Global Stock Markets: US-China Tariff Truce Sparks Rally, But Economic Realities Temper Enthusiasm (Week Ending May 16, 2025)

Introduction: A Week of Respite and Recalibration

The week ending May 16, 2025, was largely characterised by a significant uplift in global investor sentiment, primarily ignited by a landmark 90-day agreement between the United States and China to pause most of their punitive tariffs.¹ This “tariff truce” acted as a powerful catalyst, propelling many global equity indices to notable weekly gains. The US agreed to reduce tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while China committed to lowering tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for the 90-day period.³ This development eased immediate concerns about escalating trade tensions that had previously cast a shadow over the global economic outlook.

While the tariff news provided a strong tailwind, the initial euphoria was subsequently met with a dose of caution as mixed economic data emerged from various regions. Markets also digested key inflation reports, retail sales figures, and GDP numbers, which painted a more nuanced picture of the global economic landscape. Consequently, investors began to reassess the near-term economic outlook and the potential path of central bank policies. Commentary and actions from major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank, remained a focal point for market participants throughout the week.

Global Market Pulse: Key Indices at a Glance

The following table provides a snapshot of the performance of major global stock indices for the week ending May 16, 2025:

Note: STOXX Europe 600 weekly percentage change not specified but reported as positive. S&P/NZX 50 weekly change not explicitly stated; Friday’s daily change and monthly change provided for context.

North America: US Markets Surge on Trade Hopes and Inflation Moderation

A. Stellar Weekly Performance

U.S. stocks concluded a strong week on a positive trajectory, marking the third week of robust gains in the last four.¹ The S&P 500 advanced by 5.3% for the week, closing at 5,958.38.1 The Dow Jones Industrial Average also registered a solid weekly gain of 3.4%, finishing at 42,654.74.1 Leading the charge, the Nasdaq Composite surged by an impressive 7.2% for the week to settle at 19,211.10, reflecting renewed investor enthusiasm for technology stocks and an increased appetite for risk.¹ The Russell 2000 index, which tracks smaller companies, also participated in the rally, gaining 4.5% over the week.₁

These significant weekly advances pushed both the S&P 500 and the Dow back into positive territory for the year 2025, with year-to-date gains of 1.3% and 0.3%, respectively. The Nasdaq, despite its strong weekly performance, remained slightly down by 0.5% for the year.¹

B. Key Driver: US-China Tariff Pause

The principal catalyst for the week’s market rally was the announcement of a 90-day pause in the escalating tariff war between the United States and China.¹ This agreement, which involves a significant reduction in tariffs by both nations (US tariffs on many Chinese goods to fall from 145% to 30%, and Chinese tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%) ³, was a major source of relief for investors. The de-escalation of trade tensions, which had previously roiled financial markets and stoked fears of a global economic downturn, substantially boosted investor confidence and risk appetite.

C. Economic Data and Federal Reserve Outlook

Adding to the positive sentiment were encouraging reports on inflation, which fostered hopes that the Federal Reserve might have scope to consider interest rate cuts later in the year should the economy show signs of faltering. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April indicated a moderation in price pressures, rising 2.3% year-over-year. While this was the lowest reading in over four years, it remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.15 Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.8% year-over-year, consistent with the previous month’s pace.¹⁵

Further evidence of easing inflationary pressures came from the Producer Price Index (PPI) for April, which unexpectedly declined by 0.5% from March. This was the largest monthly drop in 16 months and suggested that companies might be absorbing some of the impact of tariffs rather than passing all costs on to consumers.¹⁵ However, other economic indicators presented a more mixed picture: retail sales growth slowed sharply in April to just 0.1% ¹⁵, and factory production contracted by 0.4%.¹⁷

