Global Stock Markets Weekly Review: Tariff Uncertainty Dominates Week Ending April 18, 2025

Navigating a Week of Tariff Turmoil and Policy Responses

Global financial markets navigated a period of heightened volatility during the week ending April 18, 2025. The primary driver of investor sentiment and market movement was the significant uncertainty surrounding US trade tariff policies, which had been announced earlier in the month and came into effect on April 5th.¹ This uncertainty triggered sharp market reactions across the globe, with major indices experiencing significant swings, particularly early in the week when some markets flirted with bear market territory.³

Performance varied considerably across regions as markets digested the potential economic fallout from tariffs, ranging from fears of recession and stagflation to hopes for negotiated resolutions.⁵ Adding another layer of complexity was the commencement of the Q1 corporate earnings season in the US, providing company-specific news that sometimes contrasted with the broader macroeconomic concerns.⁴ Central banks also took diverging paths, with the European Central Bank cutting rates in response to the trade risks, while the US Federal Reserve maintained a cautious stance.⁵ Trading activity concluded on Thursday in many major financial centres, including the US, India, and parts of Europe and Asia, due to the Good Friday public holiday on April 18th.¹²

Global Market Pulse: Trade Fears Dominate, Central Banks Diverge

The dominant global theme throughout the week was the economic impact and uncertainty stemming from US tariff policies, particularly the reciprocal tariffs mentioned in several analyses.¹ Initial announcements and implementation earlier in April had sparked significant market turmoil, wiping trillions off global stock market value as investors grappled with the potential for rising costs, supply chain disruptions, higher inflation, and slower economic growth.¹ Market gyrations were pronounced, reflecting deep uncertainty about the scope, duration, and ultimate economic consequences of the trade conflict.¹ Towards the end of the week, however, a slight easing of tensions emerged following reports of progress in trade negotiations between the US and key partners like Japan and the European Union, leading to some market rebounds.⁴

Central banks presented diverging responses to the evolving landscape. The US Federal Reserve, facing potential tariff impacts on both inflation and growth, adopted a cautious approach. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated the central bank would likely remain patient regarding interest rate cuts, acknowledging the complex challenge tariffs posed.⁵ This stance came despite criticism from the White House urging rate cuts.²³ In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) moved proactively, cutting its key interest rates by 25 basis points, explicitly citing the threat from rising trade tensions and a deteriorating growth outlook as key factors in its decision.⁴ Similarly, central banks in India and New Zealand had either recently eased policy or were expected to continue doing so, partly reflecting concerns about the global environment and domestic conditions.²⁵

The policy dilemma faced by central banks, particularly the Fed, was underscored by rising concerns about stagflation – a damaging combination of stagnant economic growth and higher inflation.⁵ Tariffs were seen as potentially contributing to both sides of this equation, making monetary policy decisions exceptionally difficult.⁵

Commodity markets reflected the week’s uncertainty. Gold prices surged to new record highs, surpassing $3,340 per ounce at one point, driven by safe-haven demand amidst the trade turmoil and recession fears.⁹ Oil prices, which had suffered sharp losses earlier in April, staged a recovery during the week, with Brent crude climbing back towards $68 per barrel and WTI crude moving above $64 per barrel, partly supported by fresh US sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports.⁵ Other commodities like copper saw prices fall, while iron ore remained relatively flat.⁹

Global Index Performance Summary (Week Ending April 18, 2025)

Note: Weekly changes are approximate based on available data up to market close on Thursday, April 17th, or the last available closing data before the Good Friday holiday. YTD figures are as reported in sources for specific indices.

United States: Tariff Jitters, Fed Caution, and Earnings Hits

US stock markets ended the holiday-shortened week lower, weighed down primarily by persistent concerns over trade tariffs and cautious commentary from the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 index finished the week down 1.5%, closing at 5,282.63.⁵ The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite experienced a steeper decline, falling 2.6% to 16,286.45.⁵ The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw the largest weekly drop among the major indices, shedding 2.7% to close at 39,142.11.⁵ These losses extended significant year-to-date declines, with the S&P 500 down 10.2%, the Nasdaq down 15.7%, and the Dow down 8.0% for 2025.⁵ Market volatility was high earlier in the week, with the S&P 500 briefly dipping below the 5,000 level for the first time in nearly a year and showing signs of nearing bear market territory (a 20% decline from recent highs) before recovering somewhat.³

