Global Markets Week in Review: Tariff Tremors and Rate Speculation Rattle Equities

Executive Summary: A Week of Regional Divergence

The week ending September 26, 2025, was a study in contrasts, as global equity markets grappled with the dual pressures of renewed U.S. trade protectionism and intense speculation over the future path of monetary policy. A late-week announcement of steep U.S. tariffs, primarily targeting pharmaceuticals, sent targeted shockwaves through global supply chains, punishing markets heavily exposed to those sectors, like India. Meanwhile, a key U.S. inflation report that met expectations provided a crucial pillar of support, keeping hopes for further Federal Reserve rate cuts alive and preventing a broader market rout. This dynamic created a clear divergence in performance: commodity-driven markets like Australia proved resilient, while export-oriented economies in Asia and India faced significant headwinds. U.S. markets ended the week with minor losses after a late recovery, while European indices remained largely flat, caught between the crosscurrents.

Table 1: Weekly Performance of Major Global Indices (Week Ending Sep 26, 2025)

United States: Inflation Data Steadies Nerves Amid New Tariff Threats

U.S. equity markets concluded a volatile week with modest losses, as a crucial inflation report provided just enough reassurance to offset concerns stemming from a new wave of trade tariffs. The week began on a high note, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite all setting new all-time highs on Monday.¹ However, this momentum faded, leading to a three-day losing streak mid-week before a decisive rally on Friday snapped the decline and trimmed the week’s losses.³

For the week, the S&P 500 closed at 6,643.70, down 0.3%.³ The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 46,247.29, posting a marginal loss of 0.1%.³ The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite was the relative underperformer, falling 0.7% to 22,484.07, while the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies declined 0.6%, marking its first weekly loss since early August.³

The Inflation Tightrope Walk

The primary catalyst for Friday’s market recovery was the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. The report showed that core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose at an annual rate of 2.9% in August. This figure was unchanged from July and, critically, landed exactly in line with economists’ consensus forecasts.⁴

The market’s enthusiastic response to an inflation reading that merely met expectations reveals a crucial dynamic: investors are currently prioritising predictability over outright low inflation. The 2.9% rate remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, but by avoiding a negative surprise, the report kept the prevailing narrative intact. It calmed fears that accelerating inflation would force the central bank into a more aggressive, hawkish stance, thereby preserving market expectations for one or two more quarter-point interest rate cuts before the end of the year.⁴ This sentiment, however, was not without its counterpoints. Throughout the week, several Fed officials issued cautious statements, warning against further monetary easing while inflation remains persistently high, creating a push-pull effect on investor confidence.⁶

Trump’s New Tariffs: A Targeted Strike

Adding to the complex macro picture, President Donald Trump announced a new set of tariffs late Thursday, scheduled to take effect on October 1. The new levies included a 100% tax on imported branded or patented pharmaceuticals, a 25% tariff on heavy-duty trucks, a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, and a 30% tariff on upholstered furniture.⁴

The market’s reaction to this announcement demonstrates a significant evolution in how investors process trade policy threats. Instead of a broad-based, risk-off sell-off driven by generalised fears of a “trade war,” the response was highly specific and surgical. This suggests the market is now adept at discerning the likely winners and losers from targeted protectionist measures. For instance, shares of Paccar, the U.S. manufacturer of Peterbilt and Kenworth trucks, jumped more than 5% on the news that its foreign competitors would face steep new taxes.⁴ Similarly, large domestic pharmaceutical companies like Eli Lilly and Pfizer posted modest gains.⁴ Conversely, companies heavily reliant on furniture imports were hit hard. High-end retailer RH saw its stock fall 4.2%, while Williams-Sonoma experienced significant volatility as investors scrambled to assess the impact on its supply chain and margins.²

This sophisticated, rapid repricing of risk at the company and sector level indicates that trade policy is now being viewed less as a systemic risk and more as a catalyst for sector rotation and identifying specific investment opportunities. In corporate news that underscored the importance of fundamentals, Costco Wholesale fell 2.9% despite reporting stronger-than-expected profits. The decline was attributed to a slight slowdown in membership renewal rates and underlying revenue growth that fell short of analyst expectations, a reminder that even in a complex macro environment, company-specific performance remains a critical driver of stock prices.²

Economic Backdrop: A Resilient but Slowing Economy

The week’s economic data painted a picture of a U.S. economy that remains resilient but is showing signs of cooling. The third and final estimate of second-quarter GDP growth was revised upward to a robust 3.8% annualised rate, surpassing expectations and driven primarily by strong consumer spending.⁶ This strength contrasted with S&P Global’s flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for September, which showed a modest deceleration in business activity growth in both the manufacturing and services sectors. While both readings remained above the 50-point threshold indicating expansion, the slowdown aligns with the narrative of a cooling economy, providing further justification for the Federal Reserve’s cautious, data-dependent approach to future rate adjustments.⁶

