Global Markets Rally on Fed Hopes as Policy Divergence Emerges

Global Market Overview: All Eyes on the Fed

Global equity markets surged during the week ending September 12, 2025, driven by a powerful and unifying narrative: the near-certainty of an impending interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. A stream of softer-than-expected American economic data solidified investor conviction that the central bank would move to ease monetary policy at its upcoming meeting on September 17, unleashing a wave of “risk-on” sentiment that lifted indices from New York to Tokyo.¹ This singular focus was potent enough to propel the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite and Japan’s Nikkei 225 to new all-time highs, overshadowing regional concerns and domestic political developments.²

However, beneath the surface of this synchronised rally, a significant point of tension emerged. The week was defined by a stark tale of two central banks, as the European Central Bank (ECB) charted a markedly different course. While U.S. markets celebrated signs of economic cooling as a prelude to monetary easing, the ECB held its interest rates steady and delivered commentary suggesting its rate-cutting cycle may already be complete.⁶ This growing divergence in policy between the world’s two largest economic blocs introduces a new layer of complexity for currency markets and international capital flows.

The market’s behaviour suggests it is currently operating within a framework where nearly all asset price movements are being interpreted through the single lens of the Federal Reserve’s next decision. This has created a highly correlated but potentially fragile environment. When markets are driven so intensely by one narrative, they become acutely sensitive to any deviation from the expected script. The strong focus on the Fed has led many investors to look past other, potentially significant signals, such as the ECB’s more hawkish stance or specific corporate warnings about tariffs and slowing consumer demand.⁴ Consequently, the market’s current strength appears to be built on a narrow foundation, and a “disappointment” from the Fed could risk unravelling recent gains not just in the United States, but across the globe simultaneously.

United States: Tech-Fueled Rally Reaches New Peaks

U.S. stock markets posted a strong week of gains as investors grew increasingly confident that weakening economic data would compel the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The performance, however, revealed a split between the technology sector and the broader market. The tech-centric Nasdaq Composite was the clear leader, gaining 2.0% for the week and closing at a new record high.¹ The S&P 500 rose a healthy 1.6%, marking its best weekly performance since early August and trading near its all-time peak.¹ In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged, gaining a more modest 1.0% for the week despite breaking a two-week losing streak.¹

The “Bad News is Good News” Economy

The rally was catalysed by a series of economic reports that painted a picture of a cooling economy, which the market interpreted as a definitive green light for the Fed to begin an easing cycle. This “bad news is good news” dynamic was the dominant force throughout the week.

The labour market, in particular, showed clear signs of softening. The most significant data point came from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ annual revision, which revealed that 911,000 fewer jobs were created in the 12 months ending in March than previously reported—the largest downward revision since 2000.¹¹ This was compounded by weekly initial jobless claims, which jumped to 263,000, their highest level since October 2021, reinforcing the view that the job market is losing steam.¹¹

On the inflation front, the data was benign enough not to deter the Fed. While the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose 0.4% month-over-month, the core reading, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was in line with expectations at 0.3%.¹¹ More importantly, the Producer Price Index (PPI), a measure of wholesale inflation, was much cooler than anticipated, unexpectedly declining by 0.1% for the month.¹¹ This combination of a weakening labour market and contained inflation solidified market conviction. By the end of the week, futures markets were pricing in a 100% probability of at least a 25-basis-point rate cut at the September 17 meeting, with a small but notable 8-9% chance of a larger 50-basis-point reduction.¹

Spotlight on Market Movers

The market’s advance was led by technology and consumer discretionary stocks, with several key companies making significant moves on both company-specific news and the broader macroeconomic theme.¹

The rally was not uniform, however, and the market’s performance displayed a clear “barbell” effect. On one end, secular growth stories in artificial intelligence and electric vehicles were supercharged by the prospect of lower rates. On the other, speculation around corporate mergers and acquisitions drove value in legacy industries. In the middle, however, companies exposed to the “old economy” of physical goods and housing flashed warning signs about tariffs and slowing demand that the broader market largely ignored. The top-performing stocks were almost exclusively driven by future growth narratives or corporate action, while the laggards were those reporting on the challenging economic realities of the here-and-now. This suggests the rally’s breadth was narrower than the headline index gains imply, and that underlying economic weakness is being masked by enthusiasm for specific themes.