The primary catalyst for the week’s negative performance was the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy.⁵ The potential economic impact of broad reciprocal tariffs dominated investor thinking, leading to market gyrations.¹ The technology sector felt a specific impact from new US export restrictions targeting semiconductors destined for China. This directly affected major chip companies like Nvidia (NVDA), which disclosed a potential $5.5 billion negative impact on its quarterly results due to these restrictions, causing its stock to fall and dragging down the Nasdaq.⁵ This highlights how the general anxiety surrounding tariffs translated into tangible consequences for specific sectors and companies heavily reliant on international trade and complex supply chains.

Federal Reserve policy also played a crucial role. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank would likely remain patient regarding further interest rate cuts.⁵ He cited the uncertain effects of tariffs on both economic growth and inflation as a key reason for this caution, acknowledging the potential for stagflation – a scenario the Fed hasn’t seriously contended with in decades.⁵ While market futures still indicated expectations for several rate cuts by the end of 2025 ⁵, the Fed’s immediate posture remained one of waiting for more clarity.⁹ The Fed was also active on the regulatory front, approving the merger between Capital One and Discover Financial Services, while simultaneously issuing a consent order and a $100 million fine against Discover for misclassifying credit cards and overcharging merchants over many years.³⁸

Economic data released during the week presented a mixed picture, reflecting the conflicting pressures highlighted by the Fed. Retail sales surged by 1.4% in March, the strongest gain since early 2023, potentially boosted by consumers making purchases ahead of anticipated tariff-related price increases.⁹ The labour market also showed resilience, with initial jobless claims remaining low.⁹ However, forward-looking indicators were less encouraging. Regional manufacturing surveys from the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve banks indicated deteriorating conditions in April, with manufacturers expressing pessimism and reporting rising input prices linked directly to tariffs.⁹ Industrial production fell in March, primarily due to lower utility output, and housing starts dropped sharply, with homebuilder sentiment remaining subdued.⁹ This conflicting data – signs of current consumer strength (perhaps temporary) alongside manufacturing weakness and rising cost pressures – aligns with the stagflationary concerns voiced by policymakers and complicates the economic outlook.

The first quarter earnings season kicked off, adding company-specific news flow. The most significant impact came from UnitedHealth Group (UNH), whose shares plunged over 22% on Thursday after the health insurance giant reported disappointing earnings and cut its financial forecast, citing higher-than-expected healthcare utilisation by its Medicare Advantage customers.¹² This single stock’s decline was the primary reason for the Dow’s sharp drop on Thursday. As mentioned, Nvidia’s warning also weighed heavily on the tech sector.⁵ Several major banks had also reported results earlier in the week or the previous week, with generally solid results noted.⁸ Streaming giant Netflix (NFLX) provided a positive note, reporting earnings that beat expectations after the market close on Thursday.¹³

The US bond market provided some diversification benefits during the week. After experiencing volatility and rising yields earlier in the tariff turmoil – a period where investors initially sold both stocks and bonds, challenging the typical inverse relationship ⁶ – government bond yields moved lower as stocks fell during the week ending April 18th. The 10-year Treasury yield decreased by about 0.16% over the week, settling around 4.33%, pushing bond prices higher and offering some cushion for balanced portfolios.⁵ This suggests a partial return to more typical market dynamics where bonds act as a safe haven during equity market stress, although the initial breakdown highlighted the depth of systemic fear sparked by the tariff announcements.

Europe: Rate Cuts Deployed as Trade Clouds Gather

European stock markets exhibited mixed performance during the week, heavily influenced by the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision and the overarching concerns about US trade tariffs. The broad Euro Stoxx 50 index finished the week lower, down approximately 1.87% according to one source ⁴, closing around 4,937 on Thursday.¹⁵ However, performance varied across national indices. While Germany’s DAX (closing near 21,206) and France’s CAC 40 (closing near 7,286) saw declines on Thursday, the UK’s FTSE 100 index showed resilience, closing higher near 8,276.⁴

