The Week Optimism Died? AI Jitters and Fed Uncertainty Halt Global Rally

The Week in Markets

The week ending November 14, 2025, will be remembered as a sharp, painful turning point for global markets. A wave of optimism that began the week, sparked by the long-awaited end of a record-long U.S. government shutdown ¹, evaporated by Thursday. What followed was a “messy ride” ¹ that degenerated into a full-blown global sell-off, wiping out recent gains and shaking investor confidence to its core.⁵

The market narrative collapsed under the weight of three interconnected themes. First, the end of the U.S. shutdown created a new crisis: a “data blackout” ⁷ of key inflation and jobs reports, leaving policymakers and investors flying blind. Second, this data vacuum caused investors’ hopes for a December interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve to collapse, with market-implied odds falling from over 70% to a 50/50 toss-up.⁹

Third, this uncertainty provided the backdrop for a sudden “crisis of confidence” in the high-flying Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector.² A massive sell-off in AI-leader Nvidia, sparked by news that tech-investing giant SoftBank had sold its entire stake ¹¹, triggered a global panic over “stretched valuations”.¹² This U.S.-driven anxiety was only amplified by genuinely weak new economic data from China, which reported a record slump in fixed-asset investment ¹¹, and stagnant 0% growth in Europe’s economic powerhouses, Germany and Italy.¹⁴

In a stark sign of a fractured global picture, two regions defied the trend. India’s stock market rallied 1.6% ¹⁵, driven by positive domestic political news. Conversely, Australia’s market slumped 1.7% ¹⁶, precisely because its own domestic economic data was too strong, killing its local hopes for rate cuts.

Main Driver 1: Relief Turns to Anxiety as U.S. Data Blackout Clouds Fed Path

The Good News That Wasn’t

The week’s dominant story was the conclusion of the record-breaking 43-day partial U.S. government shutdown.¹ On Wednesday, President Donald Trump signed a funding bill to reopen the government until January 30.³ Global markets, which had been anxious about the closure, initially cheered the news. Stock markets from Wall Street to Asia rallied on the breakthrough, hopeful that stability was returning.²

The “Shutdown Hangover”

This relief, however, was dangerously short-lived. The “good news” of the reopening paradoxically became the week’s primary negative driver. The 43-day shutdown had furloughed federal workers at key data agencies, most notably the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS).⁸

The consequence was a “data blackout”.⁷ The government’s all-important October Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report, which was scheduled for release on Thursday, was officially delayed.⁷ More alarmingly, the White House warned that the October CPI and jobs reports would “likely never” be released at all, leaving a permanent, unfillable gap in the economic record.¹⁰

The Fed is Left “Flying Blind”

This data blackout has created a crisis of uncertainty for the U.S. Federal Reserve, and by extension, for global markets. The entire 2025 stock market rally has been built on a single, simple assumption: that inflation is cooling, and the Fed will soon respond by cutting interest rates.⁹

The Federal Reserve, however, cannot make these multi-trillion-dollar decisions based on assumptions. It is a data-driven institution that must use official inflation and employment reports to justify its policies.⁸ With those reports now missing, the Fed is left “flying blind” ²² ahead of its critical December policy meeting. It has no official justification to cut rates, even if the economy is genuinely slowing down. This “significant gap” ¹⁰ in the data creates a vacuum of uncertainty—a condition markets hate even more than confirmed bad news.

The Market’s Violent Repricing

Investors, realising the Fed’s hands are tied, panicked and rapidly “re-priced” their bets on a December rate cut. Market-implied odds for a cut, which stood at nearly 70% a week earlier, collapsed to a mere 50-54%.⁹

This fear was amplified by “hawkish” comments from Fed officials, who (perhaps sensing the market’s desperation) began managing expectations. They signalled a “high bar” for any further monetary easing, further dashing hopes.¹ This sudden shift in rate expectations sent bond yields, which move opposite to price, jumping. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed back to 4.10% ⁹, putting direct downward pressure on stock valuations.

