Weekly-Financial-Review-

Global Equity Markets Resilience Amid Geopolitical Conflict and AI Tech Tailwinds

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During the week ending 22nd May 2026, global financial markets navigated a complex matrix of intense geopolitical friction and transformative technological shifts.1 As the US-Iran conflict neared its 90th day, maritime transit limitations in the Strait of Hormuz continued to maintain a structural risk premium on global crude prices, with Brent crude hovering around USD 105 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading near USD 97 per barrel.3

However, this geopolitical pressure was offset by the relentless acceleration of the global artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure cycle, triggered by another set of blowout earnings from semiconductor bellwether Nvidia.2 Consequently, equity markets across the United States, Europe, Asia, and Oceania displayed notable resilience, frequently decoupling from declining household consumer sentiment to post positive weekly returns.6

United States Equity Markets

The US stock market concluded its eighth consecutive winning week, registering its most sustained period of positive momentum since 2023.6 The major benchmarks closed higher on Friday, 22nd May 2026, as investors absorbed a highly publicised leadership transition at the Federal Reserve and stronger-than-expected corporate earnings reports.6

US IndexFriday CloseFriday Point ChangeFriday Daily Change (%)Weekly Point ChangeWeekly Change (%)Year-to-Date Point ChangeYear-to-Date Change (%)
Dow Jones Industrial Average50,579.70+294.04+0.58%+1,053.53+2.10%+2,516.41+5.20%
S&P 500 Index7,473.47+27.75+0.37%+64.97+0.90%+627.97+9.20%
Nasdaq Composite26,343.97+50.87+0.19%+118.83+0.50%+3,101.98+13.30%
Russell 20002,869.23+25.77+0.90%+75.93+2.70%+387.32+15.60%

Macroeconomic Policy and the Federal Reserve

At the macroeconomic helm, the transition of leadership at the Federal Reserve marked a historic moment.11 Nominated by US President Donald Trump to succeed Jerome Powell, Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve during a White House ceremony on Friday, 22nd May 2026.11 Warsh took the oath of office from US Supreme Court Associate Justice Clarence Thomas.11 President Trump’s observation of the ceremony represented the first time a sitting president had attended a Fed chair’s swearing-in since Ronald Reagan watched Alan Greenspan take the oath in 1987.11

Warsh’s assumption of leadership comes at a highly delicate macroeconomic juncture.11 Nominated with the expectation of delivering the lower interest rates demanded by the administration, the new Fed Chair immediately faces a market defined by elevated bond yields and persistent inflation risks.11 During his Senate confirmation hearings, Warsh was highly critical of the Federal Open Market Committee’s communication architecture, specifically “forward guidance” and the quarterly “dot plots”, which he argued generate confirmation bias and prevent agile decision-making.11

Furthermore, Warsh indicated a preference for “trimmed-mean averages” over headline CPI or PCE metrics to measure underlying price dynamics, whilst maintaining that exchange rate policy is the exclusive domain of the Treasury Secretary.11 This geoeconomic alignment positions him closely with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.11

The bond market continues to reflect severe inflation anxieties.7 The 2-year Treasury yield, which is highly sensitive to short-term policy expectations, closed the week higher at 4.123 per cent, up from 4.084 per cent the prior week.11 Concurrently, the 10-year Treasury yield eased slightly to 4.56 per cent on Friday morning, but remains well above the 3.97 per cent level recorded before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict.7 Consequently, fixed-income traders have virtually eliminated bets that the Federal Reserve will resume interest rate cuts in 2026.7

Divergent Realities on Wall Street and Main Street

The buoyant trading on Wall Street stood in stark contrast to the financial anxiety reported by average households.7 The University of Michigan’s May Survey of Consumers showed household sentiment falling to a record low, driven primarily by worsening inflation expectations and elevated retail fuel prices stemming from the conflict with Iran.6

However, stock markets remained insulated from this consumer gloom due to exceptionally strong corporate balance sheets.7 Earnings reports from retailers like Ross Stores, alongside technology providers such as Workday and Zoom Communications, comfortably exceeded analyst estimates, reaffirming that large-scale corporate profits are successfully weathering the energy price shock.6

