Global Markets Hit Record Highs as Inflation Cools, Fueling Hopes for Rate Cuts

The Week in Review: A Global Rally Built on Shifting Expectations

The week ending October 24, 2025, was a tale of two distinct market narratives. It began under a cloud of anxiety, with investors grappling with disappointing earnings from technology bellwethers and simmering geopolitical tensions that pushed Wall Street’s “fear gauge” to a six-month high.¹ However, by the time the closing bells rang on Friday, the mood had shifted dramatically. A powerful global rally took hold, erasing earlier losses and propelling multiple major indices in the United States and Europe to all-time highs.³ The decisive catalyst for this remarkable turnaround was a single, pivotal piece of economic data: a softer-than-expected U.S. inflation report that fundamentally reshaped expectations for central bank policy and overpowered all other concerns.⁶

Three main forces dictated the flow of capital and sentiment throughout the week. First and foremost was the inflation game-changer. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released on Friday after being delayed by a government shutdown, came in cooler than anticipated, solidifying investor bets that the Federal Reserve now has a clear runway to begin cutting interest rates.⁵ Second was the rollercoaster of the third-quarter earnings season, which provided a mixed and often volatile backdrop. Strong results from major banks and industrial giants were offset by high-profile misses from technology and consumer-focused companies, leading to significant stock-specific turbulence mid-week.¹ Finally, geopolitical crosscurrents added another layer of complexity. Easing U.S.-China trade tensions, sparked by the confirmation of a presidential summit, provided a major boost to Asian markets.¹⁰ Simultaneously, new U.S. sanctions against Russia’s energy sector caused a sharp spike in crude oil prices, impacting energy stocks globally.¹

The week’s trading activity culminated in a broad-based advance for most global equity markets, as summarised in the table below.

United States: New Records Forged in the Face of Volatility

U.S. stock markets concluded a choppy and news-driven week with a powerful rally, sending all three major benchmarks to fresh all-time highs.³ The S&P 500 rose 0.8% on Friday to close at 6,791.69, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 472 points, or 1%, to finish at 47,207.12, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.1% to 23,204.87.³ These gains cemented a strong weekly performance, with the S&P 500 advancing approximately 1.8% and both the Dow and Nasdaq rising about 2.0%.¹³ This impressive finish marked a significant rebound from a sharp sell-off the previous Friday, which had been the S&P 500’s worst single day since April.⁸

The Inflation Catalyst

The undisputed driver of the end-of-week surge was the long-awaited release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Friday morning.²⁵ The data proved to be the “less painful than feared” update that investors had been hoping for. Headline inflation increased by 0.3% on a month-over-month basis, just below the consensus expectation of a 0.4% rise. This brought the year-over-year inflation rate to 3.0%, also a tenth of a percentage point below forecasts.⁵ Crucially, core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was also softer than anticipated, rising 0.2% for the month against an expected 0.3%.⁵

The market’s reaction was immediate and overwhelmingly positive. The data was interpreted as giving the U.S. Federal Reserve a definitive green light to cut interest rates at its policy meeting the following week.⁶ This sentiment had been building throughout the week, supported by dovish commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who had highlighted “downside risks to employment” as a key concern.⁸ The soft inflation numbers effectively cemented these expectations, triggering a rush into risk assets as the prospect of cheaper borrowing costs came into sharp focus.⁶ The market’s euphoric response demonstrates a profound dependency on the direction of monetary policy. The week began with fundamentally negative news from corporate titans like Tesla and Netflix, which caused indices to fall. Yet, the release of a single economic data point suggesting a more lenient Federal Reserve completely erased those concerns and propelled the market to new heights. This indicates that the current market valuation is being driven more by the anticipated cost of capital than by the underlying strength of corporate earnings, a dynamic that could introduce fragility if central bank actions deviate from these high expectations.

A Turbulent Earnings Season

The week’s path to record highs was far from smooth, with significant intraday volatility caused by a decidedly mixed bag of third-quarter corporate earnings reports.¹ While approximately 85% of the S&P 500 companies that had reported by the end of the week managed to beat bottom-line expectations, high-profile disappointments from market leaders weighed heavily on sentiment mid-week.⁸

The most notable disappointments came from the technology and consumer discretionary sectors. Shares of Tesla (TSLA) fell after the electric vehicle maker reported a 37% plunge in third-quarter profit, as rising costs and price cuts undermined record vehicle sales.¹ The stock was also noted as a significant underperformer among the “Magnificent 7” for the year.⁹ Tech giant IBM (IBM) tumbled 7% after it reported slowing growth in its critical cloud software division, overshadowing an overall earnings beat.¹ Meanwhile, streaming leader Netflix (NFLX) saw its shares sink by more than 10% after its net income fell short of forecasts, a result the company attributed to a large one-time tax expense related to its business in Brazil.⁹