Main Driver 2: The Accelerant: An ‘AI Crisis of Confidence’ Shakes Global Tech

The Catalyst for the Sell-Off

If the Federal Reserve uncertainty made the market fragile, the tech sell-off was the hammer that shattered it. A “crisis of confidence” ² in the high-flying Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector, which has been the market’s primary engine for all of 2025 ²⁰, suddenly materialised.

The panic was reportedly sparked by a single, seismic catalyst: news that Japan’s SoftBank, one of the world’s largest and most aggressive technology investors, had sold its entire stake in Nvidia.¹¹

When a “Whale” Sells, Everyone Panics

This event cannot be overstated. Nvidia is not just a stock; it is the “market barometer” for the entire AI theme ²⁰ and the “market’s most influential beneficiary of the AI boom”.⁶ Its stock, which has more than doubled in four of the last five years ⁶, has been the poster child for the rally.

When a “whale” like SoftBank liquidates its entire position in the undisputed leader of the market’s hottest trend, it sends a profound and terrifying signal. The market interpreted this action as SoftBank declaring that the “AI bubble” was popping, or at the very least, that valuations had become dangerously “stretched” ¹² and that future returns were no longer guaranteed.¹¹

This single move sparked a global, contagious sell-off.⁶ It was as if a fire alarm had been pulled in a crowded theatre; every other investor was immediately forced to reassess their own bullish AI positions.²³

The Global Contagion

The sell-off was not a U.S.-only event. It instantly spread through the entire global AI supply chain, revealing just how interconnected the sector is.

• In the United States: Nvidia fell sharply.⁶ The panic immediately dragged down other tech darlings, including Broadcom, Tesla, Palantir, and Arm Holdings.¹⁸ The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index plunged 2.3% on Thursday, its worst day in weeks.³
• In Asia: The damage was even more severe, hitting the very companies that manufacture the components for the AI boom.

• Japan: SoftBank itself, the instigator of the panic, saw its own stock plunge between 5.7% and 6.6%.⁶ Other Japanese tech firms, like Tokyo Electron and Advantest, were dragged down with it.²³
• South Korea: The Kospi index was hammered, falling 3.2%.²⁵ The reason was simple: its two largest companies are critical AI suppliers. Samsung Electronics, a key chipmaker, fell between 4.1% and 5.5%.⁶ SK Hynix, another global chipmaker, was devastated, plunging between 6.4% and 8.5%.⁶
• Taiwan: Chip-manufacturing giant Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) also dropped, completing the rout of the AI supply chain.¹¹

Market Spotlight: United States

A Week of Whiplash

The U.S. market experienced extreme volatility, perfectly capturing the war between early-week optimism and late-week panic. After rallying on the shutdown news ², markets were hit by a brutal sell-off on Thursday, one of the worst trading days since April.¹⁸ In that single session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost nearly 800 points ¹⁸, and the S&P 500 lost a staggering $800 billion in market value.²¹

A “Messy” Friday

Friday’s trading session was chaotic.¹ Stocks opened sharply lower, extending Thursday’s losses as the panic continued.⁶ However, in a sign of extreme indecision, a late-day rebound in the battered-down tech sector—including Nvidia itself—managed to erase the day’s losses for the Nasdaq and save the broader indices from a disastrous week.⁶

The Weekly Tally

This volatility led to a mixed and highly divergent weekly result. The final numbers cut through the noise of the daily chaos to tell the week’s true story: investors fled technology (Nasdaq) but had nowhere else to go (S&P 500 flat). The “everything rally” ²⁸, where all assets rise together, is officially over.

Other Market Movers

• Corporate: The Walt Disney Co. was a major drag on the market, its stock sliding 8.4%.⁹ The drop came after the media giant reported worse-than-expected revenue, revealing ongoing, significant declines in its legacy linear TV business.¹⁸
• Commodities: Reflecting the deep uncertainty, precious metals had a strong week. Gold prices recovered from their recent losses ¹, though they pulled back from their highs on Friday as hawkish Fed talk briefly strengthened the dollar.²² Silver was the standout performer, gaining 5.36% for the week.²⁹

Market Spotlight: Europe

Caught in the Crossfire

European markets were caught in the crossfire of the two fears imported from the U.S.: the global tech sell-off and the evaporating hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut.⁶

Domestic Woes: A Stagnant Economy

This external shock hit a European economy that was already on weak footing. New data released Friday confirmed the stagnation. The Eurozone’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter grew by a mere 0.2%.¹⁴ Most alarmingly, the “engines” of Europe, Germany and Italy, both reported 0.0% growth.¹⁴ This confirmation of a stagnant economy gave investors no reason to buy the dip.