The pivotal event for European markets was the ECB’s decision on Thursday, April 17th, to cut its three key interest rates by 25 basis points.⁴ This lowered the deposit facility rate to 2.25%. The ECB stated the decision was based on its updated assessment that the disinflation process was on track, with underlying inflation measures easing and wage growth moderating.¹⁰ However, ECB President Christine Lagarde strongly emphasised that the deteriorating economic outlook, clouded by exceptional uncertainty stemming from rising global trade tensions, was a significant factor.⁴ She warned of a potential “negative demand shock” for the Eurozone as exporters face new trade barriers and businesses hold back investment amid geopolitical uncertainty.¹¹ This proactive move by the ECB, explicitly linking the rate cut to trade risks even as inflation was already moderating, contrasted with the Federal Reserve’s more cautious stance. It suggests a greater perceived vulnerability of the Eurozone economy to these external shocks or perhaps a different weighting of risks in the ECB’s policy considerations compared to the Fed’s focus on domestic inflation pressures. Markets anticipate further easing from the ECB, potentially seeing the deposit rate fall towards 1.50% by the end of 2025.⁴

Europe’s response to the US tariff situation was also a key focus. The European Union announced a 90-day pause on its own retaliatory tariff measures to create space for negotiations with the US, expressing openness to achieving zero tariffs on mutual trade.⁴ However, EU officials also warned that the bloc was prepared to escalate its response, potentially using tools like the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) to restrict US firms’ access if negotiations failed.⁴ Reports later in the week suggested some positive momentum in US-EU trade talks, contributing to a slight improvement in market sentiment.¹³

Economic data releases provided context for the ECB’s actions. Inflation figures confirmed the easing trend, with the Eurozone’s Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rising 2.2% year-over-year in March, down slightly from 2.3% in February, while core inflation slowed to 2.4% from 2.6%.²⁴ In the UK, March inflation also came in weaker than expected at 2.8% year-over-year, with core inflation falling to 3.4%.⁹ This data supported the case for monetary easing in both regions. On the activity front, the UK economy showed surprising strength, expanding by a larger-than-expected 0.5% month-on-month in February, with growth seen across services, industrial production, and construction.⁴ This positive domestic signal, combined with falling inflation, might have contributed to the relative resilience of the FTSE 100 index and reinforces market expectations for further rate cuts from the Bank of England later in the year.⁹ Looking ahead, flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for April, due the following week, is highly anticipated across Europe to provide the first concrete readings on how business activity and sentiment are holding up in the face of the tariff threats.¹³

Asia: Diverging Paths on Trade Hopes and Domestic Factors

Asian stock markets presented a divergent picture during the week, largely driven by differing regional exposures and reactions to the US trade policy narrative. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index was a standout performer, leading gains in the region. It jumped 1.1% on Thursday and closed near 34,730, marking its best weekly performance in three months.¹⁵ Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index also posted strong gains, rising 1.7% on Thursday to close around 21,395.¹⁵ In contrast, markets in mainland China were more subdued; the Shanghai Composite index edged slightly higher on Thursday but was down slightly for the week, closing near 3,277, while the CSI 300 index also showed weakness.³ This followed significant volatility earlier in the month, particularly sharp declines in Chinese and Hong Kong markets immediately following the tariff implementations.³

The key factor behind Japan’s rally was growing optimism about a potential bilateral trade deal between the US and Japan.¹³ Comments from US President Trump suggesting “Big Progress” in negotiations fueled hopes that Japan might secure exemptions or more favourable terms regarding US tariffs, benefiting its export-oriented economy.²⁰ This optimism also led to speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might adopt a more cautious approach to raising interest rates if the external environment improved or if tariffs still posed a risk, which helped weaken the Yen and further support exporter stocks.²⁰

Conversely, Chinese markets remained under pressure due to their position at the centre of the trade conflict with the US.² Fears about the direct impact of high tariffs on Chinese exports and the broader economy weighed on investor sentiment.⁴⁸ While there were signals from Chinese leadership, including Premier Li Qiang, about readiness to implement supportive policy measures and manage economic expectations to counter the downturn ², these were juxtaposed with a firm diplomatic stance from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stating China would “fight to the end if interests harmed”.²⁰ The somewhat muted reaction of mainland markets, despite stimulus talk, suggests investors may be awaiting concrete actions rather than just pronouncements, testing the credibility and effectiveness of potential domestic policy responses against the significant external shock of the tariffs. China’s Q1 GDP growth was reported at 5.4% ²⁹, though some sources listed this data as upcoming.¹⁸ The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) was expected to announce its Loan Prime Rates over the weekend or early the following week.⁴⁹