Prominent Corporate Performers

In the technology sector, Dell Technologies and HP surged by double-digit percentages ahead of their upcoming earnings reports, reflecting a broader thematic interest in data-centre infrastructure.12 Semiconductor connectivity specialist Astera Labs led its peer group, climbing 3.0 per cent on Friday to accumulate a 31.9 per cent gain for the week, following a substantial price target upgrade to USD 297 from Evercore ISI.11 Other technology firms, such as Texas Instruments, advanced on robust data-centre power demand, while Qualcomm rose on new partnership announcements.12 Quantum computing plays, including Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum, also recorded extended multi-day gains, illustrating strong speculative appetite.12

Outside technology, pharmaceutical giant Merck rose 5.6 per cent on Friday.11 This movement followed successful Phase III clinical trials conducted by its Chinese partner, Kelun-Biotech, which demonstrated that a combined oncology therapy utilising sac-TMT and Keytruda reduced the risk of lung cancer progression by 65 per cent.11 Conversely, global AI bellwether Nvidia closed down 1.9 per cent on Friday, finishing the week largely flat as traders engaged in profit-taking after the stock’s massive post-earnings surge.11

European Equity Markets

European shares reached their strongest levels in over a month, driven by optimism surrounding regional technological expansion and tentative signs of progress in US-Iran peace talks.8 Because the European economy is highly sensitive to imported energy costs, any potential resolution to maritime blockades in the Middle East represents a major relief valve for the continent’s industrial sectors.13

European IndexFriday CloseFriday Daily Change (%)Weekly Change (%)Key Performance Characterisation
STOXX Europe 600625.12+0.73%PositiveStrongest weekly gain in over a month 8
DAX 40 (Frankfurt)24,928.39+1.31%PositiveLed by strong industrial and technology shares 8
CAC 40 (Paris)8,128.46+0.53%PositiveSupported by luxury and aerospace names 8
FTSE 100 (London)10,466.26+0.20%+2.7%Edged up despite weak retail and borrowing data 14
FTSE 250 (London)23,167.47+1.00%+2.5%Driven by heavy corporate takeover interest 14
AIM All-Share (London)800.23+0.50%-1.5%Lagged broader market indices over the week 14

Industrial Resilience and Macroeconomic Data

Economic data from continental Europe provided an unexpected boost to market sentiment.14 The German Ifo business morale barometer defied expectations of a decline, rising to 84.9 points in May from 84.5 in April.14 This represented the first improvement in German business confidence since the eruption of the Middle East conflict, signalling that Europe’s largest industrial economy is adapting to energy disruptions better than analysts had projected.14

In contrast, macroeconomic indicators from the United Kingdom painted a more complicated picture.14 Retail sales volumes in the UK fell by 1.3 per cent in April, deteriorating significantly faster than the anticipated 0.6 per cent contraction, while March’s retail growth was revised downwards to 0.6 per cent.14

Concurrently, UK public sector borrowing for April surged to GBP 24.34 billion, exceeding the forecast of the Office for Budget Responsibility by GBP 3.4 billion.14 Despite these domestic economic headwinds, the FTSE 100 was supported by its heavy weighting in international resources and defensive multi-nationals.14

UK Macroeconomic MetricApril Actual ValueForecast / Previous MonthAnalysis of Variance & Implications
Public Sector Borrowing (April)GBP 24.34 billionForecast: GBP 20.90 billion 14GBP 3.4 billion overshoot; intensifies fiscal pressure on the government.14
Full-Year Borrowing (to March 2026)GBP 129.00 billion (4.2% of GDP)Forecast: GBP 132.70 billion 14Underperformed initial OBR forecasts by GBP 3.7 billion, hitting a post-2020 low.14
Retail Sales Volume Change (April m/m)-1.3%Forecast: -0.6% 14Consumer spending severely crimped by persistent cost-of-living and energy price pressures.14

European Corporate Developments

The technological momentum generated by Nvidia’s global updates supported major European semiconductor equipment manufacturers.13 Infineon Technologies, STMicroelectronics, ASM International, and ASML recorded daily gains ranging between 2.5 per cent and 3.7 per cent.13