Domestic Woes: UK Political Uncertainty

The UK’s FTSE 100 was hit by its own domestic drama, compounding the global gloom. The index fell 1.1% on Friday ¹¹ following reports that Chancellor Rachel Reeves was abandoning plans to raise income tax in the upcoming budget.¹¹

Why “No Tax Hikes” Was Bad News

Paradoxically, the news of cancelling a tax hike was taken as a negative by the market. Normally, avoiding tax hikes is good for stocks. In this case, however, the UK government is running a large budget deficit (a “fiscal hole”). The market had been counting on those tax hikes to plug that hole and show the government was credible.

The sudden U-turn created massive uncertainty about the government’s credibility and its plan to pay its bills.³² This uncertainty spooked the UK bond market, sending gilt yields (the government’s borrowing costs) soaring.³² This, in turn, hammered the shares of major UK banks like Barclays and Lloyds, which are sensitive to such instability.¹¹

The Weekly Tally

The late-week sell-off defined the weekly performance. The final numbers show a clear divergence: the “value” heavy, less-tech-focused UK market (FTSE 100) held up for the week, much like the Dow. Meanwhile, the more growth- and tech-sensitive continental indices (DAX, CAC 40) fell hard, mirroring the Nasdaq’s underperformance.

Market Spotlight: Asia

A “Double Whammy” for Asia

Asian markets were hit from two directions simultaneously: the global tech/AI contagion spreading from the U.S. ¹¹ and new, deeply worrying economic data from within its own region, specifically China.¹¹

China’s Economic Slump

This was a major global story that rattled investors. New economic data released Friday showed China’s economy is cooling much faster than anyone had anticipated.¹¹

• Factory Output: Grew at a 14-month low of just 4.9%, missing expectations.⁶
• Fixed-Asset Investment: This was the most shocking number. It shrank 1.7% in the first 10 months of the year, a record decline.¹¹

This data stoked immediate fears of a global economic slowdown, as China remains the world’s factory. In response, China’s Shanghai Composite index fell 0.97% on Friday ³⁸, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index plunged 1.9%.¹³

The Weekly Number Hides the Panic

A critical analysis of the weekly data reveals a hidden trap. Looking at the weekly performance for Japan and Hong Kong, one might conclude it was a calm week. This is incorrect. The final weekly number hides the sharp, panicked reversal that happened late in the week.

• Hong Kong (Hang Seng): Despite Friday’s 1.9% plunge, the index had been on a four-day winning streak. This early strength meant it actually finished the week up 1.3%.¹³
• Japan (Nikkei 225): Japan’s market rallied hard early in the week on the U.S. shutdown news.⁴ On Friday, it was hammered by the tech sell-off, falling 1.8%.¹¹ The main driver was the 5.7% to 6.6% plunge in SoftBank’s stock following its Nvidia sale.⁶ But like Hong Kong, the early-week rally was so large that the Nikkei finished the week up 0.2%.²³
• South Korea (Kospi): The Kospi was the region’s clear victim, with no rally to cushion the blow. It plunged 3.2% to 3.8% on Friday ⁶ as its critical AI supply-chain giants, Samsung and SK Hynix, were battered by the Nvidia-led sell-off.²⁵

Market Spotlight: India (The Great Outperformer)

Defying the Global Gloom

In a week of global red, India’s market was a sea of green. In a stunning display of divergence, the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 rose 1.6% each for the week, snapping a two-week losing streak.¹⁵

A Purely Domestic Story

India was not immune to the global panic. On Friday, the market opened sharply lower, tracking the global sell-off as Asian markets plunged.¹⁵ But what happened next demonstrates a market completely detached from the global narrative.