The clear divergence between Japan’s rally and China’s struggles highlights how specific geopolitical positioning and negotiation dynamics within the broader trade conflict significantly influenced market outcomes in Asia, rather than just uniform regional trends. Elsewhere in the region, South Korea’s Kospi saw modest gains supported by semiconductor stocks but faced currency weakness earlier in the week.³ Taiwan’s market also reacted to the tariff news.³ Thailand had implemented a temporary ban on short-selling earlier in the month in response to volatility.¹⁸

India: Domestic Strength and RBI Easing Fuel Rally

The Indian stock market demonstrated notable resilience and strength during the week, largely shrugging off the global turmoil caused by US tariffs. Benchmark indices extended their winning streak, posting significant gains before closing for the Good Friday holiday. The BSE Sensex surged 1,508.91 points, or 1.96%, on Thursday to settle at 78,553.20, while the NSE Nifty 50 added 414.45 points, or 1.77%, to close at 23,851.65.¹⁶ This performance marked a rally over multiple sessions and positioned India as an outperformer compared to many global peers during the week.³² Gains were broad-based, with mid-cap and small-cap indices also ending higher.¹⁶

The market’s strong performance appeared relatively insulated from the direct impact of the tariff concerns dominating other regions, driven instead by positive domestic factors. A key driver was the monetary policy environment. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had recently cut its policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.00% in its April meeting and adopted a more growth-supportive “accommodative” stance.²⁶ This move boosted investor sentiment, particularly in interest-rate sensitive sectors. Furthermore, financial analysts, such as Nomura, projected significant further easing, forecasting an additional 100 basis points in rate cuts by the end of 2025.²⁶ This expectation was based on the view that inflation would likely remain below the RBI’s 4% target and that economic growth might undershoot the central bank’s own projections due to global disruptions.²⁶

Supportive economic fundamentals underpinned the rally. Inflation continued its downward trend, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation easing, providing the RBI with room to focus on supporting growth.²⁶ Nomura expected headline inflation to average around 4.1% in the fiscal year 2026 (FY26), staying below the crucial 4% mark for the remainder of 2025.²⁶ Additionally, the outlook for agriculture appeared positive, with forecasts for an above-average monsoon and reports of record wheat output, which should help keep food inflation in check.²⁷ India’s foreign exchange reserves also saw an increase during the week, rising by $1.5 billion to $677.84 billion as of April 11th, indicating a stable external position.⁵¹

Sector-wise, financial services and banking stocks were prominent outperformers, gaining over 2% on Thursday, directly benefiting from the prospect of lower interest rates.¹⁶ Key individual stock gainers highlighted included companies like Titan, Jio Finance, Shriram Finance, Cipla, and various banks.³ While domestic factors were paramount, the Indian market likely also benefited from the slight improvement in global risk sentiment observed later in the week as trade negotiation hopes flickered.¹⁶ The divergence in growth outlooks between the RBI (projecting 6.5% GDP growth for FY26) and analysts like Nomura (forecasting 5.8%) remains a point to watch.²⁶ Should growth prove weaker than the RBI expects, it could prompt even more aggressive easing, whereas stronger growth might lead to a more measured pace of rate cuts than some analysts anticipate.

Oceania: Trade Links and Commodity Swings Influence Markets

Stock markets in Australia and New Zealand ended the week with modest gains, navigating the crosscurrents of global trade tensions, fluctuating commodity prices, and evolving central bank expectations. The Australian S&P/ASX 200 index closed around 7,937 on Thursday, showing a slight gain for the week.³⁴ New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 index also finished positively, closing near 12,165.³⁴ This followed some weakness observed earlier in the month when tariff fears initially hit global markets.³