Among mid-cap and domestic firms, clean energy technology developer Ceres Power soared 21 per cent after UBS upgraded its target price by 70 per cent to 970 pence.14 Industrial thermal processing group Bodycote rose 19 per cent following a cash takeover bid of 885 pence per share from Apollo Management.14 Software reseller Softcat climbed 13 per cent after reporting double-digit growth in quarterly gross profits and elevating its full-year earnings expectations.14

On the downside, Spanish perfumery Puig fell approximately 15 per cent after terminating merger negotiations with US cosmetics giant Estée Lauder, while Swiss wealth manager Julius Baer declined 9 per cent due to disappointing net new money inflows.13

Asian Equity Markets

Asian markets advanced decisively, emerging as the primary beneficiaries of the global AI investment cycle and positive developments regarding regional supply chain stability.2

Asian IndexFriday CloseFriday Daily Change (%)Core Weekly Drivers
Nikkei 225 (Japan)63,338.85+2.68%Strong exports (+14.8%) and cooling core inflation.2
Topix Index (Japan)3,892.46+1.00%Robust corporate capital expenditure and weak Yen.1
KOSPI (South Korea)7,847.71+0.41%Samsung wage deal and solid semiconductor demand.2
Kosdaq (South Korea)—+5.00%Speculative momentum in junior high-tech components.1
SSE Composite (China)4,112.90+0.87%Optimism on US-Iran peace talks and state support.2
CSI 300 (China)—+1.30%Heavy inflows into mainland AI and hardware manufacturers.2
Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong)25,606.04+0.86%Speculation around new stock inclusions and Stock Connect inflows.2
BSE Sensex (India)75,415.35+0.31%Easing oil prices, banking sector gains, and stronger Rupee.2
Nifty 50 (India)23,719.30+0.27%Consolidation near record highs; led by financials.2

Japan: Export Surge and Monetary Policy Relief

The Nikkei 225 registered one of its strongest weekly sessions, closing comfortably above 63,300 points.2 Japanese sentiment was underpinned by exceptional trade data, which showed April exports surging 14.8 per cent year-on-year, led by semiconductor manufacturing equipment.2

Simultaneously, Japan’s core consumer price index (CPI) slowed more than expected in April to 1.4 per cent.1 This print represents the lowest inflation rate since March 2022, effectively reducing the immediate pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates at its upcoming meetings.1 This combination of strong external demand, a soft Yen trading near 159 against the US dollar, and accommodative monetary policy expectations created highly favourable conditions for Japanese equities.3 Japanese technology conglomerate SoftBank Group emerged as a key beneficiary of this narrative, gaining 11.89 per cent on Friday to build upon its prior near-20 per cent gain, as investors positioned themselves for further global AI infrastructure spending.2

South Korea: Averted Industrial Action

The KOSPI maintained its position near all-time highs, consolidating after a spectacular 8.42 per cent rally on Thursday.2 South Korean market confidence was heavily bolstered after Samsung Electronics reached a tentative, last-minute wage agreement with its labour union.2 This development successfully averted a planned 18-day strike involving over 48,000 workers, which would have severely disrupted the global supply of memory chips essential for AI processing units.2 The negotiated contract contains a special bonus structure contingent on Samsung reaching an operating profit of USD 130 billion, a threshold the company is widely expected to exceed due to the tight global supply of high-bandwidth memory.2

China and Hong Kong: Structural Tech Optimism

Mainland and Hong Kong benchmarks advanced as the technology sector attracted substantial capital inflows.2 The Hang Seng Index was supported by a 19.77 per cent surge in Lenovo Group, while mainland semiconductor developer SMIC added 7.61 per cent.3 Market participants focused heavily on speculations regarding the inclusion of domestic AI start-ups, such as Zhipu and MiniMax, into the Hang Seng Tech Index.2 Analysts estimate that inclusion via the Stock Connect programme could attract up to HKD 100 billion in capital inflows, highlighting the deep liquidity chasing next-generation computing themes in the region.2

