictions on marijuana. Tilray soared 33% and Canopy Growth jumped 23%, reminding investors that regulatory shifts remain a potent driver of alpha in niche sectors.³

Europe: Economic Stagnation and Market Resilience

Across the Atlantic, European markets struggled to find a unified direction. The region is caught in a precarious position: it lacks the dynamic growth engine of the US tech sector, yet it faces more acute economic stagnation. The result was a mixed performance, with indices largely treading water as investors weighed external support from the Fed against internal weakness.

Pan-European Performance

The broad STOXX Europe 600 index ended the week marginally lower by 0.09%, closing at 578.24.²⁰ This slight decline masked significant volatility beneath the surface, as gains in defensive sectors were offset by the tech contagion emanating from the US.

United Kingdom: The Growth Scare

The most concerning data of the week came from the United Kingdom. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that UK GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in October.²

• Sectoral Breakdown: The contraction was broad-based. The services sector, the engine of the UK economy, shrank by 0.3%, while construction output slipped 0.6%. The only bright spot was industrial production, which rebounded by 1.1%.⁷
• The “Technical” Recession Risk: While some of the weakness was attributed to temporary factors—notably a cyber-attack that shut down a Jaguar Land Rover plant—the data reinforced the view that the British economy is stalling.²⁴ This has intensified pressure on the Bank of England (BoE). The market is now pricing in a higher probability of aggressive rate cuts at the BoE’s upcoming December 18 meeting to stave off a technical recession.²
• Market Impact: The FTSE 100 fell 0.2% for the week.²¹ The index was weighed down by its heavy exposure to energy and mining stocks (Shell, BP, Rio Tinto), which suffered from the global commodities slump, although precious metals miners like Fresnillo (+5.8%) provided some support.²

Germany: A Surprising Resilience

Germany’s DAX index bucked the regional trend, gaining 0.7% for the week.²² This outperformance was driven largely by specific corporate stories rather than broad macroeconomic strength.

• The “Athleisure” Rally: German sportswear giants Adidas and Puma saw significant buying interest. Adidas rose 2.8% and Puma jumped 4.5%.²² This rally was a direct sympathy trade following Lululemon’s strong results in the US. Investors reasoned that if the US consumer is still buying premium yoga pants, they are likely still buying premium sneakers, boding well for the German brands’ global revenue.
• Defence Spending: The defence sector also provided a tailwind. Shares in Rheinmetall (+3.4%) and Hensoldt (+4.4%) rallied following reports that German lawmakers are poised to approve a record €52 billion in military procurement contracts.²⁵ This reflects the ongoing structural shift in Europe toward rearmament in the face of geopolitical instability.

The Tech Contagion in Europe

Europe’s technology sector, though smaller than its US counterpart, was not immune to the sell-off. ASML Holding, the critical supplier of semiconductor lithography machines, fell 1.2%, while German software giant SAP dropped 2.8%.²⁶ The logic was direct: if Oracle is seeing lower returns on AI investment, and Broadcom is seeing margin pressure, the entire value chain—from software (SAP) to hardware tools (ASML)—could face a slowdown in demand.

Asia-Pacific: Policy Divergence and Stimulus Hopes

Asian markets presented a fragmented picture, heavily influenced by divergent national policies. While China moved to stimulate its flagging economy, Japan moved to tighten monetary conditions, creating a complex investment landscape.

China and Hong Kong: The “Proactive” Pledge

All eyes were on Beijing this week as the government convened the annual Central Economic Work Conference, a closed-door meeting of top leadership that sets the economic agenda for the coming year.

• The Policy Signal: The outcome was a pledge to maintain a “proactive” fiscal policy and a “moderately loose” monetary policy for 2026. The explicit goal is to reverse the decline in fixed-asset investment and, crucially, to boost domestic consumer spending.⁸ This acknowledgment of demand-side weakness was welcomed by investors who have long called for stimulus targeted at households rather than just infrastructure.
• Market Reaction: The Shanghai Composite rallied 0.41% on Friday, closing at 3,889.35, responding positively to the stimulus pledge.²⁸ However, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong ended the week down 0.42%, breaking a two-week winning streak.²⁹ The disconnect suggests that international investors (who trade Hong Kong) remain sceptical about the implementation of these pledges, while domestic investors (Shanghai) are more optimistic.
• Tech Volatility: Chinese tech giants were volatile. Alibaba and Tencent saw choppy trading as investors weighed the benefits of domestic stimulus against the headwinds of US tech weakness and potential new tariffs from Mexico.⁹

Japan: The Shadow of Normalisation

Japan’s markets ended the week on a high note, with the Nikkei 225 gaining 1.37% on Friday to close at 50,836.55.²⁸ However, the broader narrative in Tokyo is one of caution.