Europe: Markets Tread Water as Investors Weigh Policy and Trade Tensions

European stock markets ended the week largely unchanged, as investors balanced the negative drag from renewed U.S. trade jitters against a mixed bag of regional economic data and central bank actions. The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 index finished the week almost perfectly flat, inching up just 0.07% to close at 554.52.⁶ This muted headline performance, however, masked a slightly more positive tone in several of the continent’s major national bourses. Germany’s DAX rose 0.42%, France’s CAC 40 added 0.22%, the UK’s FTSE 100 gained 0.74%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB was a notable outperformer, climbing 0.79% for the week.⁶

The U.S. Tariff Ripple Effect

The primary source of anxiety for European investors was the U.S. tariff announcement, particularly the 100% levy threatened on imported branded pharmaceuticals.¹⁵ This created significant uncertainty for the region’s powerful healthcare sector. European nations, especially Ireland, Switzerland, and Germany, are global leaders in the export of high-value, patented medicines from corporate giants like Roche, Novartis, and Sanofi, placing them directly in the crosshairs of the new policy.¹⁷

In response, European Union officials quickly pushed back, arguing that a recently formalised U.S.-EU trade framework agreement explicitly caps tariffs on pharmaceutical products at 15%.¹⁰ This rebuttal introduced a degree of ambiguity, leaving investors to weigh the aggressive rhetoric from the White House against the potential legal protection of a pre-existing agreement. The STOXX 600’s flat performance, rather than a sharp decline, suggests the market did not fully price in the 100% tariff threat. The existence of the framework agreement appears to have acted as a crucial psychological and legal buffer, leading investors to price in a higher probability of a negotiated outcome closer to the 15% level. This pre-existing framework, even if contested, significantly mitigated the market impact of the new protectionist threat by providing a baseline for expectations and a foundation for diplomatic pushback.

The uncertainty still took a toll on specific sectors. European healthcare stocks felt the pressure throughout the week.¹⁵ In contrast, financial stocks were among the standout performers in markets like France, with BNP Paribas, Crédit Agricole, and AXA all posting gains, suggesting a rotation by investors away from trade-exposed sectors and into more domestically focused industries.¹⁶

Divergent Monetary Policy and Mixed Economic Signals

The flat weekly close for the pan-European index, combined with mixed national performances and conflicting economic data, points to a market lacking a clear directional catalyst. It is a market being pulled in multiple directions simultaneously. On the monetary policy front, actions within Europe were divergent. Sweden’s Riksbank delivered its third interest rate cut of the year, lowering its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 1.75% to support economic growth.⁶ In contrast, the Swiss National Bank held its key interest rate steady at 0%, as was widely expected.⁶

Economic data further clouded the picture. The flash Eurozone Composite PMI for September indicated modest growth, largely driven by a resilient services sector, while the manufacturing sector remained weak.⁶ Confidence surveys from Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, sent conflicting signals: the Ifo Institute’s measure of business sentiment suffered an unexpectedly sharp drop, while a separate GfK survey indicated that consumer confidence was becoming slightly less pessimistic.⁶ This mix of pressures—negative from U.S. trade jitters and weak German business sentiment, positive from resilient services data and hopes of a limited tariff impact—resulted in a pan-European index that ultimately went nowhere. This suggests investors are largely in a “wait-and-see” mode, unwilling to commit significant capital decisively in or out of the region without a stronger, more unified signal on either the trade or economic front.

Asia: Tariff Shockwaves Ripple Across Major Indices

Asian equity markets broadly declined, capping a negative week as the fresh U.S. tariff announcements hit sentiment hard across the region’s export-dependent economies.¹⁹ The selling pressure was most pronounced on Friday, following the overnight news from Washington.