The market’s reaction to this confluence of news reveals a complex dynamic. The tariff truce directly mitigated a significant headwind for corporate earnings and global growth, naturally encouraging a “risk-on” stance. Simultaneously, economic data points like slowing inflation and softer retail sales, which might typically be viewed as negative signals for economic health, were interpreted through the lens of potential monetary policy easing. Investors appeared to connect slowing inflation and a potential economic slowdown with an increased probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. This “bad news is good news” scenario often emerges when markets anticipate a more accommodative monetary policy. However, this also underscores a potential vulnerability. If inflation proves more persistent than anticipated, or if an economic slowdown is sharper than expected, the Federal Reserve’s flexibility could be constrained, potentially disappointing market hopes. The underlying concern of “stagflation”—a stagnant economy coupled with high inflation ¹⁸—could resurface if economic conditions deteriorate. Indeed, some analysts project that the Fed may keep rates steady for most of 2025 and anticipate headline inflation rising to 3.4% by year-end due to tariffs, a view that contrasts with the market’s immediate optimism.¹⁶

D. Sector Spotlight and Corporate News

Technology stocks were notable beneficiaries of the week’s positive sentiment. Shares of electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA) surged 17% over the week, while server manufacturer Super Micro Computer (SMCI) saw its stock jump by an impressive 44%.2 Companies in the artificial intelligence (AI) space, such as Nvidia and Palantir, also recorded strong gains earlier in the week.¹⁸

The healthcare sector, however, witnessed significant volatility centred around UnitedHealth Group (UNH). The company’s stock plunged mid-week following a string of negative news: the CEO announced his departure, the company withdrew its 2025 financial outlook citing higher-than-anticipated medical costs, and reports emerged of a Department of Justice criminal investigation into its Medicare practices.² This series of events caused a substantial drag on the Dow Jones Industrial Average earlier in the week.¹⁸ Nevertheless, UNH shares experienced a sharp rebound on Friday, surging over 6%. This recovery was partly attributed to news of insider buying and analyst commentary suggesting the prior sell-off had been excessive, making the stock an attractive “dip-buying” opportunity.² UnitedHealth ended up being the top performer in the S&P 500 on Friday.² The dramatic price swings in UNH shares illustrate how company-specific issues can cause a stock’s performance to diverge significantly from broader market trends, and also highlight the market’s capacity for rapid re-evaluation of value, even amidst serious ongoing concerns.

Europe: Gains Across the Continent, Supported by Global Tailwinds and Central Bank Moves

A. Major Indices Performance

European stock markets generally advanced during the week, buoyed by the positive developments in US-China trade relations and a supportive corporate earnings season.7 The UK’s FTSE 100 index climbed 1.52% for the week, closing at 8,684.56 ², and reached its highest level since late March on Friday.14 Germany’s DAX index registered a weekly gain of 1.14%, ending at 23,767.43 and setting a new record close during the week.2 This marked the DAX’s fifth consecutive week of gains.5 Similarly, France’s CAC 40 index rose 1.85% for the week to finish at 7,886.69.² The pan-European STOXX 600 index also concluded the week on a higher note, achieving its fifth consecutive week of gains.⁷

B. Influencing Factors

The temporary truce in the US-China trade dispute was a significant positive influence on European markets.¹⁴ Alongside this global factor, regional central bank actions and commentary played a crucial role.

The Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee voted to reduce the Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.25%. The BoE cited progress in curbing inflationary pressures as the rationale for the cut.²⁴ However, the central bank also cautioned that inflation is likely to experience a temporary rise in 2025 before receding to its 2% target. Furthermore, the BoE highlighted the uncertainties stemming from evolving global trade policies.²⁴

From the European Central Bank (ECB), communications suggested a continued dovish monetary policy stance. An ECB Governing Council member indicated that market expectations of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in June were “relatively appropriate”.²³ Updated ECB staff projections forecast headline inflation in the Eurozone to average 2.3% in 2025, declining to 1.9% in 2026. These projections were accompanied by a subdued growth outlook, with GDP expected to increase by only 0.9% in 2025.²⁶ The ECB’s May 2025 Financial Stability Review also pointed to potential risks arising from trade tensions and developments in crypto markets.²⁷ Further projections indicated that additional monetary easing would be necessary if the baseline dynamics for inflation and economic growth persist.²⁸