Key performers included:

• Tesla (TSLA): Shares of the electric vehicle maker surged 7.4% on Friday alone, building on strong gains from the prior session.⁴ The rally was attributed to its high sensitivity to lower interest rates, which can make financing vehicle purchases more affordable for consumers. The stock was also buoyed by company-specific catalysts, including CEO Elon Musk’s recent suggestion that the company’s Optimus humanoid robot business could one day be its most valuable segment, and the unveiling of its new “Megablock” industrial energy storage product.⁴
• Micron Technology (MU): The memory chip manufacturer’s stock climbed 4.4% on Friday to notch an all-time closing high.⁴ The move followed a price target increase from analysts at Citi, who highlighted strong demand for the company’s memory chips, a critical component in the hardware powering the artificial intelligence boom.¹⁵
• Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD): Shares of the media giant were the S&P 500’s best performer for two consecutive days, jumping another 16.7% on Friday.⁴ The surge was fueled by reports that rival Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is preparing a cash takeover bid. The news also lifted shares of Paramount Skydance, which added 7.6%.¹⁵

In contrast, several companies faced significant headwinds:

• RH (RH): The furniture retailer’s shares slid 4.6% after it trimmed its sales forecast and delayed a new product launch.⁴ The company explicitly attributed the weakness to the impact of tariffs and a soft housing market, providing a tangible example of the real-world economic pressures that the broader market rally overlooked.⁴
• Moderna (MRNA): The vaccine maker’s stock plunged 7.4% following a report that health officials from the Trump administration intended to link the deaths of 25 children to COVID-19 vaccinations.¹⁵

Europe: A Market Caught Between U.S. Optimism and ECB Caution

European stock markets ended the week with gains, largely riding the coattails of the optimism flowing from Wall Street. However, the performance was more restrained compared to the exuberant rallies seen in the U.S. and Japan, as investors balanced global rate cut hopes against a more cautious tone from their own central bank. The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 2.2% for the week, its best weekly performance in three months, but the gains were tempered by regional economic data and a significant policy announcement from the European Central Bank.¹⁶

On a national level, Germany’s DAX index rose by a modest 0.2% for the week, retreating slightly on Friday to close at 23,689.¹⁷ France’s CAC 40 fared better, extending its winning streak to a fifth consecutive session on Friday to close at 7,835.⁷ In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 was largely flat on Friday, finishing the session at 9,297.83 as investors digested lackluster domestic growth figures.¹⁸

The Great Policy Divide: The ECB Holds Firm

The defining event for European markets was the European Central Bank’s policy meeting on Thursday, where it decided to hold its key deposit facility interest rate steady at 2.0%.⁶ While the decision itself was widely expected, the accompanying commentary from ECB President Christine Lagarde signalled a significant hawkish shift.

During her press conference, President Lagarde stated that the “disinflationary process is over” and that risks to the Eurozone’s economic growth are now “more balanced”.⁷ This language was interpreted by markets as a clear signal that the ECB’s rate-cutting cycle, which began in June 2024, may have already concluded.⁸ This stance was supported by the ECB’s updated economic projections, which raised the Eurozone’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.2% from a previous estimate of 0.9%.⁸ The central bank’s inflation forecasts remained largely stable, with inflation expected to average 2.1% in 2025 before gradually moving toward the 2% target in subsequent years.⁸

This decision to hold rates and adopt a more confident tone, even as the Federal Reserve prepares to cut, marks a significant moment of policy decoupling between the two major Western central banks. This divergence has the potential to create meaningful shifts in global financial markets. Interest rate differentials are a primary driver of currency exchange rates. A relatively higher and stable interest rate in the Eurozone compared to a falling rate in the United States would likely make the Euro more attractive to international investors, causing the EUR/USD exchange rate to strengthen.¹³ A stronger Euro would, in turn, make European goods more expensive for foreign buyers, potentially hurting the profitability of major European exporters such as German automakers and French luxury goods companies.³ Conversely, a stronger currency makes imports cheaper, which could help to further contain inflationary pressures within the Eurozone. The ECB’s hawkish stance, while a sign of confidence in the local economy, therefore creates a complex new set of variables for European corporate earnings and the inflation outlook, a nuance that contrasts sharply with the straightforward “rate cuts are good for stocks” narrative dominating the U.S. market.

Economic Headwinds in the UK

The United Kingdom’s market faced its own specific domestic challenges. Data released on Friday revealed that the UK economy flatlined in July, showing zero growth for the month.¹³ This “uninspiring” GDP report weighed on London-listed stocks and was cited as a reason for a brief dip into negative territory for wider European indices on Friday morning before U.S.-led optimism regained control.¹⁸

Asia: A Wave of Bullish Sentiment Lifts Japan and Hong Kong

Asian markets were broadly swept up in the global rally, with bourses in Japan and Hong Kong posting exceptionally strong weekly gains. The region’s performance, however, was not uniform, highlighting the different sensitivities of its major markets to global capital flows and U.S. monetary policy.