However, these negative reports were counterbalanced by bright spots in other areas of the economy. The earnings season kicked off on a positive note with major banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, all reporting better-than-expected results that helped buoy investor sentiment early in the week.⁸ Automaker Ford (F) provided a major boost, with its shares rising 12.2% after it topped analysts’ profit expectations.³ In the industrial sector, Honeywell (HON) climbed more than 4% on strong results, driven by a 12% sales growth in its aerospace technologies division.¹ The semiconductor space also offered encouragement, as Intel (INTC) shares rose after its profit blew past analyst forecasts, with its CEO crediting the artificial intelligence boom for accelerating demand.³

Investor Anxiety and Market Internals

Despite the record-breaking closes, there were clear signs of underlying investor nervousness throughout the week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” surged above the 20 level to its highest point since April before retreating sharply on Friday as the market rallied.² This anxiety was fueled in part by emerging concerns around credit quality in the regional banking sector, after a pair of banks disclosed problems with loans involving allegations of fraud.⁸

The bond market reflected this cautious mood, with investors seeking the relative safety of government debt. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note, which moves in the opposite direction of its price, dipped below the key 4.00% level to hit its lowest mark in months.¹ This flight to safety underscored the tension in a market that was simultaneously cheering the prospect of rate cuts while remaining wary of potential economic and financial system risks.

Europe: London Leads the Charge to an All-Time Peak

European stock markets posted a week of strong gains, with London’s FTSE 100 index emerging as a standout performer, surging to a new all-time peak.¹⁴ The UK’s blue-chip index climbed an impressive 3.1% for the week, its best weekly performance since April, closing at a record high of 9,645.62 on Friday.⁴ In Germany, the DAX 40 also enjoyed a positive week, gaining approximately 1.7% to finish at 24,244.¹⁶ Elsewhere, France’s CAC 40 ended Friday’s session flat, while the broader pan-European STOXX 600 index finished the week with a modest gain.⁸

The Triple Catalyst for the UK

The FTSE 100’s record-breaking run was fueled by a powerful and rare convergence of positive local and global factors. The first catalyst was a series of surprisingly strong domestic economic reports that boosted confidence in the UK economy. Flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for October revealed that business activity expanded at a faster pace than expected, driven by a significant rebound in the manufacturing sector.¹⁵ Adding to this positive picture, official data showed that UK retail sales unexpectedly rose by 0.5% in September, defying consensus forecasts for a decline and signalling resilient consumer activity.⁴

The second driver was a robust showing from the corporate sector. Banking giant NatWest was a major contributor to the index’s advance, with its shares soaring to a 15-year high after it reported a 30% jump in third-quarter pre-tax profit and raised its full-year guidance.⁴ Shares of the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) also surged during the week following a well-received trading update.⁴ The outperformance of the FTSE 100 was not merely a reflection of global trends but also a signal of a shift in perception regarding the UK’s domestic economic health. While global markets rallied on the U.S. inflation news, the FTSE’s 3.1% gain significantly outpaced the advances seen in the U.S. and Germany. This suggests that a UK-specific factor was at play. The combination of unexpectedly strong retail sales, positive PMI data, and robust earnings from a major domestic-facing bank like NatWest directly challenged the prevailing narrative of economic stagnation. Investors appeared to be pricing in a potential positive divergence for the UK economy, buying not only into the global “rate cut” story but also into a new, more optimistic narrative about the UK’s standalone economic prospects.

The third and final catalyst was the significant global tailwind provided by the soft U.S. inflation data. The increased probability of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut improved global risk sentiment, providing the final push that sent the London market into record territory.⁴

German Market Drivers

Germany’s DAX index also had a solid week, supported by encouraging local economic news and the broader positive global mood. Preliminary PMI data indicated that Germany’s private sector activity, particularly within the services sector, expanded in October at its fastest pace since May 2023, surprising analysts on the upside.¹⁶ The market also reacted favorably to the U.S. inflation report and the confirmation of the upcoming meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents, which helped to ease global trade fears.¹⁶ Corporate earnings in Germany were more mixed, with industrial giant Siemens Energy leading the gains while software company SAP lagged after posting its results.¹⁶