The differing monetary policy trajectories—with the BoE actively cutting rates and the ECB signalling further easing, while the US Federal Reserve maintains a “wait-and-see” approach—are noteworthy. European stock markets have demonstrated resilience, and the narrative of European equities outperforming their US counterparts in recent months ²⁹ appears to be supported by these developments. This outperformance could be attributed to several factors, including more accommodative central bank policies in Europe, potentially more attractive valuations after a period of underperformance, and perhaps a perception that European economies might be less directly exposed to certain US-centric trade disputes. If European central banks continue on a more aggressive easing path than the Fed, it could sustain investor interest in European equities. However, the UN’s forecast of EU growth remaining steady but sluggish at 1.0% in 2025 ³⁰ suggests that while monetary policy is supportive, underlying economic dynamism might still be a concern. The impact of “changes in global trade policies” ²⁴ remains a key uncertainty for both the UK and the Eurozone economies.

Asia-Pacific: A Mixed Performance Amidst Global Shifts and Local Data

A. Japan 

Economic Contraction Weighs on Sentiment, Nikkei Still Gains Weekly

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index managed a weekly gain of 0.67%, closing at 37,753.72, marking its fifth consecutive week of advances.⁸ However, the index performance was subdued on Friday, ending flat to slightly down.⁸ A significant domestic factor influencing sentiment was the release of Japan’s Q1 GDP data, which revealed an annual contraction of 0.7%. This was the first decline in a year and was attributed to lower exports, higher imports, and stagnant consumer spending.¹⁷ The contraction was more severe than the forecasted 0.2% decline.³¹

In response to the weakening economic picture, Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Toyoaki Nakamura advocated for caution against raising interest rates. He highlighted the downward pressure on the economy and expressed concerns about the potential impact of US tariffs on Japan’s crucial automobile sector.³¹ Reflecting this cautious stance, most economists now anticipate the BOJ will maintain its current interest rates through September.³¹ Despite the weak GDP figures, the Japanese Yen strengthened against the US dollar during the week ¹⁷, a move likely driven by broader US dollar weakness rather than domestic factors.

Japan’s economic situation presents a policy challenge. The GDP contraction underscores significant headwinds, exacerbated by global trade uncertainties. The BOJ’s dovish stance signals ongoing monetary support, which is generally positive for equities. The Nikkei’s ability to secure a weekly gain, despite Friday’s lacklustre performance and negative domestic data, suggests that global factors such as the US-China tariff pause and expectations of prolonged BOJ accommodation may currently be outweighing immediate domestic economic concerns. The strengthening of the Yen appears to be more a reflection of US dollar weakness, fueled by US inflation data and Fed speculation, than a sign of inherent Yen strength. Japan faces a delicate balancing act: a weak economy and external risks argue for continued easing, but a persistently weak Yen (over the longer term, despite this week’s move) could fuel import inflation. The “renewed frontloading surge” in shipping due to the 90-day US-China truce ¹⁷ could also provide a temporary boost to Japanese exporters.

B. China & Hong Kong

Tariff Truce Boost, but Local Factors Create Mixed Moves

Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite Index recorded a weekly gain of 0.76%, closing at 3,367.46, its second consecutive week of advances.10 However, the index experienced a decline of 0.4% on Friday.10 In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index surged 2.09% for the week to 23,345.05, marking its fifth consecutive weekly gain.9 Despite the strong weekly performance, the Hang Seng fell by over 1% on Friday.9 This decline was partly attributed to a more than 5% tumble in Alibaba’s shares following the announcement of disappointing Q4 earnings.³¹

The US-China tariff pause had an immediate positive impact, sending shares in Hong Kong surging earlier in the week.³⁴ However, longer-term concerns persist. The United Nations forecasted that China’s economic growth would ease to 4.6% in 2025, citing weak consumer spending, disruptions in export-driven industries, and ongoing issues in the property market.³⁰

The strong weekly gains in Chinese and Hong Kong markets were clearly driven by the short-term relief provided by the tariff truce, which alleviated immediate pressure on exporters. However, the pullback on Friday, influenced by company-specific news like Alibaba’s earnings, shows that market sentiment can still be swayed by local factors. The UN’s moderated growth forecast for China highlights persistent domestic challenges, including consumer spending and the property sector. This suggests that while the tariff truce offers breathing room, it does not resolve China’s underlying economic issues. Chinese markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments in US-China relations beyond the current 90-day truce. The observed “renewed frontloading surge” in shipping ¹⁷ indicates that businesses are rushing to capitalise on this temporary window, but uncertainty about the post-truce environment will linger.