The “Bihar Boost” Overpowers Global Fear

The Sensex was trading deep in the red for most of Friday.¹⁵ During the trading session, however, results from the Bihar state election began to be released. The trends showed a decisive, better-than-expected victory for the ruling NDA party.¹⁵

Investors, who prize political stability above all, interpreted this strong domestic political news as a major positive. This triggered a “fag-end buying” spree ¹⁵ in the final hours of trading. This wave of domestic optimism was so strong that it completely overpowered the global panic. The Sensex reversed its entire day’s losses, rebounding over 500 points from its session low to close in the green.¹⁵

Supportive Economic Backdrop

This optimism is built on a solid economic foundation. New data showed retail (CPI) inflation for October dropped to a historic low of 0.25%.⁴³ While some analysts noted this was a “statistical anomaly” due to base effects ⁴⁵, the headline number is what matters. Wholesale (WPI) inflation was also negative at -1.21%.⁴⁶

This is the key divergence. This historic low inflation gives the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) a clear green light to cut interest rates in December.⁴³ This is the exact opposite of the situation in the U.S. and Australia, where rate cut hopes are dying. The RBI was also active elsewhere, easing repayment rules for exporters ⁵⁰ and buying government bonds to add liquidity to the system.⁵¹

Market Spotlight: Oceania (The Great Underperformer)

Australia’s Hopes Are Dashed

If India’s market rallied on its own domestic news, Australia’s market fell for the very same reason. The S&P/ASX 200 dropped 1.5% to 1.7% for the week ¹, marking its third consecutive weekly loss.¹⁶

The Driver: “Good News” is “Bad News”

The story in Australia was entirely about its central bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Like their U.S. counterparts, Australian investors were desperately hoping for RBA rate cuts to support the market.

On Thursday, new economic data was released. For the economy, the news was “good.” The data showed the economy is surprisingly strong. Employment jumped by 42,000 in October, and the unemployment rate fell from 4.5% to 4.3%.⁵³ This was much stronger than anyone had predicted.

For the stock market, this “good” news was “terrible” news. It means the economy is running too hot for the RBA to justify cutting interest rates. This strong jobs report, combined with recent hot inflation data, convinced the market that the RBA’s easing cycle is over.⁵² One of Australia’s “Big Four” banks, NAB, officially abandoned its forecast for any more rate cuts in this cycle.⁵⁴

The market carnage was swift. The sell-off was concentrated in the very sectors that are most sensitive to high interest rates: Financials (the “Big Four” banks) and Technology.¹⁶

Conclusion: A Market at a Crossroads

The “Everything Rally” Stalls

This week’s volatile action has delivered a powerful lesson. The “everything rally” ²⁸, which had been lifting all assets on a tide of easy optimism, has come to a sudden halt. The market’s entire tone has shifted from confidence to high alert.

The Catalyst and the Cracks

The end of the U.S. government shutdown was the ironic catalyst. It failed to provide relief and instead created a “data fog” ¹ that shattered the market’s primary narrative: the “Fed pivot” to rate cuts. This uncertainty exposed the cracks that were already present just beneath the surface:

1. Stretched Valuations: The AI and tech sector was priced for perfection. The SoftBank sale ¹¹ was a reminder of how quickly that confidence can shatter.
2. Global Growth Fears: The slowdown is no longer a forecast; it is in the data. The record slump in Chinese investment ¹¹ and the 0% growth in Europe ¹⁴ are real.
3. Policy Divergence: The world’s central banks are no longer moving in lockstep. The Fed is data-blind and hesitant. The RBA in Australia is grounded by a hot economy. The RBI in India, by contrast, has a clear runway to cut. This divergence will create new, complex risks and opportunities.

Final Thought

The market is no longer being lifted by a single, simple tide of “rate cut hopes.” Investors are being forced to look at fundamentals again, and they are seeing a complex, diverging, and far more dangerous picture than they were willing to admit just one week ago.

Disclaimer

This report is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. The information contained herein is based on sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed.

The views and opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in stock markets involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.

You should not rely on this report as the sole basis for any investment decision. Before making any investment, you should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax advisor, and legal professional to assess your own financial situation and to determine whether an investment is appropriate for you. The authors and publishers of this report assume no liability for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of this information.

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