India: Rupee Stabilisation and Sectoral Rotations

The Indian benchmarks, Sensex and Nifty 50, posted moderate gains to close the week on a positive note, supported by an appreciation in the Indian Rupee to approximately 95.68 against the US dollar.2 The rupee’s recovery from its historical lows above 96 was supported by active Reserve Bank of India (RBI) interventions, which helped soothe worries regarding imported inflation and currency-related capital outflows.2

Sectoral performance within India was highly uneven.2 Financial and banking stocks led the market higher, with the Nifty Bank Index climbing 1.15 per cent to settle at 54,055.35, driven by Axis Bank and ICICI Bank.2 Conversely, export-driven sectors underperformed.2 The Nifty IT Index declined 0.37 per cent as the appreciation of the rupee diminished the value of foreign currency earnings.2 Defensive sectors such as healthcare also faced profit-taking, with the Nifty Pharma falling 1.27 per cent.2

On the corporate earnings front, several prominent Indian entities reported divergent results 2:

Indian Corporate EntityFriday Close (INR)Daily Change (%)Key Revenue & Profit MetricsCore Strategic Drivers & Operational Context
Max Healthcare1,023.05-6.24%Revenue: INR 2,541 cr (+10% YoY); Net Profit: INR 387 cr (+3% YoY).2EBITDA margin contracted to 26.8%; Oncology segment fell to 21% share due to institutional drug phase-out; CCI anti-competition case closed.2
Sun Pharmaceutical1,840.00-2.71%Revenue: INR 14,560 cr (+13% YoY); Net Profit: INR 2,714 cr (+26% YoY).2EBITDA missed expectations; US formulation sales fell 1.1% to USD 459m; Organon acquisition highlighted to boost innovative pipeline.2
ONGC289.95-1.99%Q4 Net Profit: INR 8,856 cr (Down over 20% YoY).2Standalone crude production fell; executed INR 62,000 cr capex; expanded green portfolio via PTC Energy and Ayana Renewables.2
ITC Limited302.05-1.95%Revenue: INR 23,821 cr (+17% YoY); Net Profit: INR 5,469 cr (-72.4% YoY).2High base effect from FY25 hotel demerger (INR 15,179 cr gain); core cigarettes rose 32%; FMCG margin expanded 200 bps to 11%.2
Power Grid294.15-1.80%Total FY25 Dividend: INR 9.00 (down from FY24’s INR 11.25).2Dividend outlook trimmed to conserve capital for INR 28k-30k cr future capex; project execution delayed by state-level Right of Way rules.2

Among other notable moves, Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) shares surged following strong Q4 figures and the announcement of its first-ever bonus share issue, while consumer products company Honasa jumped 10 per cent following its maiden dividend declaration.2

Oceania Equity Markets

Equities in Oceania posted solid gains to end the week in positive territory, with both Australian and New Zealand indices capitalising on a late-week rebound in materials and positive domestic trading updates.9

Oceania IndexFriday CloseFriday Daily Change (%)Weekly Change (%)
S&P/ASX 200 (Australia)8,657.00+0.41%+0.45%
S&P/NZX 50 (New Zealand)12,991.31+0.88%+0.20%

Australia: Commodities Rebound and Monetary Policy Context

The S&P/ASX 200 index rebounded on Friday to recoup its weekly losses, closing 0.45 per cent higher for the week.9 The primary driver of this recovery was the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index, which climbed 1.6 per cent on Friday and approximately 4.2 per cent over two sessions, breaking a painful five-day losing streak.9 This commodities rally was supported by an overnight surge in copper and gold prices, alongside stabilising lithium carbonate prices, which have risen 57 per cent year-to-date.17

On the macroeconomic front, Australia’s unemployment rate for April unexpectedly ticked up to 4.5 per cent from 4.3 per cent.9 While a rising jobless rate points to some domestic cooling, the data was viewed constructively by equity traders as it significantly reduces the probability of a June interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).9 The RBA had previously raised the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35 per cent on 5th May, marking its third consecutive hike in 2026.20

Minutes from that meeting suggest the RBA Board will likely maintain a pause in June to assess the delayed transmission of its recent tightening cycle and the impact of the government’s fuel excise relief on consumer sentiment.19