• BoJ Rate Hike Fears: Investors are increasingly nervous about the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) upcoming policy meeting. There is growing speculation that the BoJ will raise interest rates again to combat inflation and stabilise the Yen. This prospect of monetary normalisation—ending decades of ultra-easy money—is a headwind for Japanese equities, particularly exporters who benefit from a weak currency.¹⁸
• SoftBank’s Wild Ride: SoftBank Group, a massive investor in global technology, acted as a proxy for the global AI trade. Its shares initially plunged over 7% following the Oracle news but rebounded to gain 3.9% by Friday.⁹ This extreme volatility underscores the stock’s sensitivity to global tech sentiment.

South Korea: The Chip Cycle

South Korea’s KOSPI index managed to post gains, driven largely by the semiconductor sector. Despite the global tech wobble, SK Hynix rose 1.1%.²⁷ As a primary supplier of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) chips used in Nvidia’s GPUs, SK Hynix benefited from the belief that even if AI software monetisation is slow (Oracle’s problem), the demand for hardware remains insatiable in the short term.

India: Domestic Resilience Amidst Foreign Outflows

The Indian equity market continued to demonstrate remarkable resilience, functioning as a largely uncorrelated asset class driven by domestic liquidity.

Weekly Performance

The benchmark indices, the Sensex and Nifty 50, experienced a week of consolidation. Both indices declined approximately 0.5% for the week ending December 12, 2025.³⁰ However, the week ended with a strong rally on Friday, with the Sensex climbing 450 points (+0.53%) to settle at 85,267.66, and the Nifty reclaiming the psychological 26,000 level to close at 26,046.95 (+0.57%).¹

The FII vs. DII Dynamic

The structural story of the Indian market remains the battle between foreign selling and domestic buying.

• Foreign Outflows: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued their selling spree, offloading ₹2,020 crore of equities on Thursday alone.¹ This selling is driven by high valuations in India relative to other emerging markets and the allure of recovering Chinese markets.
• Domestic Support: This selling pressure was completely absorbed by Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), who bought ₹3,796 crore of stocks on the same day.¹ The deepening of India’s domestic capital pool—driven by mutual fund SIPs (Systematic Investment Plans)—has created a floor for the market, insulating it from global volatility.

Sectoral Trends

• Metals Shine: The metal sector was the top performer on Friday, led by Tata Steel and Hindalco (part of the Nifty). This rally was fueled by the Chinese stimulus pledges, which imply higher demand for steel and base metals.¹
• Defensive Lag: Interestingly, defensive sectors like FMCG (Fast-Moving Consumer Goods) and Pharmaceuticals lagged. Hindustan Unilever and Sun Pharma were among the top losers, suggesting that despite the consolidation, risk appetite in India remains healthy enough to favour cyclical growth over safety.¹

Oceania: Commodities and Interest Rate Pain

The markets of Australia and New Zealand diverged sharply, reflecting their different economic sensitivities.

Australia: Riding the Resource Wave

The S&P/ASX 200 in Australia outperformed many global peers, gaining 0.73% for the week to close at 8,697.30.³¹

• Mining Strength: The index is heavily weighted toward resources, and the miners had a stellar week. BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue all rallied.³² This was driven by two factors: the surge in gold prices (boosting gold miners like Evolution Mining and Newmont) and the anticipation of Chinese infrastructure stimulus boosting iron ore demand.
• Financials: The “Big Four” banks also rallied, supported by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to keep the cash rate on hold at 4.35% (often referred to as ~3.6-4.35% range depending on the facility).¹⁷ The RBA maintained a hawkish pause, signalling it is not yet ready to cut, but banks benefited from the stability and the global rotation into financials.

New Zealand: The Mortgage Shock

Across the Tasman Sea, the NZX 50 fell 0.6% for the week.³³ The catalyst was a negative shock from the banking sector: Westpac NZ unexpectedly hiked its mortgage rates (specifically the two-to-five year fixed rates).