For the week, Japan’s Nikkei 225 posted a modest loss of approximately 0.3%, closing Friday at 45,354.99 after a 0.87% drop on the final day of trading.²⁰ Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 1.35% on Friday to end at 26,128.20, bringing its weekly loss to 1.71%.²¹ In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite index dropped 0.65% on Friday to close at 3,828.11.²⁴ The region’s biggest loser was South Korea’s KOSPI, which tumbled 2.5% on Friday alone, a reflection of its acute sensitivity to U.S. trade policy.²⁰

Japan: A Double Whammy of Tariffs and Inflation

The Japanese market found itself caught in a uniquely challenging crossfire, facing both an external demand shock from U.S. tariffs and an internal policy inflection point driven by persistent domestic inflation. The tariff news directly hit Japanese pharmaceutical exporters, with shares of companies like Chugai Pharmaceutical and Sumitomo Pharma sinking on Friday.²⁰ The broader market was also weighed down by uncertainty over how the tariffs would ultimately impact the profitability of Japan’s vast export sector.²⁵

Compounding this external pressure was fresh domestic inflation data. The closely watched consumer price index for the Tokyo area showed core inflation at 2.5% year-on-year in September. While this was slightly below the consensus forecast of 2.8%, it marked another month above the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2% target.²⁰ This persistent inflation, coupled with recent statements from the central bank, has fueled growing speculation that the BoJ may be preparing to raise interest rates later this year, ending its long-standing ultra-easy monetary policy.²⁰ This confluence of events presents a difficult scenario for investors. The market’s weakness reflects a deeper concern that the BoJ may be forced into a policy error—tightening monetary conditions and raising borrowing costs just as the country’s key export engine begins to sputter under the weight of U.S. protectionism.

China and Hong Kong: Direct Hit to Key Sectors

The declines in the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite indices were a direct reaction to the U.S. tariffs, which targeted sectors where Chinese companies are major global suppliers.²¹ Technology and pharmaceutical stocks, in particular, faced heavy selling pressure as investors reassessed their export growth prospects. While the broader Shanghai market found some pockets of support from industrial and energy stocks, the overall sentiment remained negative.²¹ The Hang Seng’s decline was exacerbated by its high concentration of large, globally-focused technology firms that are sensitive to shifts in U.S.-China trade relations.

South Korea: Heightened Trade Sensitivity

The South Korean KOSPI’s outsized 2.5% single-day drop underscores its status as a high-beta market for U.S. trade sentiment. The sell-off was explicitly linked to “growing worries over prolonged tariff negotiations with the U.S.”.²⁰ The market’s sharp negative reaction suggests that investors perceive the South Korean economy as being more singularly dependent on a stable trade relationship with the U.S. and having fewer domestic demand buffers compared to its larger regional peers, Japan and China. As a result, the KOSPI often acts as a leveraged barometer for global trade risk. When trade tensions rise, capital tends to flee the KOSPI faster than other regional markets, making it a key indicator for gauging the intensity of market fear surrounding protectionism.

India: A Perfect Storm of Tariffs and Outflows Hits Dalal Street

Indian equities suffered a brutal week, with benchmark indices tumbling for six consecutive sessions to close at three-week lows as a confluence of negative factors created a perfect storm for investors.²⁹ The selling pressure was broad and intense, reflecting deep concerns about the country’s key export sectors and a significant withdrawal of foreign capital.

The 30-share BSE Sensex tanked 733 points, or 0.90%, on Friday to settle at 80,426.46. For the week, the index plunged 2.7%.²⁹ The 50-share NSE Nifty 50 tumbled 236 points, or 0.95%, on Friday to close at 24,654.70, bringing its weekly loss to 2.7% and its total decline over the six-day losing streak to over 3%.²⁹ The sell-off was even more severe in the broader market, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices falling 2% and 2.25% respectively on Friday alone.³¹ Underscoring the rising anxiety, the India VIX, a measure of expected market volatility, surged by 7.79%.³¹

The Direct Hit from U.S. Pharma Tariffs

The primary trigger for the week’s sharp downturn was the U.S. announcement of a 100% tariff on imported branded drugs. The United States is India’s single largest pharmaceutical market, and the news sparked panic selling across the sector.²⁹ The Nifty Pharma and BSE Healthcare indices were among the worst sectoral performers, each falling over 2% on Friday.²⁹

The Indian market’s severe underperformance this week reveals a critical structural vulnerability: its heavy reliance on its “twin pillars” of export-oriented growth, Pharmaceuticals and IT, both of which are highly sensitive to U.S. trade and immigration policy. While analysts noted that generic drugs, which form the vast majority of India’s pharma exports, were technically spared by the tariff’s wording, significant uncertainty remained. Concerns over how U.S. authorities might interpret the term “branded” and the potential disruption to Indian firms that engage in contract manufacturing for global branded products were enough to trigger a widespread sell-off.²⁹