Japan’s Nikkei Soars to New Heights

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was a standout global performer, climbing an impressive 4.8% for the week to close at a new record high of 44,768.⁵ The powerful rally was explicitly linked to the record-setting performance on Wall Street and the same expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut that animated markets worldwide.² This global tailwind proved so strong that it completely overshadowed significant domestic political news, as investors shrugged off the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.⁵ The market’s advance was led by heavyweight technology stocks, with names like Tokyo Electron and SoftBank Group posting strong gains.⁵

Hong Kong’s Best Week in Months

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index also experienced a powerful rally, surging 3.82% for the week to close at a four-year high.²¹ This marked the benchmark’s best weekly performance in six months. The gains were particularly strong in the technology sector, with the Hang Seng Tech Index outperforming the broader market by climbing 5.31% for the week.²² This was driven by significant advances in major Chinese tech companies listed in the city, including Baidu and Alibaba.²⁴ The primary driver for the rally was again attributed to the high probability of a U.S. rate cut. Because Hong Kong’s currency is pegged to the U.S. dollar, its monetary policy is directly tied to that of the Federal Reserve, making the local market acutely sensitive to shifts in U.S. interest rate expectations.²¹

China’s Measured Pace

In stark contrast to the exuberance seen in Tokyo and Hong Kong, mainland Chinese markets were far more subdued. The Shanghai Composite Index finished Friday’s session down 0.12% at 3,870.60, even as it remained up over 5% for the past month.²³ The market’s relatively flat performance at the end of the week suggests it was more influenced by domestic factors, including ongoing efforts by Beijing to guide and manage its recent bull run, rather than by the global Fed narrative.²¹

The varied performance across these three major Asian indices reveals their differing sensitivities to global financial conditions. The Nikkei and the Hang Seng are currently acting as high-beta proxies for U.S. monetary policy expectations. International investors, filled with risk appetite fueled by the prospect of cheaper U.S. capital, are channelling funds into these more open and liquid markets. The Shanghai Composite, on the other hand, is a more domestically-oriented and capital-controlled market. As such, it is less sensitive to these global “hot money” flows and is marching more to the beat of its own drum, which is dictated by China’s domestic economic data and the regulatory policies set by Beijing. This divergence is not random; it is a structural feature of these markets. Investors seeking a pure-play on the “global risk-on” trade are favouring Japan and Hong Kong, while those investing in mainland China are making a more specific and nuanced bet on the trajectory of the Chinese domestic economy.

India: Domestic and Global Tailwinds Propel Sustained Bull Run

Indian equity markets continued their impressive upward march, extending a multi-day winning streak on the back of a powerful combination of both global and domestic catalysts. The benchmark Nifty 50 index rose 0.43% on Friday to close at 25,114, marking its eighth consecutive day of gains.²⁷ The BSE Sensex gained 0.44% to close at 81,904.70, its fifth straight day in the green.²⁷ Both indices closed the week at three-week highs, demonstrating sustained bullish momentum.²⁷

The Dual Growth Engine

The market’s robust strength was attributed to a dual engine of positive factors. First, like other markets across the globe, Indian equities benefited significantly from the “renewed global optimism over a potential Fed rate cut,” which has broadly improved risk sentiment and the outlook for capital flows into emerging markets.²⁷

Second, and perhaps more importantly for its sustainability, the rally was also supported by encouraging local developments. The key domestic catalyst was positive news regarding progress in U.S.-India trade negotiations.²⁷ This provided a fundamental, country-specific tailwind that helped the market build on the positive global backdrop. This is particularly significant as U.S. tariffs have been cited as a headwind for the Indian market in 2025, and any sign of their easing is a welcome development for investors.³⁰

Capital Flows and Market Internals

An analysis of institutional trading activity provided further evidence of the market’s underlying health. While Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers of equities on Thursday to the tune of Rs 3,472.37 crore, this selling pressure was more than absorbed by strong buying from Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), who purchased stocks worth Rs 4,045.54 crore on the same day.²⁷

This dynamic suggests strong local conviction in the market’s outlook, a crucial factor for a sustainable rally. The Indian market is demonstrating signs of fundamental strength and a potential decoupling from broader emerging market vulnerabilities. The fact that domestic institutions are stepping in with significant capital when foreign investors sell indicates that the rally is not solely dependent on fickle foreign “hot money.” This internal support, combined with positive macroeconomic news on the trade front, makes the Indian bull run appear more fundamentally sound and durable than rallies in some other regions that are almost entirely dependent on the single narrative of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next move. While India has lagged some emerging market peers in 2025 due to these trade headwinds, it remains the world’s fastest-growing major economy.³⁰ The positive news on the trade front directly addresses a key factor that has been holding the market back, potentially unlocking its underlying economic growth potential and justifying the strong domestic investor confidence.