Beyond the markets, the week also featured significant policy discussions within the European Union. EU leaders agreed to move forward with a 2040 climate goal but delayed finalising the details, highlighting the ongoing tension between pursuing ambitious green policies and supporting energy-intensive industries.³¹ In a notable setback for global climate initiatives, a vote to adopt a global carbon price for the shipping industry was delayed by a year, a development widely seen as a victory for the Trump administration’s campaign to block such agreements.³¹

Asia: Markets Surge on U.S.-China Diplomatic Thaw

Asian stock markets rallied broadly on Friday, propelled by a significant geopolitical development that swept away much of the uncertainty that had been weighing on the region.¹⁰ Japan’s Nikkei 225 index jumped 1.4% to close at 49,299.65, while China’s Shanghai Composite index added 0.7% to finish at 3,950.31.¹⁰ Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index gained over 0.7%, and South Korea’s KOSPI was a regional standout, surging 2.5% to a fresh record high.¹⁰

The Primary Catalyst: Trump-Xi Summit Confirmed

The overwhelming driver for the region’s strong performance was the confirmation from the White House that U.S. President Donald Trump was scheduled to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping the following week.¹⁰ This news acted as a powerful catalyst, significantly reducing the uncertainty surrounding the protracted trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies—a major headwind that has persistently capped investor enthusiasm in Asia.⁸

The prospect of renewed high-level diplomatic engagement fueled immediate hopes for a de-escalation of the trade war, potentially leading to a stabilisation or rollback of tariffs. This boosted investor sentiment across the board and was particularly beneficial for the region’s technology and export-oriented stocks.¹⁰ The outsized positive reaction across Asian markets to this single piece of geopolitical news demonstrates their unique sensitivity to the state of U.S.-China relations. While Western markets were fixated on monetary policy, the primary risk factor for Asia remains geopolitical stability and trade. The 2.5% surge in South Korea’s KOSPI, an index representing an exceptionally export-driven economy, far exceeded the gains in other developed markets and underscores this point. For investors in Asia, the threat of escalating trade disputes represents a more immediate and significant danger to corporate profitability than the nuances of Federal Reserve policy. Consequently, positive geopolitical news has the power to unlock more value and trigger a more potent relief rally in Asia than a comparable piece of economic data, positioning the region’s markets as a real-time barometer for U.S.-China diplomacy.

Secondary Factors

While the summit news was the main event, other factors also contributed to the positive mood. Chinese benchmarks were supported by the conclusion of a key Communist Party planning meeting, which wrapped up without any major, disruptive policy announcements, providing a welcome sense of stability for investors.¹⁰ In Japan, newly released data showed that core inflation had risen to 2.9% in September; however, this did not alter widespread expectations that the Bank of Japan would maintain its accommodative interest rate policy at its next meeting.¹⁰ Finally, the positive sentiment flowing from Wall Street, driven by strong U.S. corporate earnings and the subsequent encouraging inflation data, provided a supportive global backdrop for the region’s end-of-week rally.³

India: Six-Day Rally Pauses for Breath

In a notable divergence from the bullish trend seen across most global markets, Indian equities ended the week on a subdued note. The benchmark indices snapped a six-day winning streak on Friday as investors moved to lock in recent gains.¹⁹ The 30-share BSE Sensex fell 344.52 points, or 0.41%, on Friday to close at 84,211.88, while the 50-share NSE Nifty 50 declined by 96.25 points, or 0.37%, to settle at 25,795.15.¹⁹

Despite the Friday pullback, both indices managed to secure modest gains for the holiday-shortened week. The Sensex rose 0.3%, and the Nifty advanced 0.33%, extending a period of positive performance driven by strong festive season sales and foreign investment inflows.²⁰

Primary Driver: Profit-Taking

The main impetus behind Friday’s decline was widespread profit-taking by traders and investors.¹⁹ The market had been on a strong upward run, rallying for six consecutive sessions and gaining approximately 3% to reach 52-week highs on Thursday.¹⁹ This sustained rally had pushed key technical indicators, such as the stochastic oscillator, into “overbought” territory, signalling to many market participants that a period of consolidation or a corrective pullback was becoming increasingly likely.³⁴ The market’s behaviour suggests a healthy and rational response to its own internal dynamics.