C. Broader Asian Sentiment

Asian markets, in general, exhibited a mixed performance throughout the week. The initial optimism sparked by the US-China trade détente began to wane as the week progressed, with traders growing more cautious about the tariff situation beyond the 90-day reduction period.³¹ A notable trend was the weakness of the US dollar against Asian currencies, a development spurred by soft US inflation data.³¹

India: Domestic Optimism and Global Cues Propel Markets to Strong Weekly Gains

A. Benchmark Performance

Indian stock market benchmarks, the Sensex and the Nifty 50, registered significant weekly gains, even though Friday saw some profit-booking after a strong rally.11 The Nifty 50 advanced 4.2% for the week, closing at 25,019.80, despite a 0.17% dip on Friday.¹¹ This marked its best weekly performance since April 18th.¹¹ The Sensex climbed 3.6% for the week, ending at 82,330.59, though it experienced a 0.24% decline on Friday.¹¹ Earlier in the week, on Thursday, both indices had reached seven-month highs.36

B. Key Drivers

The strong performance of Indian markets was underpinned by a combination of favourable global and domestic factors. Globally, easing geopolitical tensions and the optimism surrounding the US-China trade agreement provided a positive backdrop.11

Domestically, several elements contributed to the bullish sentiment. Expectations of a continued supportive monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), including the possibility of further interest rate cuts, played a significant role.¹¹ The RBI had already initiated an easing cycle with a repo rate cut to 6.25% in February, its first such reduction in nearly five years.³⁹ Positive activity from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) also bolstered the market; FIIs were substantial net buyers on Friday, with net purchases amounting to ₹8,831 crore, their highest since March 27 ¹¹, although this figure was influenced by a large block deal in Bharti Airtel shares. Consistent FII inflows are generally viewed as a positive sign for market liquidity and confidence.³⁸ Furthermore, stable Q4 corporate earnings and a healthy macroeconomic outlook for India contributed to investor optimism.³⁵ The UN projects India’s GDP to grow by 6.3% in 2025, positioning it among the fastest-growing major economies globally.³⁰

C. Market Internals and Sectoral Moves

A key feature of the week was the outperformance of mid and small-cap indices compared to the main benchmarks, indicating broad-based market participation.¹¹ On Friday alone, the BSE Midcap index rose by 0.85%, and the Smallcap index by 1.18%.35 In terms of sectoral performance on Friday, Nifty Realty (+1.63%) and Nifty Media (+1.11%) were the top gainers. Conversely, the Nifty IT index declined by 0.84%.35 The profit-booking observed on Friday was concentrated in heavyweight stocks such as Bharti Airtel, Infosys, State Bank of India (SBI), HCL Tech, and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS).³⁵

The Indian market’s strong weekly showing, driven by both global tailwinds and robust domestic fundamentals, suggests a healthy underlying momentum. The outperformance of mid and small-cap stocks is particularly telling, as it often signals strong participation from domestic retail and institutional investors, indicating that the rally is not solely dependent on foreign inflows into a few large-cap names. This broad-based strength points to a more resilient market sentiment. India appears to be in a favourable position, benefiting from improved global risk appetite alongside strong internal growth drivers. This diversification of positive factors could make the Indian market more durable compared to those reliant on fewer catalysts. The prevailing sentiment remains positive, with market analysts suggesting that dips are likely to be met with buying interest.³⁵

Oceania: Rate Cut Hopes Lift Australian and New Zealand Markets

A. Australia: ASX 200 Reaches Three-Month High

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index rose 1.37% for the week, closing at 8,343.70. This marked its fourth gain in the past five weeks and propelled the index to a three-month high.² On Friday, the index advanced by 0.6%.¹² The rally was largely fueled by expectations of impending interest rate cuts from both the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the US Federal Reserve. This sentiment was reinforced by Australian inflation data showing a fall back into the RBA’s target zone.³¹ Weaker-than-expected economic data from the US also contributed to this optimistic outlook regarding potential rate cuts.⁴¹

