Global Markets Hit New Highs as Rate Cut Hopes Eclipse Shutdown Concerns

The Week’s Global Market Pulse

Global equity markets concluded the first week of October on a wave of powerful optimism, with major indices across the world surging to fresh records. The week’s dominant narrative was a profound “risk-on” sentiment, where investor focus on the prospect of imminent interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve was so intense that it completely overshadowed the economic and political uncertainty stemming from an ongoing U.S. government shutdown.¹ This conviction, bolstered by signs of a softening U.S. labour market, created a dynamic where negative economic news was interpreted as a bullish catalyst for looser monetary policy.

The rally was not solely based on policy speculation; it was underpinned by continued, tangible enthusiasm for the Artificial Intelligence (AI) investment cycle. Major corporate developments in the AI space provided fundamental support, with positive news from U.S. technology leaders creating powerful ripple effects that lifted markets as far away as Japan and South Korea.⁴

Consequently, benchmarks in the United States, Europe, and several key Asian markets posted strong weekly gains. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average in the U.S. repeatedly set new all-time highs, a feat matched by Europe’s STOXX 600 and the UK’s FTSE 100.⁶ In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 was a standout performer, driven by direct participation in the global AI supply chain.⁵ Indian markets broke a prolonged losing streak, buoyed by a pro-growth policy stance from the Reserve Bank of India, while Australian equities logged their best week in months, riding the global updraft.¹¹

United States: Records Tumble Amidst a Data Blackout

The U.S. stock market delivered a paradoxical performance during the week, with major indices scaling unprecedented heights not despite, but in many ways because of, the political and administrative turmoil in Washington. The market’s singular focus on monetary policy allowed it to look past near-term dysfunction and price in a more favourable interest rate environment.

Defying Gravity: A Record-Setting Week

The advance was broad and resilient, marking the seventh winning week in the last nine for the S&P 500 and signalling a powerful and sustained uptrend.¹³ The S&P 500 notched its 31st record close of 2025 and ended the week on a six-day winning streak.¹⁴ The Dow Jones Industrial Average also set consecutive all-time highs, briefly crossing the significant 47,000 threshold during Friday’s trading session.⁶ While the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite saw some profit-taking on Friday, it too posted a strong weekly gain after hitting its own record earlier in the week.⁶ Notably, the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies was the week’s top performer, suggesting a broadening of market participation beyond the mega-cap leaders that have dominated much of the year’s rally.⁶

The Shutdown Paradox: How Bad News Became Good News

The central and most counterintuitive theme of the week was the market’s bullish reaction to the U.S. government shutdown. Wall Street demonstrated remarkable resilience, largely shrugging off the political stalemate that entered its third day by Friday.² The prevailing view among investors, supported by historical precedent, is that government shutdowns are typically short-lived disruptions with minimal long-term economic impact.¹⁶

The shutdown’s most profound market effect was the creation of a “data blackout.” The suspension of operations at key government agencies, including the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), meant that crucial economic reports were not released.¹⁸ Most notably, the September nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate report, the “gold standard” of labour market data scheduled for Friday, was indefinitely delayed.¹⁸ This left investors, and more importantly, the Federal Reserve, without a clear official picture of the economy’s health.

This data vacuum became a powerful catalyst for the rally. Federal Reserve officials, including Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, publicly expressed nervousness about being “blind” to economic developments, particularly regarding inflation, for which there are few reliable private-sector alternatives.¹⁸ The market interpreted this uncertainty as a factor that would force the Fed to adopt a more cautious and dovish stance. The logic was clear: a central bank deprived of its primary data sources would be more inclined to cut interest rates as a precautionary measure to insure against a potential economic slowdown.