Markets in Oceania are particularly sensitive to global trade dynamics due to the region’s strong reliance on commodity exports, especially to China.²⁵ Consequently, the escalating US-China trade conflict created significant uncertainty for these export-dependent economies. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) explicitly factored trade tensions into its outlook and policy considerations.²⁸ Similarly, Australia’s significant trade relationship with China meant its economy and markets were exposed to potential negative spillovers from the dispute.²⁵ This heightened sensitivity appears to be influencing central bank expectations, making the RBA and RBNZ potentially more reactive to trade news than some other global central banks, leading markets to price in more aggressive monetary easing paths.²⁵

Commodity price movements were a mixed bag and acted as a double-edged sword. While a recovery in oil prices likely supported energy sector stocks ⁵, and mining shares contributed to gains on the ASX ³², the broader commodity picture was complex. The ANZ World Commodity Price Index actually fell slightly in March, driven by declines in key dairy products like milk powder, although beef prices rose.⁵⁴ Iron ore prices were reported as flat ⁹, and major miners like BHP expressed concern about the potential significant impact of tariffs on the global economy.⁵³ Copper prices also declined during the week.²⁵ This volatility highlights that while specific commodity price rises can benefit certain sectors, the overall uncertainty surrounding global demand due to trade wars complicates the outlook for commodity-linked economies and can cap broader market gains.⁵⁴ Fluctuations in trade and commodity prices also impacted currencies, notably the New Zealand dollar (NZD), which paused its recent rally against the US dollar partly due to trade concerns.²⁸

On the central bank front, the RBNZ had recently cut its key interest rate (sources provide conflicting base rates, but the easing trend is clear).²⁵ New Zealand’s Q1 inflation data showed a slight uptick in the annual rate to 2.5%, marginally above forecasts but still within the RBNZ’s target band.²⁵ Crucially, core inflation measures continued to ease, reinforcing expectations that the RBNZ would continue its easing cycle, with markets pricing in further cuts.²⁵ Domestic economic signals in New Zealand were mixed, with signs of recovery but also moderating housing cost inflation.²⁸ In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which began easing policy in February, was now expected by markets to act with more urgency due to the trade tensions.²⁵ Minutes from the RBA’s previous meeting were released during the week, and upcoming Australian inflation data was seen as a key input for future policy decisions.⁹

Conclusion: Uncertainty Lingers as Markets Digest Trade Policies

The week ending April 18, 2025, was characterised by significant market volatility as global investors grappled with the economic implications of newly implemented US trade tariffs. Uncertainty surrounding the scope, duration, and potential fallout of these policies dominated sentiment, leading to mixed outcomes across major stock markets. US indices finished the holiday-shortened week lower, pressured by specific tariff impacts on sectors like technology, broader stagflation fears, and cautious commentary from the Federal Reserve. In Europe, markets were mixed, but the European Central Bank took a decisive step, cutting interest rates proactively in response to the perceived threat trade tensions posed to the region’s growth outlook. Asian markets diverged sharply: Japan rallied strongly on hopes of a favourable bilateral trade deal with the US, while Chinese markets faced pressure from the direct conflict despite signals of potential domestic policy support. India stood out with strong gains, buoyed by domestic factors including central bank easing and a favourable inflation trend. Oceania markets navigated their sensitivity to global trade flows and commodity price swings, with central banks leaning towards further easing.

The primary takeaway from the week is the pervasive level of uncertainty injected into the global economy by the escalating trade tensions.² This uncertainty clouds forecasts for economic growth, influences inflation expectations, complicates central bank decision-making, and keeps investors on edge. While tentative hopes for negotiated resolutions emerged late in the week, providing some temporary relief, the underlying risks of slower growth, higher inflation, and financial market instability remain elevated.

Looking ahead, market participants will closely monitor several key developments. Progress, or lack thereof, in US trade negotiations with China, the EU, and Japan will be critical.⁴ Incoming economic data, particularly the April Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys from major economies, will provide the first real glimpse into the initial impact of the tariff threats on business activity.¹³ The continuation of the Q1 corporate earnings season will offer further insights into how companies are navigating the challenging environment.⁴ Finally, further communications from central banks regarding their assessment of the economic landscape and future policy intentions will remain a key focus for investors seeking direction amidst the ongoing uncertainty.

Disclaimer

This report is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Investing in financial markets involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. The information presented herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness are not guaranteed. Market conditions, economic data, and geopolitical events can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The views expressed in this report are subject to change without notice.

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