• Implications: This move signalled that funding costs remain high and effectively tightened monetary conditions for households, even without an official RBNZ rate hike. This crushed sentiment in the property-sensitive market.
• Sector Impact: Property stocks were hit hard, with Investore Property falling nearly 5%.³³ The retail sector also suffered, as higher mortgage payments inevitably crowd out discretionary spending.

Commodities: The Great Divergence

The commodities complex offered a fascinating study in contrast, described by analysts as “The Great Divergence.” Energy prices collapsed while precious metals soared, signalling a market that is simultaneously pricing in a manufacturing slowdown (deflation) and currency debasement (inflation).

Crude Oil: The Supply Glut Narrative

Oil prices suffered a brutal week, with Brent Crude falling nearly 4% to trade around $61.07–$61.54 per barrel, and WTI Crude dropping to $57.06–$57.90, hitting 7-week lows.³⁴

• Oversupply Fears: The dominant narrative is one of a massive “supply glut.” The International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report forecasting a record surplus for 2026. The agency cited relentless production growth from non-OPEC nations—particularly the US, Brazil, and Guyana—combined with tepid demand growth from China.³⁵
• Geopolitics Ignored: Remarkably, traders largely ignored traditional bullish triggers. The US seized a Venezuelan tanker, sparking tensions, and Ukraine launched drone strikes against Russian “shadow fleet” tankers.³⁴ In a normal market, these threats to supply would spike prices. The fact that oil fell despite them underscores just how bearish the fundamental supply/demand outlook has become.

Gold and Silver: The Debasement Trade

While “black gold” crashed, real gold soared. Gold prices broke above $4,300 per ounce, trading near all-time highs.¹⁰

• The Drivers: The rally was fueled by the Fed’s rate cut (lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion) and persistent central bank buying. Investors are increasingly using gold not just as an inflation hedge, but as a hedge against fiscal profligacy and geopolitical instability—a “debasement trade.”
• Silver Outperformance: Silver, which is both a precious and an industrial metal, outperformed gold, surging over 6% to top $64 per ounce.³² This suggests that while industrial demand (oil) is weak, the monetary demand for hard assets is overwhelmingly strong.

Digital Assets: Consolidation and Institutional Flows

The cryptocurrency market, led by Bitcoin, entered a consolidation phase after recent highs, showing resilience in the face of macro volatility.

• Bitcoin (BTC): The leading digital asset traded in a tight range between $88,000 and $93,000, ending the week largely flat at approximately $90,218.³⁸
• Institutional Rotation: ETF flow data indicated a rotation rather than an exodus. While some capital flowed out of Bitcoin ETFs, flows into other crypto assets and blockchain equities remained steady.⁹ The market appears to be digesting the massive gains of 2024/2025.
• Fed Impact: The Fed’s “hawkish cut” was a double-edged sword for crypto. It provided liquidity, which is bullish, but the “higher for longer” signal on long-term rates capped the explosive upside potential in the short term.

Conclusion: Navigating the Transition

The week ending December 12, 2025, served as a microcosm of the challenges awaiting investors in the coming year. The seamless rally of the “Goldilocks” era—where growth was high and inflation was falling—appears to be fracturing.

We are witnessing a “Great Rotation” from momentum to value. The “AI at any cost” narrative has been punctured; investors now demand profitability and tangible returns on CapEx, a shift that will likely keep volatility high in the tech sector through the first quarter of 2026. Conversely, sectors that were left for dead—banks, industrials, small-caps—are finding new life as interest rates begin their slow descent.

Regionally, the divergence is stark. The US economy is slowing but remains the global engine. Europe is flirting with recession, necessitating urgent monetary rescue. Asia is poised for a stimulus-led recovery, but remains contingent on Beijing’s execution and Tokyo’s policy management.

For investors, the signal from this week is clear: diversification is no longer optional. The era of blindly buying the tech index is likely pausing. The winning portfolio of 2026 may look very different from the winning portfolio of 2025, heavily weighted instead toward real assets (gold), domestic resilience (India), and value/yield (dividend payers and bonds).

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. All investments involve risk, including the loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Market data mentioned in this report is sourced from publicly available news snippets and may be subject to revision. Readers should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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