This narrative was powerfully reinforced by the private-sector data that was available. The ADP Employment Change report, released on Wednesday, showed a surprising decline of 32,000 jobs, far below the 54,000 gain that was expected and the lowest reading since March 2023.² In response, bond yields fell and market-implied odds of a 25-basis point Fed rate cut at its October meeting surged from 89% to 97%.² This cemented the week’s dominant trading dynamic: bad economic news was unequivocally good news for the stock market, as it was seen as a direct path to the cheaper money that fuels asset price appreciation.²

AI as the Unstoppable Engine

While monetary policy expectations set the week’s tone, the market’s underlying momentum continued to be powered by the transformative theme of Artificial Intelligence. A steady stream of news related to the massive AI infrastructure buildout provided a fundamental justification for the rally in the technology sector.² Major multiyear commitments from corporate giants like Meta and Microsoft to expand their computing capacity by purchasing more chips and building more data centres lifted the entire ecosystem of AI-related companies.¹

The semiconductor sector was a clear leader. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) surged over 5% for the week, hitting a new all-time high and acting as a primary force pushing the broader S&P 500 to its records.² However, the sheer force of this rally also began to raise questions about its sustainability. The persistent buying pushed the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a measure of momentum, on the SOX to a level of 83. This was the highest reading since 2011, signalling technically “overbought” conditions and increasing the probability of a near-term consolidation or pullback.²

A Friday Divergence: Cracks in the Tech Rally?

The week’s seemingly unstoppable rally showed some signs of nuance on Friday. A clear divergence emerged in the market, with the blue-chip Dow advancing while the tech-heavy Nasdaq retreated from its record high, breaking a five-day streak where all major indices had closed in the green.⁶

This split performance was driven by a midday reversal in some of the week’s most popular AI-related names, suggesting a bout of profit-taking heading into the weekend.² A prominent decliner was Palantir Technologies (PLTR), which fell 7.5% following a Reuters report detailing an internal U.S. Army memo that pointed to vulnerabilities in a new battlefield communications network the company is helping to deploy.¹⁸ The news served as a reminder that even companies at the heart of the AI boom are not immune to company-specific risks.

As capital rotated out of some high-flying tech names, it found a home elsewhere. The healthcare sector showed notable strength, with health insurer Humana (HUM) soaring nearly 11% to become the S&P 500’s top performer on Friday after affirming its financial outlook. The positive news also lifted its peers, with Centene (CNC) and Cigna (CI) adding 5.1% and 4.7%, respectively.¹⁸ This rotation suggested a market that, while still bullish, was beginning to look for value beyond the most crowded trades.

Europe: Riding Wall Street’s Bullish Coattails

European stock markets enjoyed their best week in months, propelled higher by the powerful bullish sentiment flowing across the Atlantic. The optimism surrounding U.S. monetary policy and the global technology rally proved more than enough to offset a mixed bag of local economic data.

A Banner Week Across the Continent

The gains were widespread and significant across the region’s major bourses. The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.5% on Friday, capping a weekly advance of 2.8%—its strongest performance since April.⁷ In the United Kingdom, London’s FTSE 100 index climbed to a new all-time high, finishing the week with a gain of 2.2%.⁸ Germany’s DAX 40 index was on track for a weekly gain of over 3%, its largest since early August, after rising for a sixth consecutive session on Friday.¹⁷ In France, the CAC 40 also advanced, closing at 8,080.91 and having reached its highest level since late March earlier in the week.⁴

Transatlantic Tailwinds and Local Drivers

The primary engine for Europe’s rally was unequivocally the expectation of looser monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve. European investors, like their American counterparts, embraced the “risk-on” mood fueled by increased bets on a U.S. rate cut.⁷ This sentiment was amplified by the ongoing global rally in technology stocks, which boosted European firms involved in the semiconductor and AI supply chains.¹⁷

The advance was led by the healthcare and basic resources sectors.⁷ On Friday, healthcare giants AstraZeneca and Novo Nordisk posted gains of 1.6% and 2.1%, respectively.⁷ The banking sector also performed strongly across the continent. Austrian lender Raiffeisen Bank was a top gainer on the STOXX 600, jumping 7.4%, while in the UK, major banks including NatWest and HSBC posted firm gains.⁷

Local economic data played a secondary and largely overlooked role. A flash estimate for September showed that annual inflation in the Euro area was expected to tick up to 2.2% from 2.0% in August, while the unemployment rate edged higher to 6.3% in August.²⁵ More positively for the inflation outlook, producer prices in the Eurozone fell 0.6% year-on-year in August, marking their first decline in nine months, driven by a sharp drop in energy costs.²⁶ The market’s ability to absorb the slightly higher consumer inflation figure while rallying underscores the dominance of the U.S. monetary policy narrative. The current environment shows European markets acting in close concert with their U.S. peers, where the positive sentiment from Wall Street is amplified across the Atlantic, overriding local economic crosscurrents.