Economists from Australia’s four major banks are largely in agreement, predicting an RBA rate cut at its upcoming meeting on May 19-20. Forecasts for the cut range from 25 to 50 basis points.⁴² Sector-wise, interest rate-sensitive real estate stocks were prominent gainers on Friday. Mining stocks also generally performed well, with gold miners seeing a jump despite some weakness in the underlying gold price.⁴¹

However, the outlook for some of Australia’s key commodity exports presents a mixed picture. Iron ore prices are anticipated to weaken throughout 2025, with a specific concern that Australian iron ore may trade at a greater discount due to declining ore grades.⁴³ Brent crude oil is expected to remain below $US60 per barrel, which could exert downward pressure on Australian LNG export prices.⁴³

B. New Zealand

NZX 50 Edges Lower on Friday, Recovery Signs Emerge

New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 index closed at 12,786.79 on Friday, May 16, down 0.73% for the day.¹³ While the specific weekly change was not explicitly detailed across all sources, the index showed a month-to-date gain of 5.51% as of May 16.¹³ The broader economic overview for New Zealand in May suggests that an anticipated recovery is beginning to materialise, driven by strong commodity export prices and the impact of significant interest rate cuts already implemented.⁴⁶

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to maintain a data-dependent approach to monetary policy, with analysts forecasting a likely move of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3% in the coming months.⁴⁶ Westpac IQ, for instance, anticipates a 25-basis-point rate cut at the RBNZ’s next meeting scheduled for May 28.⁴⁷ Inflation expectations in New Zealand picked up in the RBNZ’s Q2 survey, though they remain within the central bank’s target band.⁴⁷ A key challenge for the New Zealand economy is the prospect of weaker global demand, particularly stemming from the US-China trade situation.⁴⁶

Markets in Oceania are currently navigating a path influenced by hopes of domestic monetary easing on one hand, and external pressures from global trade dynamics and commodity trends on the other. For Australia, while rate cuts can stimulate domestic demand and benefit sectors like real estate ⁴¹, potential weakness in the dominant resources sector due to challenging outlooks for iron ore and LNG ⁴³ could limit overall economic performance. For New Zealand, the primary external risk appears to be a slowdown in global demand linked to trade tensions ⁴⁶, which could significantly impact its export-reliant economy. Therefore, while central banks in both countries seem poised to provide further stimulus, the ultimate trajectory of these markets will also heavily depend on the resolution of global trade issues and the overall health of the global economy, particularly that of China, a key trading partner for both Australia and New Zealand. The degradation of Australian iron ore quality ⁴³ also presents a longer-term structural issue that could affect Australia’s terms of trade.

Commodities and Currencies: Volatility Amid Shifting Sentiments

A. Oil Prices

Oil prices stabilised towards the end of the week after experiencing earlier declines. They were on track for a second consecutive weekly gain, supported by the easing of US-China trade tensions.³¹ Brent crude futures hovered around $64.55-$65.³³ per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading near $61.22-$62.50 per barrel.²

Earlier in the week, prices had fallen due to the prospects of an Iran nuclear deal, which could introduce more supply into the market.³¹ Additionally, OPEC+ is in the process of increasing supply.⁴³ Looking ahead, demand destruction resulting from tariffs and trade wars is anticipated to peak in the third quarter of the year, potentially contributing to a build-up in oil inventories.⁴³

B. Gold

Gold prices experienced a rebound mid-week. This was triggered by weak US economic data, which led to a drop in the US dollar and Treasury yields, thereby increasing the appeal of non-yielding bullion.¹⁷ However, gold futures declined on Friday; for instance, one report indicated a 0.7% fall to $3,205 per ounce ², while another noted spot gold fell 1.5% to $3,192.18 per ounce.48 Overall, gold was on course for its most significant weekly loss since November. This was attributed to the US-China trade agreement, which boosted risk appetite among investors and consequently dampened the demand for safe-haven assets like gold.⁷ The Bloomberg Commodity Index was down 1% for the week, partly due to gold’s 3.5% weekly decline.¹⁷