Compounding Woes for the IT Sector

The bad news for the pharmaceutical sector landed on an already fragile market. Investor sentiment had been souring all week due to ongoing concerns about a recent U.S. hike in H-1B visa fees. This policy is seen as a direct threat to the business models and earnings of India’s massive IT services sector, which relies heavily on these visas to place workers in the U.S..³⁰ This created a “double blow” that other global markets did not face. While markets like Australia saw their healthcare sectors fall, their dominant mining sectors rose, providing a crucial buffer. India had no such offsetting positive catalyst. The Nifty IT index was the sharpest sectoral loser on Friday, plunging 2.45%, with heavyweights like Infosys, Tech Mahindra, and Tata Consultancy Services all coming under significant pressure.³¹

Accelerating Foreign Fund Outflows

The negative news flow was exacerbated and amplified by persistent selling from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs). This highlights the reflexive relationship between foreign capital and market stability in India. The initial selling pressure from the tariff and visa news likely triggered risk-management protocols for large foreign funds. This led to significant capital flight, with FIIs offloading equities worth nearly 5,000 crore INR (approximately $600 million) on Thursday alone.²⁹ This large-scale selling added immense downward pressure on prices, forcing domestic investors to sell as well and creating a feedback loop that deepened the correction and explains why the market’s decline was so sharp and sustained over six days.

Oceania: Mining Strength Shields Australian Market from Broader Weakness

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index successfully bucked the negative global trend, managing to finish the week with a modest gain that snapped a three-week losing streak.³⁴ The index closed at 8,787.70, up 0.17% on Friday and 0.16% for the week, demonstrating remarkable resilience in the face of widespread risk-off sentiment.³⁴

This performance showcases how a market dominated by “old economy” sectors like mining can act as a defensive play during turmoil driven by disputes in “new economy” areas like technology and healthcare. The ASX 200’s strength was almost entirely attributable to a powerful rally in its heavyweight materials and resources sector, which surged by more than 5% during the week.³⁴

A Powerful Rally in the Materials Sector

The rally in the mining sector was fueled by a surge in key commodity prices, driven by events entirely unrelated to the U.S. tariff announcements. Copper prices rallied strongly after a landslide at a major mine in Indonesia created a significant supply disruption.³⁴ Simultaneously, precious metals remained in high demand, with gold prices hovering near record highs and silver reaching a 14-year high.³⁴

Australia’s major mining companies reaped the benefits of this commodity boom. Shares of global mining giants BHP and Rio Tinto both surged by more than 6% for the week, and their enormous weighting in the ASX 200 was sufficient to pull the entire index into positive territory.³⁴ The Australian market thrived not by avoiding the global storm, but because its largest and most influential components were sailing on a different, more favourable wind.

Contrasting Sector Performance: Healthcare Hit by Tariffs

The strength in mining effectively masked significant weakness in other parts of the Australian market. Mirroring the trend seen in Europe, Asia, and India, Australia’s healthcare sector tumbled in response to the U.S. pharma tariff news, falling 2.6% for the week.³⁴

The impact was felt by the sector’s largest players. Blood plasma giant CSL, a major global pharmaceutical exporter, saw its shares fall 1.9%.³⁴ The reaction also highlighted the contagious nature of market fear. Shares in other healthcare companies, such as Telix Pharmaceuticals and Mesoblast, tumbled by more than 3% each,

despite the companies issuing statements assuring shareholders that they were exempt from the tariffs.³⁴ This indiscriminate selling suggests that when a sector is targeted by such a significant and uncertain threat, investors often engage in a “sell the sector first and ask questions later” approach. In the short term, fear and sentiment contagion can easily overwhelm company-specific fundamentals.

Conclusion and Outlook

The week’s market movements were fundamentally defined by the strategic use of U.S. trade policy, which created clear winners and losers on a global scale and led to dramatic performance divergence across regions. Markets with heavy exposure to the targeted pharmaceutical and technology sectors, most notably India, were severely punished. In contrast, markets with strong domestic drivers or exposure to unrelated, bullish catalysts, such as Australia’s commodity-driven mining sector, proved remarkably resilient.

In the United States and Europe, investor sentiment was a delicate balance. The threat of new tariffs and their potential inflationary impact was offset by economic data that, for now, keeps the door open for further monetary policy easing from the Federal Reserve. This central bank support remains the critical backstop for global equity valuations.

Looking ahead, investor focus will be squarely on the implementation details of these new U.S. tariffs. Any clarification from Washington on the precise definition of “branded” pharmaceuticals or the potential for exemptions for key trade partners like the European Union will be critical in calming market nerves. Furthermore, global markets will continue to scrutinise every piece of incoming economic data, particularly from the U.S., for any signs that could sway the Federal Reserve’s delicate balancing act between fighting persistent inflation and supporting a cooling global economy.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. The information presented herein is based on sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any associated agency. Market conditions are subject to rapid change. Readers should consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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