Asia-Pacific: A Region of Tech-Fueled Rallies and Holiday Closures

The trading week across the Asia-Pacific region was characterised by a mix of strong, technology-driven gains in markets that were open and muted activity elsewhere due to major public holidays. The global AI investment theme proved to be a powerful and direct catalyst for outperformance in Japan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.

Japan’s Nikkei Leads the Charge

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index was a regional standout. The market surged on Friday, closing nearly 1.9% higher to finish the week at 45,769.50.⁴ The rally was driven squarely by technology stocks, ignited by a major announcement from Japanese industrial and tech giant Hitachi. The company’s shares soared over 10% after it revealed a strategic partnership with U.S.-based OpenAI, a leader in generative AI.⁴

This development had a broad impact, as it followed closely on news from earlier in the week that South Korean memory chip makers Samsung and SK Hynix had reached a preliminary deal to supply critical components for OpenAI’s ambitious “Stargate” AI supercomputer project.⁵ Together, these announcements validated the critical role of Japanese and South Korean technology firms in the global AI supply chain, sparking a rally in related stocks across the region. The market’s enthusiasm was so strong that it easily brushed aside domestic data showing that Japan’s unemployment rate had risen to a 13-month high in August.⁴ Adding to the positive sentiment, a speech on Friday by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda was interpreted as cautious on the timing of any future interest rate hikes, signalling to investors that the central bank’s accommodative policy stance would likely remain in place for the near future.²⁹

Greater China: A Tale of Two Markets

Activity in Greater China was split. Markets in mainland China, including the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, were closed for the entirety of the Golden Week national holiday, which runs from October 1 to October 8.⁴ This removed a significant volume of trading and capital flow from the region.

In contrast, the Hong Kong market, which was only closed for a single day, experienced a powerful rally. The Hang Seng Index surged 3.88% for the week, closing at 27,140.92.⁹ The week’s star performer was the Hang Seng TECH Index, which soared an impressive 6.9%.⁹ The gains were driven by the same global themes of Fed rate cut expectations and AI-fueled optimism that propelled other markets. Gold-related stocks were also exceptionally strong performers, with Zijin Gold International rocketing nearly 90% on the week as the price of bullion approached record highs amid expectations of a weaker U.S. dollar and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.⁹

South Korea’s Chip-Powered Surge

South Korea’s KOSPI index, which was also subject to a holiday closure during the week, posted a strong gain of 2.7% on Friday to reach 3,549.⁵ The rally was almost entirely attributable to the positive news flow surrounding its world-leading semiconductor companies. The announcement of the preliminary supply deal between Samsung, SK Hynix, and OpenAI sent a powerful signal about the surging demand for the specialised high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips essential for training and running advanced AI models, cementing South Korea’s indispensable position in the global AI hardware ecosystem.⁵

India: Domestic Policy Steers Markets to Weekly Gains

Indian equity markets broke a prolonged losing streak in a holiday-shortened week, with a decidedly pro-growth and dovish policy announcement from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) providing a powerful domestic catalyst that lifted investor sentiment.

A Holiday-Shortened Week Ends on a High

After suffering an eight-session losing streak—the longest in seven months—both of India’s benchmark indices finished the week with solid gains.¹¹ For the week, the BSE Sensex climbed 0.97% (or 780.71 points), a performance mirrored by the NSE Nifty 50, which also rose 0.97%.³² The market was closed on Thursday, October 2, for national holidays.³³

On Friday, the market extended its gains for a second consecutive day. The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 223.86 points (0.28%) to settle at 81,207.17, while the 50-share NSE Nifty 50 added 57.95 points (0.23%) to close at 24,894.25.³²

The RBI’s Pro-Growth Pause

The week’s pivotal event was the conclusion of the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Wednesday, October 1. The central bank delivered a “dovish pause” that was warmly received by the market. The MPC voted unanimously to keep its key policy repo rate unchanged at 5.5% and maintained its “neutral” stance.³⁶

More importantly, the RBI provided a significant boost to confidence by upgrading its economic outlook. It raised its GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year (2025-26) to 6.8%, up from its previous estimate of 6.5%.³⁹ At the same time, it lowered its forecast for consumer price inflation for the year to 2.6% from 3.1%, citing factors like a good monsoon season and the disinflationary impact of recent GST reforms.³⁸