C. Currencies

The US dollar generally weakened against a basket of other currencies, particularly those in Asia. This was largely a reaction to soft US inflation data, which increased speculation that the Federal Reserve might consider cutting interest rates.³ Despite this intra-week weakness, the Dollar Index reportedly rose 0.8% for the week, marking its fourth consecutive weekly gain according to some measures ¹⁹, suggesting underlying demand or broader positioning.

The Japanese Yen strengthened against the US dollar, a move that occurred despite weak domestic GDP figures, likely reflecting the broader USD weakness.¹⁷ The Euro fell against the dollar, trading in the range of $1.1145-$1.1146.¹⁴ Similarly, the British Pound also weakened against the dollar, trading around $1.3260-$1.3273.¹⁴

The behaviour of commodity and currency markets during the week reflected conflicting signals and shifting investor priorities. Gold saw outflows typically associated with reduced systemic risk (due to the trade truce) but found temporary support when weak US economic data hinted at potential Fed easing. Lower interest rates generally reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Oil prices were caught in a tug-of-war between demand optimism stemming from a potential trade resolution and supply-side factors, including increased output from OPEC+ and the possibility of more Iranian oil entering the market. The US dollar’s performance was also nuanced; while it weakened on increased bets of Fed rate cuts, some broader measures showed a weekly gain, possibly indicating persistent underlying demand due to its safe-haven status in an still uncertain global environment or lingering interest rate differentials favouring the US. This complex interplay suggests that commodity and currency markets are dynamically adjusting to a fluid mix of geopolitical relief, economic growth concerns, and evolving monetary policy expectations. The 90-day window of the tariff truce implies that this period of uncertainty and market re-evaluation is likely to continue.

Conclusion: Key Takeaways and a Look Ahead

The trading week ending May 16, 2025, was overwhelmingly shaped by the announcement of a 90-day tariff truce between the United States and China. This development provided a significant, albeit perhaps temporary, boost to global equity markets, alleviating immediate concerns about an escalating trade war. The optimism was further amplified in the US by signs of moderating inflation, which fueled hopes for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later in the year. European markets also benefited from this improved global sentiment, with domestic central banks in the UK and the Eurozone leaning towards more accommodative monetary policies.

Asian markets exhibited a more mixed response. While the tariff pause was welcomed, local economic data—such as Japan’s GDP contraction and specific corporate news like Alibaba’s earnings—tempered some of the enthusiasm. Indian markets, however, stood out with particularly strong gains, driven by a potent combination of positive global cues, expectations of continued domestic monetary support, robust foreign investor inflows, and a healthy macroeconomic outlook. Markets in Oceania were largely driven by expectations of domestic rate cuts, though concerns about global trade and commodity price trends remain.

Despite the widespread rally, a sense of lingering uncertainty pervades the market. The 90-day duration of the US-China tariff pause means that the underlying trade tensions are merely deferred, not resolved. The true economic impact of previously imposed tariffs is still unfolding, and concerns about underlying economic growth persist in several key regions. The direction of inflation and the subsequent actions and forward guidance from major central banks will be critical in shaping market sentiment in the coming weeks and months.

Looking ahead, investors will be keenly focused on upcoming economic data releases for further insights into inflation trajectories and the momentum of economic growth across major economies. Developments in US-China trade relations beyond the current 90-day truce will be of paramount importance. Furthermore, the next round of corporate earnings will be closely scrutinised for indications of how businesses are navigating the evolving economic landscape, including the impact of tariffs, input costs, and consumer demand. The interplay between these global and domestic factors will likely continue to drive market volatility and investor positioning.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. The stock market is inherently volatile, and past performance is not indicative of future results. All investment decisions should be made with the help of a qualified financial advisor, considering your individual financial situation and risk tolerance. The information presented here is based on data available as of May 16, 2025, and may be subject to change. The author or a publishing organisation does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided.

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