Oceania: Australia Rides the Wave, Led by Gold and Banks

The Australian share market closed the week on a positive note, though its performance reflected the complex and sometimes contradictory forces shaping global investor sentiment. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.7% on Friday to finish at 8,865, buoyed by the same U.S. rate cut hopes that lifted markets globally.³¹ However, the week was volatile, and the index finished down slightly by 0.1% over the five trading sessions, marking its second consecutive weekly decline.² The market’s performance was a clear story of sectors, with strength in financials and materials offsetting weakness in energy.

Commodities as the Deciding Factor

Commodity price movements were a primary driver of the Australian market’s performance, creating clear winners and losers.

• Gold Shines Brightest: Uncertainty surrounding U.S. inflation and the prospect of monetary easing pushed the price of gold to new record highs, with the precious metal touching US$3,639 an ounce.² This sparked a boom for Australian gold mining stocks, which as a group added 2.1% on Friday and were up a remarkable 6.3% for the week.³² Individual miners saw spectacular gains, with shares in Regis Resources soaring 6.4% and Bellevue Gold jumping 7.2% on Friday.³¹
• Oil Prices Drag on Energy Sector: In sharp contrast, weaker crude oil prices, driven by concerns over weakening U.S. demand and oversupply, created a significant headwind for the energy sector.³² The sector fell 2.4% on Friday, with major producers like Woodside Energy declining 3.4% and Santos falling 2.2%.³¹

Rate-Sensitive Sectors Rally

Following the lead from Wall Street, sectors that are sensitive to interest rates performed well. The property sector gained 1.3% on Friday, and Australia’s “Big Four” banks all rose by more than 1%, as investors anticipated that a global easing cycle would create a more favourable environment for lending and real estate.³¹

The Australian market served as a particularly clear barometer for the nuanced state of global investor sentiment this week. The simultaneous and strong rally in a classic “risk-on” asset class (bank stocks, which benefit from economic optimism and lower rates) and a quintessential “risk-off” or “safe-haven” asset (gold) is a notable contradiction. This suggests that while investors are optimistic enough about the prospect of monetary easing to buy equities, there remains a significant undercurrent of anxiety about the potential consequences, such as higher inflation or economic instability, that is driving them to hedge their portfolios with gold. One part of the market is betting on the positive effects of a Fed pivot to boost the economy, while another part is simultaneously hedging against the potential negative outcomes of that very same policy action. The Australian market, with its heavy weighting towards both the financial and materials sectors, perfectly captured this internal conflict within the global investment thesis.

Conclusion: A Global Market Holding Its Breath

The week ending September 12, 2025, will be remembered for a powerful, synchronised global stock market rally built on a singular hope: that the U.S. Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates. The “bad news is good news” dynamic, where signs of a cooling American economy were celebrated as a harbinger of easier monetary policy, was potent enough to drive sentiment from Sydney to Frankfurt, pushing multiple key indices to record or multi-year highs.

However, beneath the celebratory headlines, critical tensions and divergences emerged. The most significant was the growing policy chasm between a dovish-leaning Federal Reserve and a more hawkish European Central Bank, which signalled an end to its easing cycle. This decoupling has the potential to reshape currency and capital flows in the months ahead. Furthermore, the rally’s foundation appears narrow and potentially fragile. The outperformance was concentrated in forward-looking technology and growth sectors, while companies more exposed to the current realities of global trade and consumer spending showed signs of strain, a divergence that suggests the rally’s health may be less robust than headline numbers suggest.

With the market having now fully priced in its desired outcome, all roads lead to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 17. The week ahead will be defined not just by the widely expected 25-basis-point rate cut, but more critically by the tone of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s subsequent press conference and the central bank’s updated economic projections. The market has written a clear script for the Fed to follow; any deviation from that script, whether in action or guidance, holds the potential to introduce significant volatility and test the conviction behind this week’s global rally.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. The information contained herein has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. The analysis and opinions expressed in this report are based on publicly available information as of September 12, 2025, and are subject to change without notice. All investments involve risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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