Domestic Headwinds

A handful of local factors also contributed to the cautious sentiment and encouraged the profit-taking. Investor hopes for a swift conclusion to a U.S.-India trade deal were tempered by comments from Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, who stated that India does not “do deals in a hurry” or under pressure, prompting some selling.¹⁹ Adding to the cautious mood, a preliminary PMI survey indicated that growth in India’s private sector had slowed to a five-month low in October.²⁰ Furthermore, foreign institutional investors, who had been supporting the rally, turned into net sellers on Thursday, adding to the pressure on the market.¹⁹ The pullback on Friday was led by losses in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and banking sectors, with bellwether stock Hindustan Unilever falling over 3% following the release of its quarterly results.¹⁹

The Indian market’s divergence from the global rally is not a sign of underlying weakness but rather an indication of a maturing market operating on its own internal logic. On a day when the global backdrop was overwhelmingly positive, Indian markets sold off. The reasons cited by analysts were almost entirely domestic or technical in nature: profit-taking after a strong local rally, overbought indicators, and comments from a local government minister. This behaviour demonstrates that local investors are making decisions based on their own market’s valuation and specific political and economic context, rather than simply following the global trend. This capacity for domestic factors to outweigh international sentiment is a hallmark of a deep, sophisticated, and robust equity market.

Oceania: Australia Edges Higher Amid Sector Rotation

The Australian stock market experienced a mixed week of trading, touching a new record high before pulling back to finish with only a modest overall gain.²² The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index fell by 0.2% on Friday to close at 9,019.00.¹⁰ This followed a mid-week surge that saw the index reach an all-time high of 9,115.20.²² For the week, the benchmark managed to gain 0.3%, marking its second consecutive week of advances.²²

A Story of Sector Divergence

The market’s relatively flat weekly performance masked significant and divergent movements between key sectors. A primary theme was profit-taking in the financial and gold mining sectors, which had both enjoyed a strong run-up in recent weeks.²² On Friday, the financials sub-index fell 0.5%, while gold miners dropped 1.6%.²³ The gold sector had a particularly difficult week, with its sub-index losing approximately 9%, its worst weekly performance since July 2022, as investors locked in gains.²²

In stark contrast, the energy sector delivered a powerful performance, gaining 5% for the week and snapping a three-week losing streak.²² This rally was directly fueled by the sharp jump in global oil prices that followed the announcement of new U.S. sanctions against Russia’s major oil producers.¹ The performance of the Australian market highlights its dual identity as both a developed-market economy and a commodity-driven one. It hit a record high mid-week, benefiting from the same positive global risk sentiment that lifted other developed markets. However, its overall weekly gain was muted compared to those seen in the U.S. and Europe. The reason for this lies in the powerful, and often contradictory, sector-specific dynamics of commodities. While energy stocks rallied strongly due to a geopolitical event impacting oil, gold miners sold off heavily as investors took profits. This shows that the Australian market is pulled in multiple directions at once. It cannot rally purely on a “rate cut” narrative because the performance of its large mining and energy sectors is tied to separate global supply-and-demand stories, leading to a more muted and rotational performance.

Investor Caution Ahead of Key Data

A sense of caution pervaded the market as investors looked ahead to the release of crucial domestic inflation data. Australia’s third-quarter inflation report, scheduled for release the following week, was widely seen as a key piece of information that would shape the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next monetary policy decision.²² Adding to this cautious sentiment was preliminary data showing an unexpected contraction in Australian factory activity in October, which tempered some of the enthusiasm from earlier in the week.¹⁰

Conclusion: A Bullish End to a Worrisome Week

The week ending October 24, 2025, will be remembered as a period when investor optimism about the future path of monetary policy decisively triumphed over present-day concerns. The week began with a palpable sense of anxiety, marked by high-profile corporate earnings misses and a spike in market volatility.¹ Yet, a single, cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation report proved powerful enough to unleash a wave of buying that reverberated across the globe.⁷

The resulting rally to record highs in the United States and Europe was a direct consequence of solidified hopes for imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.⁶ In Asia, this global tailwind was significantly amplified by an easing of geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China, which unlocked a powerful relief rally.¹¹ However, the week was not a monolith of uniform gains. Markets in India and Australia demonstrated more nuanced and mature behaviour, reacting to local profit-taking cycles and sector-specific commodity news.²¹ This divergence highlighted that while global macro trends set the tone, regional dynamics continue to play a crucial role in shaping market outcomes.

As the week concludes, the market’s focus shifts squarely to the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve meeting. The overwhelmingly positive reaction to the inflation data has set a very high bar for policymakers. Investors will now be watching not only for the widely expected rate cut but, more importantly, for any forward guidance on the future path of monetary policy. With the third-quarter earnings season still in full swing and the geopolitical landscape remaining fluid, the market’s newfound confidence is set to face its next series of tests in the week ahead.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The information contained herein is based on publicly available data and sources believed to be reliable as of October 24, 2025, but its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. The authors and publishers of this report accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the use of this information.

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