Accompanying this optimistic outlook was a suite of regulatory announcements aimed at boosting credit growth and capital market activity. The RBI unveiled measures to ease lending norms, including raising the limits on loans against shares and for IPO financing, and creating a framework to allow banks to fund corporate acquisitions.³⁸ The market’s reaction was immediate and overwhelmingly positive. The Sensex surged over 700 points on Wednesday, decisively snapping its losing streak, with banking stocks emerging as particular beneficiaries of the news.¹¹

Sector Spotlight and Investor Flows

The metal sector was a standout performer on Friday, with the BSE metal index jumping 1.85%.³³ Tata Steel was the top gainer on the Sensex, climbing 3.4%. This strong performance was attributed to reports that the European Union was considering an increase in tariffs and a reduction in quotas for steel imports, a move that could benefit Tata Steel’s significant European operations.⁴⁴

Underlying the market’s surface was a notable divergence in investor behaviour. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued to be net sellers of Indian equities, a trend that has persisted for months and contributed to the market’s recent weakness.⁴⁶ On Wednesday, FIIs sold equities worth ₹1,605.20 crore. However, this selling pressure was more than absorbed by robust demand from Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), who made net purchases of ₹2,916.14 crore on the same day, underscoring the growing influence of local capital in supporting the market.³²

Oceania: Australia Follows the Global Updraft

The Australian stock market recorded its strongest week since April, as powerful bullish tailwinds from global markets combined with a positive reinterpretation of the domestic central bank’s policy stance.

The S&P/ASX 200 index climbed 2.3% over the week, closing on Friday with a 0.5% gain to finish at 8,987, its highest level in five weeks.⁴ The primary catalyst for the rally was the strong positive lead from Wall Street, where optimism about impending U.S. rate cuts overshadowed all other concerns.¹²

The gains in Australia were broad-based, with the health, financial, industrial, and materials sectors all contributing positively.⁴⁷ Technology stocks also had a strong week, benefiting from the global enthusiasm for the AI theme and tracking their U.S. peers higher.¹²

A key local factor was the market’s evolving interpretation of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy. At its meeting on September 30, the RBA board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 3.60%.⁴⁹ While a central bank holding rates steady could be viewed as a headwind, investors appeared to adopt a more nuanced and bullish perspective. The market consensus was that the RBA’s reluctance to cut rates was not a sign of concern about inflation, but rather a reflection of confidence in the underlying strength of the domestic economy. This reframing turned a neutral policy decision into a positive signal for equities.⁴⁷

The market’s advance came amidst mixed signals from commodity markets, which are a crucial driver for the Australian economy. Crude oil prices fell sharply during the week, and iron ore prices dipped slightly following reports that China had temporarily halted purchases from mining giant BHP.⁴⁷ However, these declines were offset by rising prices for gold and other industrial metals, which provided support for the mining sector.⁴⁸ The Australian dollar also strengthened during the week, rising to approximately US$0.66, supported by the broadly weaker U.S. dollar and the RBA’s comparatively hawkish commentary.⁴⁸

Conclusion: The Path Forward

The first week of October delivered a powerful and unified message from global financial markets: the prospect of cheaper money, particularly from the U.S. Federal Reserve, remains the single most dominant driver of investor sentiment. The collective rally to new all-time highs in the face of a U.S. government shutdown, a blackout of official economic data, and mixed regional fundamentals demonstrates the market’s current willingness to interpret nearly all news through a bullish, policy-focused lens.

Beneath this overarching macro theme, the AI investment cycle continues to prove itself as a potent and durable fundamental force. The direct and immediate impact of strategic decisions at a single U.S. AI firm on the stock markets of its hardware partners in Asia highlights the deeply interconnected and global nature of this technological transformation.

Looking ahead, while the mood is undeniably euphoric, several factors warrant caution. The market’s “bad news is good news” narrative could be severely tested when the delayed U.S. economic data is eventually released, particularly if it reveals a more resilient economy than is currently priced in. Furthermore, clear technical signals of overbought conditions in key leading sectors, such as semiconductors, suggest that the relentless upward momentum could be due for a period of consolidation or increased volatility. The upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season will serve as the next crucial test, determining whether company fundamentals can ultimately validate the market’s record-setting valuations.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The information and analysis contained herein are based on sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. All investment decisions involve risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. The views expressed in this article are subject to change without notice.

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