In the corporate space, software provider Energy One saw its target price trimmed to AUD 17.10 from AUD 18.00 by Bell Potter, sending its shares down 5.3 per cent, though brokers maintained a “Buy” rating, citing that AI displacement concerns are largely unwarranted.9

Other resource giants, such as BHP and Rio Tinto, performed strongly on copper’s 10 per cent gains in May, while gold plays like Evolution Mining and Newmont advanced as gold futures reached USD 4,542.2 per ounce.18 Guzman Y Gomez was a standout, gaining 9.57 per cent on Friday.3 Conversely, defensive firms and financials lagged, with Catapult Sports, IAG, Telstra, and Tuas closing in the red.18

New Zealand: Awaiting the RBNZ Decision

The New Zealand benchmark index, the S&P/NZX 50, snapped a weekly decline to close 0.2 per cent higher for the week, tracking positive global tech sentiment and stronger-than-expected domestic retail sales data for the first quarter.10 Double-digit gains were recorded by Oceania Healthcare, which jumped over 9 per cent on Friday, while retirement operator Summerset Group gained 5.3 per cent and logistics leader Mainfreight added 4.3 per cent.10

Despite the positive close, the New Zealand financial sector remains highly focused on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) monetary policy decision on Wednesday, 27th May 2026.10 The official cash rate (OCR) currently stands at 2.25%.24 Although commercial banks unanimously project a pause at this meeting, a major debate is unfolding regarding the RBNZ’s future policy projections.23

New Zealand’s near-term inflation outlook has been significantly disrupted by the Middle East war, with the RBNZ’s own May survey revealing a sharp increase in one-year-ahead inflation expectations, which jumped 82 basis points from 2.59 per cent to 3.41 per cent.26

While central bank Governor Anna Breman has maintained a cautious posture, some commercial economists, including those at Westpac, argue that a rate hike is already fundamentally justified.23 The market expects the RBNZ to issue a highly hawkish statement, with revised OCR projections likely signalling up to two rate hikes later in the year to prevent these elevated energy costs from anchoring long-term inflation expectations.23 Under the revised MPC Charter, if consensus is not reached, individual member votes will be recorded publicly, which adds significant transparency.23

Economic Expectation IndicatorQ2 2026 Survey ValuePrior Survey Value / ChangeCore Drivers & Mechanisms
One-Year-Ahead CPI Inflation3.41%Up 82 basis points (from 2.59%) 26Middle East energy disruptions driving petrol and transport costs higher.26
Two-Year-Ahead CPI Inflation2.53%Up 16 basis points (from 2.37%) 26Rising second-round inflation expectations beginning to impact domestic pricing structures.26
Five-Year-Ahead CPI Inflation2.22%Down 9 basis points (from 2.31%) 26Long-term expectations remain anchored within the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band.26
One-Year-Ahead OCR Expectation3.01%Up 43 basis points (from 2.58%) 26Markets pricing proactive RBNZ monetary tightening to curb persistent inflation.26
One-Year-Ahead Unemployment5.37%Up 42 basis points (from 4.95%) 26Slower domestic economic recovery under the weight of higher borrowing costs.26

Conclusion

The trading week ending 22nd May 2026 underscored the extreme resilience of global corporate profits in the face of persistent geopolitical headwinds.2 The primary engine of market capital growth remains the global artificial intelligence infrastructure build-out, which has proven powerful enough to override severe macroeconomic anxieties, such as rising bond yields and depressed consumer sentiment.3

However, this divergence between corporate equity values and consumer reality is highly dependent on central bank behaviour.3 As new leadership takes the helm at the Federal Reserve, and with the RBA and RBNZ balancing structural energy shocks against softening domestic demand, the path of interest rates will remain the defining variable for equity valuations in the second half of 2026.9 Investors must continue to navigate this delicate landscape, balancing short-term technological optimism against long-term macroeconomic heat.3

Disclaimer

This report is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. The data, statistics, and analysis contained herein are synthesised from various public financial news sources and central bank publications as of May 2026. Global financial markets are subject to high levels of volatility, geopolitical risk, and regulatory changes. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Readers should consult with a licensed financial adviser and conduct thorough independent research before making any investment decisions. No liability is accepted for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly from the use of this material.

References

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